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Daily Commodity Roundup as on Thursday, November 22, 2018
Date : Thursday, November 22, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 1
14.49CRUDE $
54.63
0.12 -0.02 -4.49
IN
TER
NA
TIO
NA
L M
AR
KET U
PD
ATE GOLD $
1227.24SILVER $
USDJPY112.997
0.13 0.08 -0.08EURUSD
1.1397GBPUSD
1.2778
LME
NICKEL
11005
-0.08 -0.6 -0.23
LME
COPPER
6228 LME
ZINC
2559
$ INDEX96.64
0 -0.55 -0.10
LME ALUMINIUM
1955 LME
LEAD
1996
DJIA24466
-0.77 -0.53 -2.21SENSEX
35200NIFTY
10600
Date : Thursday, November 22, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 2
NIKKEI21504
-0.21 -1.82 -0.02USDINR
71.48 S&P
INDEX
2642
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MCX Gold Dec 2018
Gold prices inched up in subdued trade ahead of a U.S. holiday amid weakness in dollar and equities, as concerns about global economic growth gripped financial markets.
Gold prices inched up in subdued trade ahead of a U.S. holiday amid
weakness in dollar and equities, as concerns about global economic
growth gripped financial markets. Investors are now keeping a close eye
on the G20 leaders' summit later this month in Argentina where U.S.
President Donald Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi
Jinping to discuss the bilateral trade dispute. The Trump administration
on Tuesday said that China has failed to alter its "unfair" practices at the
heart of the U.S.-China trade conflict. Fed chair Jerome Powell warned
last week of slowing demand abroad, fading fiscal stimulus at home and
the lagged economic impact of the Fed’s past rate increases, suggesting
that a pause in tightening may well come in 2019. Adding to that
interpretation, Fed vice chairman Richard Clarida told CNBC last Friday
that the rates were currently near neutral levels, while Dallas Fed
president Robert Kaplan also said that he expected a growth slowdown in
Europe and China. Russia produced 157.19 tonnes of gold in the first
seven months of 2018, exactly the same amount as in the same period
last year, the finance ministry said. Production for the period included
129.34 tonnes of mined gold compared with 126.39 tonnes a year ago,
the ministry said. Switzerland exported less gold in October than in any
month since August last year, as shipments to India fell to the lowest in
at least five years, Swiss customs data showed. Russia's gold reserves
stood at 66.4 million troy ounces as of the start of November, the central
bank said. Technically now Gold is getting support at 30735 and below
same could see a test of 30645 level, And resistance is now likely to be
seen at 30905, a move above could see prices testing 30985.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
30775
SUPPORT 3
31075 30985 30905 30735 30645 30565
30895 30725 30825 0.04 7872
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Date : Thursday, November 22, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 3
Trading Ideas :Gold trading range for the day is 30645-30985.
Data showed the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits rose to more than a four-month high last week.
Russia's gold reserves stood at 66.4 million troy ounces as of the start of November, the central bank said.
Switzerland exported less gold in October than in any month since August last year, as shipments to India fell to the lowest in at least five years.
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MCX Silver Dec 2018
Silver prices rose on the back of further speculation that the Federal Reserve may take a less aggressive stance on policy tightening.
Silver prices rose on the back of further speculation that the Federal
Reserve may take a less aggressive stance on policy tightening, while
tension over trade issues between the U.S. and China continued to
provide support for the precious metal. Fed chair Jerome Powell warned
last week of slowing demand abroad, fading fiscal stimulus at home and
the lagged economic impact of the Fed’s past rate increases, suggesting
that a pause in tightening may well come in 2019. New orders for key
U.S.-made capital goods were unexpectedly unchanged in October and
shipments rebounded modestly, which could temper expectations of an
acceleration in business spending on equipment early in the fourth
quarter. Sluggish business spending on equipment together with a
lackluster housing market could fan concerns about the durability of the
economic expansion that is now in its ninth year and the second longest
on record. Other data showed the number of Americans filing applications
for unemployment benefits rose to more than a four-month high last
week. While that will probably not change the view that the labor market
is tightening, it suggests some slowing in the pace of job growth. Federal
Reserve has noted the slowdown in business spending, saying in its policy
statement earlier this month that “business fixed investment has
moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year.” Adding to that
interpretation, Fed vice chairman Richard Clarida told CNBC last Friday
that the rates were currently near neutral levels, while Dallas Fed
president Robert Kaplan also said that he expected a growth slowdown in
Europe and China. Technically now Silver is getting support at 36611 and
below same could see a test of 36314 level, And resistance is now likely
to be seen at 37110, a move above could see prices testing 37312.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
36533 37015
37609 37312 37110 36611 36314 36112
36516 36909 0.87 22232
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3
Date : Thursday, November 22, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 4
Trading Ideas :Silver trading range for the day is 36314-37312.
