dabur financial modeling-live project

(Rs in Mn) Pg no 1472006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009

Consumer Care 17699.3 18826.6 21749.1y-o-y (growth ) 6% 16%Health Division 1507.6 1603.4 2445.5y-o-y (growth ) 6% 53%Foods 2493.3 3027.9 3351y-o-y (growth ) 21% 11%Retail 0.494 59.7y-o-y (growth ) 120%Others 439.8 504.3 735.8y-o-y (growth ) 15% 46%Total Revenue 22140 23962.694 28341.1y-o-y (growth ) 8% 18%

Consumer Care Division 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009Net sales 16361.6 18641.9 22071.4(-)Cost of material (7,430.29) (8,961.07) (10,398.52)Manufacturing expenses (568.17) (689.06) (749.42)Gross profit 8,363.14 8,991.78 10,923.46 Payments to & provision to employees (1,275.27) (1,601.23) (1,773.42)Selling and administrative expenses (3,683.38) (4,428.86) (4,722.05)EBITDA 3,404.50 2,961.69 4,427.99 Depreciation (145.60) (153.80) (189.30)EBIT 3,258.90 2,807.89 4,238.69

Health Division 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009Net sales 1507.6 1787.9 2123.2(-)Cost of material (685.48) (653.10) (992.41)Manufacturing expenses (52.42) (50.22) (71.52)Gross profit 769.70 1,084.58 1,059.27 Payments to & provision to employees (117.65) (116.70) (169.25)Selling and administrative expenses (339.81) (322.79) (450.66)EBITDA 312.24 645.09 439.35 Depreciation (14.10) (16.40) (20.20)EBIT 298.14 628.69 419.15

Foods 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009Net sales 2493.3 2974.8 3351(-)Cost of material (1,331.73) (1,233.90) (1,766.27)Manufacturing expenses (101.83) (94.88) (127.29)Gross profit 1,059.74 1,646.02 1,457.43 Payments to & provision to employees (228.57) (220.48) (301.23)

Selling and administrative expenses (660.17) (609.84) (802.08)EBITDA 171.00 815.70 354.12 Depreciation (70.30) (74.30) (91.50)EBIT 100.70 741.40 262.62

Retail 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009Net sales 5 59.7(-)Cost of material - (40.29) (151.03)Manufacturing expenses - (3.10) (10.88)Gross profit - (38.39) (102.21)Payments to & provision to employees - (7.20) (25.76)Selling and administrative expenses - (19.91) (68.58)EBITDA - (65.50) (196.55)Depreciation 0.00 (3.10) (3.80)EBIT - (68.60) (200.35)

Others 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009Net sales 439.8 557.8 735.8(-)Cost of material (263.33) (265.57) (453.47)Manufacturing expenses (20.14) (20.42) (32.68)Gross profit 156.33 271.81 249.65 Payments to & provision to employees (45.20) (47.45) (77.34)Selling and administrative expenses (130.54) (131.25) (205.92)EBITDA (19.41) 93.10 (33.61)Depreciation (21.20) (22.90) (28.20)EBIT (40.61) 70.20 (61.81)

Profit & Loss 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009Total sales 20,802.30 23,967.40 28,341.10 (-) Excise duty (371.10) (352.05) (286.80)Net sales 20,431.20 23,615.35 28,054.30 (-)Cost of material (9,710.83) (11,153.93) (13,761.70)Manufacturing expenses (742.55) (857.67) (991.80)Gross profit 9,977.82 11,603.74 13,300.80 Payments to & provision to employees (1,666.68) (1,993.07) (2,347.00)Selling and administrative expenses (4,813.90) (5,512.65) (6,249.30)EBITDA 3,497.24 4,098.02 4,704.50 Depreciation (251.20) (270.50) (333.00)Unallocated Depreciation (91.70) (93.90) (115.60)EBIT 3,154.34 3,733.62 4,255.90 Interest (153.75) (167.99) (232.10)other income 259.12 340.13 468.50 PBT 3,259.71 3,905.76 4,492.30

Miscellaneous Expenditure (64.94) (56.68) (43.80) Current Tax (349.40) (427.72) (499.40) Deferred Tax 13.69 (7.53) 25.50 Fringe Benefit (37.47) (71.27) (66.50) PAT 2,821.59 3,342.56 3,908.10