New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods were unexpectedly unchanged in October and shipments rebounded modestly.
The Trump administration said that China has failed to alter its “unfair” practices at the heart of the U.S.-China trade conflict.
Investors will likely switch focus to the G20 leaders' summit later this month in Argentina where U.S. President is expected to meet with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
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MCX Crudeoil Dec 2018
Crude oil prices gained buoyed by expectations that major oil producers will agree to cut output at a meeting early next month.
Crudeoil on MCX settled up 2.46% at 3949 buoyed by expectations that
major oil producers will agree to cut output at a meeting early next
month. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by 4.9 million barrels
to 446.91 million barrels last week, the Energy Information
Administration (EIA) said. Investors remained on edge, with the IEA
warning of unprecedented uncertainty in oil markets due to a difficult
economic environment and political risk. The American Petroleum
Institute that U.S. commercial crude inventories last week fell
unexpectedly by 1.5 million barrels, to 439.2 million, in the week to Nov.
16. However, Innes said that once U.S. pipeline bottlenecks were
alleviated, which he said he expected in 2019, "the entire notion of a tight
global spare capacity argument goes down the well".Fearing a glut, the
Middle East-dominated producer cartel of the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is considering supply cuts when it
next meets on Dec. 6, although some members, like Iran, are expected
to resist any voluntary reductions. OPEC members are set to meet on
Dec. 6 in Vienna, with a production cut expected to be agreed with non-
OPEC members led by Russia in order to prop up the recent sharp selloff.
Recent reports suggested that the cartel had moved from considering a
reduction of 1 million barrels per day to 1.4 million. Technically market is
under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -
21.84% to settled at 14638 while prices up 95 rupees, now Crudeoil is
getting support at 3867 and below same could see a test of 3785 level,
And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4009, a move above could see
prices testing 4069.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
3872 3987
4151 4069 4009 3867 3785 3725
3845 3949 2.46 14638
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3
Date : Thursday, November 22, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 5
Trading Ideas :Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3785-4069.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by 4.9 million barrels to 446.91 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.
Investors remained on edge, with the IEA warning of unprecedented uncertainty in oil markets due to a difficult economic environment and political risk.
The American Petroleum Institute that U.S. commercial crude inventories last week fell unexpectedly by 1.5 million barrels, to 439.2 million, in the week to Nov. 16.
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MCX Copper Nov 2018
Copper prices rose as a lower dollar and higher equities triggered fund buying but gains were capped as trade tensions between US and China escalated.
Copper on MCX settled up 0.68% at 438.55 while prices are trading in the
range as market sentiment improved as the equity selloff eased while
development of China-US trade conflict will remain in focus in the near
run. Prices shedding some of previous session's gains on worries over
slowing global economic growth amid an escalating trade war between
Washington and Beijing. Trade tensions and higher interest rates are
slowing the global economy, though for now there are no signs of a sharp
downturn, the OECD said, lowering outlook for next year to 3.5 percent
from a previously projected 3.7 percent. The United States and China
clashed on Wednesday at a WTO meeting with a U.S. envoy accusing
Beijing of using the WTO to pursue "non-market" policies and a Chinese
official saying it was Washington that was flouting the rulebook. Base
metals increased for the most part with LME lead leading the gains and
closing 2.45% higher. LME zinc jumped 1.04%, copper rose 0.97%,
aluminium grew 0.64%, while nickel fell 0.5%. The number of Americans
filing applications for jobless benefits rose to more than a four-month
high last week, but the underlying trend remained consistent with a
tightening labour market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits
increased 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 224,000 for the week ended
November 17, the highest level since the end of June, the Labor
Department said on Wednesday. Now a day ahead Trading volume is
likely to remain thin in view of US Thanksgiving holiday while the
eurozone will release initial reading of its consumer confidence index for
November. Technically market is getting support at 435.5 and below
same could see a test of 432.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be
seen at 441.3, a move above could see prices testing 444.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
435.90
SUPPORT 3
447.1 444.0 441.3 435.5 432.4 429.7
440.95 435.10 438.55 0.68 12296
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Copper trading range for the day is 432.4-444.
The United States administration said China has failed to alter its "unfair" practices, adding to tensions ahead of the meeting next week between U.S. and Chinese President.
Traders are keeping a close eye on positions holding large amounts of LME copper warrants and cash contracts, which is fuelling nervousness about nearby availability.
Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 143275mt that is down by -1975mt.
Date : Thursday, November 22, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 6
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MCX Zinc Nov 2018
Zinc gained on short covering after prices dropped after turbulent trade with U.S. stocks and global oil market tumbling amid concerns over global economic growth.
Zinc on MCX settled down -2.18% at 185.90 slipped on unnerved by a
sell-off on share markets and sapped by uncertainty before a meeting of
US and Chinese leaders. Also weighing on base metals was risk-off
sentiment as world stock markets fell in a tech-led sell-off, while the
dollar index rallied from a two-week low, making commodities priced in
the greenback more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Meanwhile the premium of LME cash zinc over the three-month contract
soared to $US97 a tonne by Monday's close, the highest since at least
June 2009, the earliest date for which data is available. It was quoted at
$US85 on Tuesday. This is due to shortages of metal for immediate
delivery as investors with short positions seek to close out or roll over
their contracts ahead of the November expiry on Wednesday. LME three-
month zinc fell 1.9 per cent to end at $US2,551 a tonne. A slide in zinc
inventories on the London Metal Exchange to their lowest in more than a
decade has wrong-footed bearish investors who are scrambling to cover
or roll over futures positions before the November contract expiry. Last
night the US dollar rallied from a two-week low and settled at 96.79 as a
sell-off in global stock markets spurred safe-haven bids and investors
grew concerned about slowing global growth. Global stock markets were
selling off on Tuesday as the tech slump that gripped US equities on
Monday spread around the world. At the US open, all three major indexes
dropped sharply, with the Nasdaq dipping another 2%. Technically market
is getting support at 183.6 and below same could see a test of 181.2
level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 189.6, a move above
could see prices testing 193.2.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
185.9
SUPPORT 3
191.5 189.7 188.5 185.5 183.7 182.5
187.9 184.9 187.3 0.75 2584
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Zinc trading range for the day is 183.7-189.7.
Pressure also seen on weaker Chinese automobile usage in October and a faster-than-expected rise in mined zinc supply.
The premium of LME cash zinc over the three-month contract soared to $US97 a tonne, the highest since at least June 2009.
Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 123275mt that is up by 650mt.
Date : Thursday, November 22, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 7
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MCX Nickel Nov 2018
Nickel prices dropped on worries over slowing global economic growth amid an escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing.
Nickel on MCX settled down -1.05% at 787.90 dropped on long liquidation
tracking weakness from LME Nickel prices which fell 0.8 per cent to end
at $US11,095 a tonne, the lowest since December 14 last year as
tensions between the United States and China escalated ahead of a major
meeting between the two presidents next week. The United States
administration on Tuesday said China has failed to alter its "unfair"
practices, adding to tensions ahead of a high-stakes meeting later this
month between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi
Jinping. Sentiments turned bearish after the news that Norilsk Nickel
plans to expand nickel production to meet growing EV demand. Russian
copper and nickel producer Norilsk Nickel unveiled plans to expand its
nickel and copper production by 15% over seven years in a presentation
to investors in London on Monday November 19. The expansion program,
with a base investment of $6.5-7.5 billion, is expected to be approved in
early 2019. Norilsk Nickel forecasts its production of class-1 battery-grade
nickel grow by 50% by 2025. The Russian producer forecasts growth in
nickel and copper production of up to 15% after 2025 and up to 25% for
platinum and palladium. Primary nickel supply will come mainly from two
mines in the Norilsk region, Talnakh and South Cluster, that are yet to be
fully developed. Now a day ahead the US will release its weekly jobless
claims, durable goods orders and existing home sales for October,
University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for November, as well
as weekly oil inventory data from the EIA today. Technically market is
getting support at 780.6 and below same could see a test of 773.2 level,
And resistance is now likely to be seen at 801.2, a move above could see
prices testing 814.4.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
787.9
SUPPORT 3
802.6 797.4 788.9 775.2 770.0 761.5
792.2 778.5 780.5 -0.94 17273
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Nickel trading range for the day is 770-797.4.