2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-20132013-2014 2014-2015 2015-201626254.2 31969.6

21% 22%2795.5 3152.1

14% 13%4158 4948.724% 19%91.8 20554% 1%

867.2 823.118% -5%

34166.7 41098.521% 20%

2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-20132013-2014 2014-2015 2015-201626254.2 31969.6

(11,570.52) (14,500.20) (773.44) (1,177.43) 13,910.24 16,291.97 (2,124.53) (2,452.28) (6,134.67) (7,158.20) 5,651.03 6,681.49

(213.90) (265.50) 5,437.13 6,415.99

2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-20132013-2014 2014-2015 2015-20162795.5 3152.1

(1,250.17) (1,447.65) (83.57) (117.55) 1,461.77 1,586.90 (229.55) (244.83) (662.84) (714.65) 569.38 627.43

(22.40) (27.80)546.98 599.63

2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-20132013-2014 2014-2015 2015-20164158 4948.7

(2,084.00) (2,458.43) (139.31) (199.63) 1,934.70 2,290.65 (382.65) (415.77)

(1,104.93) (1,213.63) 447.11 661.24

(99.50) (123.50) 347.61 537.74

2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-20132013-2014 2014-2015 2015-201691.8 205

(112.49) (180.77) (7.52) (14.68) (28.21) 9.55 (20.66) (30.57) (59.64) (89.24) (108.51) (110.27)

(12.50) (15.50) (121.01) (125.77)

2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-20132013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016867.2 823.1

(490.22) (465.66) (32.77) (37.81) 344.21 319.63 (90.01) (78.75) (259.91) (229.88) (5.71) 11.01

(29.90) (37.10) (35.61) (26.09)

2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-20132013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 34,166.70 41,098.50 (262.00) (324.20) 33,904.70 40,774.30 (15,507.40) (19,052.70) (1,036.60) (1,547.10) 17,360.70 20,174.50 (2,847.40) (3,222.20) (8,222.00) (9,405.60) 6,291.30 7,546.70 (378.20) (469.40) (124.60) (154.60) 5,788.50 6,922.70 (202.10) (303.40) 482.20 651.70 6,068.60 7,271.00

(59.40) (192.20) (955.60) (1,329.70) (49.10) (60.10) - - 5,004.50 5,689.00

Segment wise cost ( Rs in Mn) Pg no 1472006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010

Consumer Care 12063.3 18082.6 16386.6 19059.2Health Division 1112.9 1317.9 1563.9 2059.3Foods 2162.1 2489.9 2783.4 3432.8Retail 81.3 238 185.3Others 427.53 535.9 714.6 807.5Total cost 15765.83 22507.6 21686.5 25544.1

Segment wise proportion of cost 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010

Consumer Care 76.5% 80.3% 75.6% 74.6%Health Division 7.1% 5.9% 7.2% 8.1%Foods 13.7% 11.1% 12.8% 13.4%Retail 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 0.7%Others 2.7% 2.4% 3.3% 3.2%Total cost 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Cost as per proportionConsumer Care 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010Cost of material (9,710.83) (11,153.94) (13,761.70) (15,507.40)

(7,430.29) (8,961.07) (10,398.52) (11,570.52)Manufacturing expenses (742.55) (857.67) (991.80) (1,036.60)

(568.17) (689.06) (749.42) (773.44)Payments to & provision to employees (1,666.68) (1,993.07) (2,347.00) (2,847.40)

(1,275.27) (1,601.23) (1,773.42) (2,124.53)Selling and administrative expenses (4,813.90) (5,512.65) (6,249.30) (8,222.00)

(3,683.38) (4,428.86) (4,722.05) (6,134.67)Depreciation 145.6 153.8 189.3 214

Health Division 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010Cost of material (9,710.83) (11,153.94) (13,761.70) (15,507.40)

(685.48) (653.10) (992.41) (1,250.17)Manufacturing expenses (742.55) (857.67) (991.80) (1,036.60)

(52.42) (50.22) (71.52) (83.57)Payments to & provision to employees (1,666.68) (1,993.07) (2,347.00) (2,847.40)