Russia's Norilsk Nickel sees 2019 nickel market deficit at 60 T.
Increasing nickel pig iron production and rising Shanghai nickel inventory kept prices under pressure in recent time.
Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 215322mt that is down by -240mt.
Date : Thursday, November 22, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 8
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NCDEX Jeera Dec 2018
Jeera dropped on profit booking seen after news that Gujarat government is providing water in canal for rabi crops amid scanty rains.
Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 2.17% at 19760 due to firm physical
domestic and exports demands from China and Bangladesh. As per
reports, jeera exports in 2018/19 (Apr-Aug) has crossed 1 lakh tonnes,
up 54.8% compared to exports last year for same period. Moreover,
concern that standing cumin crops might get affected amid scanty
rainfalls also supported upward trend in prices. Deficient rainfall in key
producing region of Gujarat like Saurashtra and Kutch may lower the
acreage. According to the initial trade estimate, there may not be any
increase in the sowing area of jeera because of dry weather. However, if
the producing states receive good irrigation facilities through dams then
the sowing area could see an increase. According to the market
estimates, India has already exported around 1.25 lakh tonnes of jeera so
far this year and there is a possibility of it touching a record 1.75 lakh
tonnes by the end of this fiscal year. As per Gujarat state govt. data,
Jeera progressive area of Rabi 2018-19, 18,400 hectares as compared to
previous Rabi season 59,400 hectares, 6% completed from normal area
318,900 hectares. Current year sowing reported slow due to lower
rainfall. As per current situation, farmers are likely to prefer Jeera over
Coriander due to higher prices. But, lower rainfall may impact yield and in
some areas of Saurashtra and Kutch regions area may come down 10-
15% due to severe drought condition. In Unjha, a key spot market in
Gujarat, jeera edged down by -11.65 Rupees to end at 19880 Rupees per
100 kg.Technically now Jeera is getting support at 19430 and below same
could see a test of 19095 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at
20000, a move above could see prices testing 20235.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
19890
SUPPORT 3
20640 20365 19915 19190 18915 18465
20090 19365 19460 -1.52 4797
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Jeera trading range for the day is 6487-6487.
As per reports, jeera exports in 2018/19 (Apr-Aug) has crossed 1 lakh tonnes, up 54.8% compared to exports last year for same period.
NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 236 tonnes to 2401 tonnes.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera remains unchanged at0 rupees to end at 19955 rupee per 100 kg.
Date : Thursday, November 22, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 9
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NCDEX Turmeric Dec 2018
Turmeric traded in range amid lower than expected exports and domestic demand.
Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.37% at 6454 amid lower than
expected exports and domestic demand. Besides, higher arrivals from
growing regions and reports on higher acreage also weighed on the
prices. As per reports, in October, arrivals of turmeric have been higher at
12,478 tonne compared to 10,978 tonne, last year. As per reports,
standing crop likely to damage around 10 - 20% currently, if higher
temperature will continue next 15 - 20 days damage percentage may go
up to 30-40%. Moreover, turmeric sowing in all major producing states is
higher than last year as weather remained favourable. During the
October, arrivals of turmeric have been higher at 12,478 t (Vs 10,978 t)
compared last year, as per data. As per data released by Commerce
Ministry, turmeric exports during the month of Sep 2018, up 16.5% on
year to 9,064 tonnes (Vs 7,783 tonnes). Turmeric exports in 2018/19
(Apr-Sep) is up 10.6% at 65,547 tonnes compared to 59,285 last year for
the same time. According to the Department of Horticulture and
Plantation Crops of Tamil Nadu, acreage of turmeric in Erode may jump
nearly 80% on year to 5,300 hectare in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) because of
very good rainfall this year and availability of other water sources. In
Telangana, turmeric acreage rose to 47,790 hectare compared to 44,956
hectare a year ago, state government data showed. In Nizamabad, a
major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7178.95 Rupees dropped -
16.5 Rupees.Technically now Turmeric is getting support at 6410 and
below same could see a test of 6366 level, And resistance is now likely to
be seen at 6518, a move above could see prices testing 6582.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
6470
SUPPORT 3
6626 6582 6518 6410 6366 6302
6538 6430 6454 -0.37 12255
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Turmeric trading range for the day is 6366-6582.