(117.65) (116.70) (169.25) (229.55)Selling and administrative expenses (4,813.90) (5,512.65) (6,249.30) (8,222.00)

(339.81) (322.79) (450.66) (662.84)Depreciation 14.1 16.4 20.2 22.4

Foods 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010Cost of material (9,710.83) (11,153.94) (13,761.70) (15,507.40)

(1,331.73) (1,233.90) (1,766.27) (2,084.00)Manufacturing expenses (742.55) (857.67) (991.80) (1,036.60)

(101.83) (94.88) (127.29) (139.31)Payments to & provision to employees (1,666.68) (1,993.07) (2,347.00) (2,847.40)

(228.57) (220.48) (301.23) (382.65)Selling and administrative expenses (4,813.90) (5,512.65) (6,249.30) (8,222.00)

(660.17) (609.84) (802.08) (1,104.93)Depreciation 70.3 74.3 91.5 99.5

Retail 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010Cost of material (9,710.83) (11,153.94) (13,761.70) (15,507.40)

- (40.29) (151.03) (112.49)Manufacturing expenses (742.55) (857.67) (991.80) (1,036.60)

- (3.10) (10.88) (7.52)Payments to & provision to employees (1,666.68) (1,993.07) (2,347.00) (2,847.40)

- (7.20) (25.76) (20.66)Selling and administrative expenses (4,813.90) (5,512.65) (6,249.30) (8,222.00)

- (19.91) (68.58) (59.64)Depreciation 3.1 3.8 12.5

Others 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010Cost of material (9,710.83) (11,153.94) (13,761.70) (15,507.40)

(263.33) (265.57) (453.47) (490.22)Manufacturing expenses (742.55) (857.67) (991.80) (1,036.60)

(20.14) (20.42) (32.68) (32.77)Payments to & provision to employees (1,666.68) (1,993.07) (2,347.00) (2,847.40)

(45.20) (47.45) (77.34) (90.01)Selling and administrative expenses (4,813.90) (5,512.65) (6,249.30) (8,222.00)

(130.54) (131.25) (205.92) (259.91)Depreciation 21.2 22.9 28.2 29.9

2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010Un allocated depreciation 91.7 93.9 115.6 125

Miscellaneous Expenditure 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010Net Sales 20,431.35 23,610.64 28,054.30 33,904.70 Miscellaneous Expenditure (64.94) (56.68) (43.80) (59.40)% of net sales (0.0032) (0.0024) (0.0016) (0.0018)

2010-2011 2011-20122012-20132013-20142014-20152015-201623774.9

2373.64030.9

296.4763.5

31239.3

2010-2011 2011-20122012-20132013-20142014-20152015-201676.1%

7.6%12.9%

0.9%2.4%

100.0%

2010-2011 2011-20122012-20132013-20142014-20152015-2016 (19,052.70) (14,500.20) (1,547.10) (1,177.43) (3,222.20) (2,452.28) (9,405.60) (7,158.20)

266

2010-2011 2011-20122012-20132013-20142014-20152015-2016 (19,052.70) (1,447.65) (1,547.10) (117.55) (3,222.20) (244.83) (9,405.60) (714.65)

27.8

2010-2011 2011-20122012-20132013-20142014-20152015-2016 (19,052.70)

(2,458.43) (1,547.10) (199.63) (3,222.20) (415.77) (9,405.60) (1,213.63)

124

2010-2011 2011-20122012-20132013-20142014-20152015-2016 (19,052.70) (180.77) (1,547.10) (14.68) (3,222.20) (30.57) (9,405.60) (89.24)

15.5

2010-2011 2011-20122012-20132013-20142014-20152015-2016 (19,052.70) (465.66) (1,547.10) (37.81) (3,222.20) (78.75) (9,405.60) (229.88)

37.1

2010-2011 2011-20122012-20132013-20142014-20152015-2016155

2010-2011 2011-20122012-20132013-20142014-20152015-2016 40,774.30 (192.20) (0.0047)

Dabur(in Rs million) FY06 FY07

Income Sheet

Net Sales 19,129.0 22,596.0 Cost of Sales (excluding D&A) 8,980.0 10,824.0 Gross Profit 10,149.0 11,772.0

SG&A Expense (6,990.0) (6,348.0) Other Expense/ (Income) (1,449.0) (1,666.0) EBITDA 1,710.0 3,758.0 Depreciation (104.0) (1,597.0) Amortization (649.4) (426.2) EBIT 956.6 1,734.8

Interest Expense 1,547.0 (153.0) Interest Income Pretax Income 2,503.6 1,581.8

Income Taxes (300.0) (373.0) Net Income 2,203.6 1,208.8

Diluted Weighted Average Shares (millions) 869,534,762.0

EPS 3.0 3.2

Margins

Gross Margin (excluding D&A) 0.5 0.5 SG&A Expense as % of Net Sales 0.4 0.3 Other Expense/ (Income) as % of Net Sales 0.1 0.1 EBITDA Margin 0.1 0.2 EBIT Margin 0.1 0.1 Net Income Margin 0.1 0.1

Growth Rate Analysis Net Sales Growth Rate 0.2 EBITDA Growth Rate 1.2 Net Income Growth Rate (0.5) EPS Growth Rate 0.1

Effective Tax Rate 0.1 0.2

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E

Forecast 23,610.0 28,054.3 33,904.7 40,774.3 47,705.9 12,011.0 14,753.6 16,544.0 20,599.1 24,330.0 11,599.0 13,300.7 17,360.7 20,175.2 23,375.9

(5,512.0) (6,249.2) (8,222.0) (8,503.0) (10,972.4) (1,993.0) (2,347.0) (2,847.4) (3,022.0) (3,339.4) 4,094.0 4,704.6 6,291.3 8,650.2 9,064.1 (364.0) (448.6) (502.7) (624.0) (6,457.3) (566.8) (43.9) (59.4) (192.2) 7,950.3 3,163.2 4,212.1 5,729.2 7,834.0 10,557.1

(167.0) (232.1) (202.1) (303.4)

2,996.2 3,980.0 5,527.1 7,530.6 10,557.1

(266.0) (591.4) (1,004.7) (1,389.8) (2,111.4) 2,730.2 3,388.6 4,522.4 6,140.8 8,445.7

869,063,210.0 869,156,259.0 870,668,806.0 1,749,664,278.0 1,700,000,000.0

3.8 4.18 4.96 2.70 4.97

0.5 47% 51% 49% 49% 0.2 22% 24% 21% 23% 0.1 8% 8% 7% 7% 0.2 17% 19% 21% 19% 0.1 15% 17% 19% 22% 0.1 12% 13% 15% 18%

0.0 19% 21% 20% 17% 0.1 15% 34% 37% 5% 1.3 24% 33% 36% 38% 0.2 10% 19% -46% 84%

0.1 15% 18% 18% 20%

FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E

55,815.9 65,304.6 76,406.4 89,395.5 28,466.1 33,305.4 38,967.3 45,591.7 27,349.8 31,999.3 37,439.2 43,803.8

(12,837.7) (15,020.1) (17,573.5) (20,561.0) (3,907.1) (4,571.3) (5,348.5) (6,257.7) 10,605.0 12,407.9 14,517.2 16,985.2 (7,368.8) (8,435.2) (9,682.9) (11,142.7) 8,053.8 8,174.9 8,316.7 8,482.5 11,290.1 12,147.7 13,151.0 14,324.9

11,290.1 12,147.7 13,151.0 14,324.9

(2,258.0) (2,429.5) (2,630.2) (2,865.0) 9,032.1 9,718.1 10,520.8 11,459.9

1,700,000,000.0 1,700,000,000.0 1,700,000,000.0 1,700,000,000.0

5.31 5.72 6.19 6.74

49% 49% 49% 49%23% 23% 23% 23%

7% 7% 7% 7%19% 19% 19% 19%20% 19% 17% 16%16% 15% 14% 13%

17% 17% 17% 17%17% 17% 17% 17%

7% 8% 8% 9%7% 8% 8% 9%

20% 20% 20% 20%

Dabur( Rs million) FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09

Balance Sheet Forecast

SOURCES OF FUND

Shareholder's fund share capital 573.0 862.9 864.0 865.0

reserve and surplus 4,397.0 3,932.8 5,311.7 7,322.9

Total ahare holder fund 4,970.0 4,795.7 6,175.7 8,187.9

minority interest 54.0 44.0 47.0 45.0

Loan funds

secured loans 808.0 1,056.0 975.0 956.0

unsecurd loans 235.0 542.0 16.0 1,319.0

deffered tax liability 171.0 258.0 272.0 304.0

Total 6,238.0 6,695.7 7,485.7 10,811.9

APPLICATION OF FUND Fixed assets

Gross block 7,214.0 6,172.0 7,296.0 8,585.0

Less:depreciation (2,090.0) (2,380.0) (2,644.0) (2,993.0)