Besides, higher arrivals from growing regions and reports on higher acreage also weighed on the prices.
NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 24 tonnes to 3434 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7178.95 Rupees dropped -16.5 Rupees.
Date : Thursday, November 22, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 10
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MCX Menthaoil Nov 2018
Mentha oil prices ended with losses due to surge in arrivals and tepid demand from domestic market weighed on prices.
Mentha oil on MCX settled down by -0.83% at 1641.9 due to surge in
arrivals and tepid demand from domestic market weighed on prices.
Arrivals of mentha oil in Sambhal market doubled to 100 drums (1 drum
= 180 kg). The supply of mentha oil in Chandausi, Uttar Pradesh's major
producing area of mentha oil, has increased. Low demand outlook in
mentha oil in domestic as well as global market due to expectation of
recovery in Indian Rupee against the U.S dollar. Bumper crop harvest has
been discounted in the market and market is moving upwards on rising
demand from end users. Arrivals in Sambhal stood at 400 drums
compared to 350 drum a day ago while in Barabanki supplies rose to 500
drums from 450 drums a day earlier. According to preliminary estimates,
mentha oil production in 2018-19 would be 40,000-45,000 ton against
last year's production of 35,000 tons. There could be chances of crop
damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition. Mandi
Department, which assumes Mentha as an agricultural product and
receives the mandatory duty of one and a half percent, the GST of the
same commerce tax department, Mentha crop, is not considered as
agricultural product and 15 percent GST is charged. Due to this double
tax, the price of mentha product increases, whereas synthetic mentha is
much cheaper, so many companies making mentha products have started
using synthetic mentha. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1819.90
per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.0.50/-.Technically market is under long
liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.42% to
settled at 906 while prices down -13.8 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting
support at 1603.9 and below same could see a test of 1566 level, And
resistance is now likely to be seen at 1665.3, a move above could see
prices testing 1688.8.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
1620.00
SUPPORT 3
1726.7 1688.8 1665.3 1603.9 1566.0 1542.5
1650.90 1589.50 1641.90 -0.83 906
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1566-1688.8.
Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1819.90 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.0.50/-.
Arrivals of mentha oil in Sambhal market doubled to 100 drums (1 drum = 180 kg).
The supply of mentha oil in Chandausi, Uttar Pradesh's major producing area of mentha oil, has increased.
Date : Thursday, November 22, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 11
TIME ZONE Forecast
CommodityLME STOCK Stock
COPPER -1975 143275
ALUMINIUM -525 1072525
NICKEL -240 215322
LEAD -525 109425
ZINC 650 123275
4725 22000 19460 4427 6454 4081 507.7 3419
DAILY MARKET TRADING LEVEL
COMMODITIESNCDEX CHANA Dec
2018
NCDEX Cotton Nov
2018
NCDEX Jeera Dec
2018
NCDEX Guarseed10
Dec 2018
NCDEX Turmeric
Dec 2018
NCDEX Rmseed Dec
2018MCX CPO Nov 2018
NCDEX Soyabean
Dec 2018
NCDEX
Ref.Soya oil
Dec 2018
728.9CLOSE
P. POINT 4729 21930 19640 4450 6474 4077
4788 22130 19915 4510 6518 4101
RESISTANCE
4909 22470 20640 4652 6626 4146
504.5 3420 726
741
4850 22270 20365 4592 6582 4122 516.2 3458 735
523.7 3476
512.0 3438 732
4308 6366 4032 492.8 3382 717
4667 21790 19190 4368 6410 4056 500.3 3400
714
Cng in OI -10.31 -4.82 -5.55 -1.44 -3.54 -7.05 -17.46 -0.90 -1.46
SUPPORT
4546 21450 18465 4226 6302 4011 488.6 3362
723
4608 21590 18915
Short Covering
LME DAILY STOCK POSITION ECONOMICAL DATA
DATA Previous
6:00pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts 0 0
TREND Short Covering Short Covering Long Liquidation Long Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Covering Short Covering Short Covering
All Day USD Bank Holiday 0 0
8:30pm EUR Consumer Confidence -3 -3
0 0 0 0 0
0:00 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
Date : Thursday, November 22, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 12
-1975
-525
-240
-525
650
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