net block 5,124.0 3,792.0 4,652.0 5,592.0

intangibles 1,773.0 323.0 391.0 370.0

Investments 421.0 806.0 2,037.0 3,469.0

Deferred tax asset 13.0 14.0 240.0 235.0

Current asset loans and adva.

Inventories 2,127.0 2,571.0 3,024.0 3,754.0

Account recievables 743.0 1,419.0 1,723.0 1,778.0

Cash aqnd bank balances 511.0 606.0 765.0 1,484.0

loans and advances 1,330.0 1,807.0 2,225.0 2,490.0

Total current asset 4,711.0 6,403.0 7,737.0 9,506.0

less: currient liability and provision

Liabilities 3,028.0 3,624.0 4,579.0 4,816.0

provisions 1,332.0 893.0 2,740.0 3,259.0

Total current liability 4,360.0 4,517.0 7,319.0 8,075.0

Net current assets 351.0 1,886.0 418.0 1,431.0

Misellaneous expenditure 328.0 198.0 139.0 86.0

Total 6,237.0 6,696.0 7,486.0 10,813.0

FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY2015

869.0 1,740.0 1,800.0 1,800.0 1,800.0 1,800.0

11,427.0 12,170.0 17,125.3 22,488.7 28,259.6 34,507.1

12,296.0 13,910.0 18,925.3 24,288.7 30,059.6 36,307.1

37.0 40.0 56.0 56.0 60.0 64.0

702.0 7,031.0 7,031.0 7,031.0 7,031.0 7,031.0

1,090.0 7,806.0 7,815.0 17,602.0 26,094.0 34,782.0

106.0 189.0 189.0 189.0 189.0 189.0

14,231.0 28,976.0 34,016.3 49,166.7 63,433.6 ###

9,857.0 19,337.0 21,417.8 24,095.9 27,415.5 31,485.8

(3,390.0) (4,350.0) (6,457.3) (7,368.8) (8,435.2) (9,682.9)

9,476.0 19,288.0 14,960.5 16,727.1 18,980.3 21,802.9

308.0 7,902.0 72,029.8 65,092.3 58,223.4 51,434.9

2,641.0 4,274.0 4,274.0 4,274.0 4,274.0 4,274.0

- - 2,353.0 2,353.0 2,353.0 2,353.0

4,262.0 7,085.0 7,998.9 9,358.7 10,949.7 12,811.2

1,430.0 3,554.0 3,921.0 4,587.6 5,367.5 6,280.0 1,923.0 2,724.0 6,388.7 17,892.4 28,558.9 39,100.1

3,673.0 5,161.0 6,201.8 7,256.1 8,489.6 9,932.8

11,288.0 18,524.0 24,510.4 39,094.8 53,365.8 68,124.1

4,669.0 7,140.0 5,999.2 7,019.0 8,212.3 9,608.4

4,532.0 6,982.0 6,082.5 6,262.5 7,327.2 8,572.8

9,201.0 14,122.0 12,081.7 13,281.6 15,539.5 18,181.2

2,087.0 4,402.0 12,428.7 25,813.2 37,826.3 49,943.0

27.0 1,012.0

14,231.0 28,976.0 34,016.2 49,167.3 63,433.6 ###

FY2016

1,800.0

41,312.2

43,112.2

86.0

7,031.0

43,681.0

189.0

94,099.2

36,434.3

(11,142.7)

25,291.6

44,740.4

4,274.0

2,353.0

14,989.1

7,347.6 49,494.7

11,621.4

83,452.7

11,241.8

10,030.2

21,272.0

62,180.7

94,099.4

Dabur(Rs million) FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09

Cash Flow Statement Forecast

Operating Activities

Net IncomeDepreciationAmortizationChange in Working CapitalChange in Other Long Term Assets & LiabilitiesCash Flow from Operating Activities

Investment Activities

Capital ExpendituresAdditions to IntangiblesCash Flow from Investing Activities

Cash Flow Available for Financing Activities - -

Financing Activities

Proceeds from/ (repayment of) RevolverIssuance of Long Term Debt(Repayment) of Long Term DebtIssuance/ (Repurchase of) EquityDividendsOption ProceedsCash Flow from Financing Activities

Effects of Exchange Rates on Cash

Net Change in CashBeginning Cash BalanceEnding Cash Balance 511 606 765 1484

FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E

Forecast

8445.7 9032.1 9718.1 10520.86457.3 7368.8 8435.2 9682.97950.3 8053.8 8174.9 8316.7

-6217.0 1880.8 1346.5 1575.5 - - - -

16636.3 26335.5 27674.8 30095.8

(8,587) (10,047) (11,755) (13,753) (954) (1,116) (1,306) (1,528) (9,541) (11,163) (13,061) (15,281)

- - 7,095.2 15,172.3 14,613.9 14,814.5

-52.2 -55.8 -60.0 -65.0-3378.3 -3612.8 -3887.2 -4208.3

-3430.4 -3668.6 -3947.3 -4273.3

3,664.71 11,503.65 10,666.59 10,541.20 2724 6389 17892 28559

1923 2724 6,388.71 17,892.36 28,558.95 39,100.15

FY16E

11459.911142.7

8482.51843.3

- 32928.4

(16,091) (1,788) (17,879)

15,049.3

-70.8-4584.0

-4654.8

10,394.50 39100

49,494.65

Dabur(Rs million) FY06 FY07 FY08

Working Capital Schedule Forecast

Net Sales 19,129.0 22,596.0 23,610.0 Cost of Sales (excluding D&A) 8,980.0 10,824.0 12,011.0

Working Capital Balances

Accounts Receivable, net 7,435.0 14,197.1 17,232.0

Inventory 21,277.8 25,710.8 30,248.4

Other Current Assets 13,301.9 18,071.8 22,253.2

Total Non Cash Current Assets 42,014.8 57,979.7 69,733.5

Accounts Payable 30,280.6 36,241.0 45,796.7

Accrued Liabilities/provisions 13,329.3 8,934.4 27,410.0

Other Current Liabilities Total Non-Debt Current Liabilities 43,609.9 45,175.5 73,206.7

Net Working Capital/ (Deficit) (1,595.2) 12,804.2 (3,473.1)

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (14,399.3) 16,277.3

Ratios & Assumptions

Accounts Receivable, net (Collection period in days) 141.9 229.3 266.4 Inventory (Days outstanding) 864.9 867.0 919.2 Other Current Assets (% of Net Sales) 0.7 0.8 0.9

Accounts Payable (Days Payable) 1,230.8 1,222.1 1,391.7 Accrued Liabilities (% of COGS) 1.5 0.8 2.3 Other Current Liabilities (% of COGS)

Cash Flow from Individual line items

Accounts Receivable, net (6,762.1) (3,034.9) Inventory (4,433.0) (4,537.6) Other Current Assets (4,769.8) (4,181.4) Accounts Payable (5,960.4) (9,555.7) Accrued Liabilities 4,394.9 (18,475.5) Other Current Liabilities (Incease)/ Decrease in Working Capital (17,530.5) (39,785.0)

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

Forecast

28,054.3 33,904.7 40,774.3 47,705.9 55,815.9 65,304.6 14,753.6 16,544.0 20,599.1 24,330.0 28,466.1 33,305.4

17,788.4 11,984.0 35,547.0 3,921.0 4,587.6 5,367.5 37,546.9 42,622.0 70,853.0 7,998.9 9,358.7 10,949.7 24,902.4 36,739.0 51,610.0 6,201.8 7,256.1 8,489.6 80,237.7 91,345.0 158,010.0 18,121.7 21,202.4 24,806.8

48,165.3 46,693.0 71,403.0 5,999.2 7,019.0 8,212.3 32,599.6 45,329.0 74,350.0 6,082.5 6,262.5 7,327.2