COPPER ALUMINIUM NICKEL LEAD ZINC
LME STOCK
NEWS YOU CAN USE
A “really strong” U.S. economy is likely to continue growing, but softness in housing and high levels of corporate debt have caught the Federal Reserve’s eye, Chairman
Jerome Powell said. Powell, quizzed by Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan in an hour-long conversation, was not asked directly about possible further rate
increases, but said nothing to counter the expectation that the Fed will raise rates again when it meets in December. However he did enumerate a set of concerns that
have begun to arise among Fed officials as they debate how much further and how fast to raise their short-term policy rate, a benchmark for other borrowing costs in the
economy. “Slowing growth abroad. The tax cuts and spending increases that were enacted are providing some real boost right now, but that impetus is going to wear off
over time,” Powell said when asked to list the “headwinds” the economy may face in coming months. Earlier in the session he pointed to recent weakness in housing as a
concern. And while he said he regarded financial risks overall as “pretty moderate,” with neither banks nor households heavily leveraged, he said corporate borrowing had
caught the Fed’s attention. “There are a lot of factors weighing on home building right now. Material costs, labor scarcity ... It is rates as well,” with the costs of home
mortgages rising, Powell said.
The weakness in euro zone economic growth is not significant enough for the European Central Bank to alter its policy path, even if the outlook remains uncertain, Dutch
policymaker Klaas Knot said. Growth slowed to a quarterly 0.2 percent in the third quarter as the German economy contracted, raising fears that the currency bloc’s five-
year expansion may be coming to an end just as the ECB plans to dial back stimulus. “At this point in time, the impact is not such that it would take us to fundamentally
change our outlook,” Knot, a hawk on the ECB’s Governing Council, told. He pointed to high capacity utilization, a tight labor market and years of growth in excess of
potential as signs that the bloc is now more resilient than earlier. Knot declined to say when the ECB would raise interest rates from record lows. Keeping them steady
until next summer was the bank’s expectation, not a commitment, he said, and the actual outcome could be on “either side” of this expectation. “The market is
acknowledging that the interest rate has become our instrument of marginal policy adjustment,” Knot said. “So it’s unsurprising that economic news about the euro
area... gets reflected in expectations of our first rate hike.” He also dismissed the suggestion that the ECB would change policy to help Italy, which is facing rising
borrowing costs as it is locked into a budget dispute with the European Commission.
Tepid progress in the planting of pulses and coarse cereals has pulled down total rabi sown area by 20 per cent till the weekend compared to the corresponding week in
the 2017-18 season, according to data released by the Agriculture Ministry. However, the planting of wheat has begun on a strong note with acreage registering a 20 per
cent increase. The total rabi acreage so far stands at 110.71 lakh hectares (lha) against 138 lha at the same time last year. The most affected is the cultivation of pulses,
particularly gram or chana. The acreage under chana is down in both the major growing States of Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka, which is reeling a drought. The total
pulses acreage stood at 39 lha compared to 54.34 lha in the corresponding period last season. The sowing of lentil, too, was poor compared last year with the area
covered was at only 3.11 lha, 41 per cent lower than that in corresponding period last year. Similarly, poor sowing of jowar in Maharashtra — another State hit by drought
— and Karnataka has affected acreage under coarse cereals. Against 22.65 lha planted same week last year, the area covered this year is 14.14 lha, or down about 38
per cent. Oilseeds coverage, too, is down 9 per cent over last year on account of a drop in mustard/rapeseed cultivation. Oilseeds farmers have sown 37.09 lha compared
to 40.86 lha last year.
Date : Thursday, November 22, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 13
Date : Thursday, November 22, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 14
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