80,764.9 92,022.0 145,753.0 12,081.7 13,281.6 15,539.5

(527.2) (677.0) 12,257.0 6,040.0 7,920.8 9,267.4

(2,945.9) 149.8 (12,934.0) 6,217.0 (1,880.8) (1,346.5)

231.4 129.0 318.2 30.0 30.0 30.0 928.9 940.3 1,255.5 120.0 120.0 120.0 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.1

1,191.6 1,030.2 1,265.2 90.0 90.0 90.0 2.2 2.7 3.6 0.3 0.2 0.2

(556.4) 5,804.4 (23,563.0) 31,626.0 666.6 779.9 (7,298.5) (5,075.1) (28,231.0) 62,854.1 1,359.8 1,591.0 (2,649.2) (11,836.6) (14,871.0) 45,408.2 1,054.3 1,233.5 (2,368.6) 1,472.3 (24,710.0) 65,403.8 1,019.9 1,193.2 (5,189.6) (12,729.5) (29,021.0) 68,267.5 180.0 1,064.6

(18,062.3) (22,364.5) (120,396.0) 273,559.6 4,280.6 5,862.3

FY15E FY16E

76,406.4 89,395.5 Number of days assumption 365 38,967.3 45,591.7

6,280.0 7,347.6 12,811.2 14,989.1 9,932.8 11,621.4 29,024.0 33,958.1

9,608.4 11,241.8 8,572.8 10,030.2

18,181.2 21,272.0

10,842.8 12,686.1

(1,575.5) (1,843.3)

30.0 30.0 120.0 120.0 0.1 0.1

90.0 90.0 0.2 0.2

912.5 1,067.6 1,861.5 2,177.9 1,443.2 1,688.6 1,396.1 1,633.4 1,245.6 1,457.4

6,858.9 8,024.9

Dabur(Rs million) FY06 FY07 FY08

Depreciation Schedule Forecast

Net Sales 19,129.0 22,596.0 23,610.0

Capital Expenditures 2,192.0 4,284.8

Capital Expenditures as % of Net Sales 0.1 0.2

Beginning Net PP&E Capital Expenditures (Depreciation Expense) (Asset Sales and write offs) Ending Net PP&E

Existing Net PP&E, net From:

Land Existing PP&E Depreciable PP&E, net Years

Useful Life Years 10-15

SYD

PPE breakup for 2011 amount remainig life prop. Of assets land 1,575.0 N/A 0.0 Building Improvement 31,631.0 10.0 0.5 machinery and equip. 27,568.0 10.0 0.4 Automobiles 939.0 8.0 0.0 Total 61,713.0

Total capex breakup

land Building Improvement machinery and equip. Automobiles

Building improvement years useful life Building improvement 31,631.0 10.0 Depreciation expense(existing)

CAPEX Uuseful life Years

2,012.0 4,401.3 10.0 2,013.0 5,149.5 10.0 2,014.0 6,024.9 10.0 2,015.0 7,049.2 10.0 2,016.0 8,247.5 10.0

Total Depreciation Expense(Building improvement)

Machinery and equipment useful life years Machinery and equipment 27,568.0 10.0 Depreciation expense

CAPEX Uuseful life Years

2,012.0 3,836.0 10.0 2,013.0 4,488.1 10.0 2,014.0 5,251.0 10.0 2,015.0 6,143.7 10.0 2,016.0 7,188.1 10.0

Total Depreciation Expense(machinary and equipment)

Automobiles useful life years Automobiles 939.0 8.0 Depreciation expense

CAPEX Uuseful life Years

2,012.0 130.7 8.0 2,013.0 152.9 8.0 2,014.0 178.9 8.0 2,015.0 209.3 8.0 2,016.0 244.8 8.0

Total Depreciation Expense(Automobiles)

Total depreciation expense (104.0) (1,597.0) (364.0)

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E

Forecast

28,054.3 33,904.7 40,774.3 47,705.9 55,815.9 65,304.6 76,406.4

5,139.6 8,969.1 18,659.0 8,587.1 10,046.9 11,754.8 13,753.2

0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

19,288.0 21,417.8 24,095.9 27,415.5 8,587.1 10,046.9 11,754.8 13,753.2 (6,457.3) (7,368.8) (8,435.2) (9,682.9) -

19,288.0 21,417.8 24,095.9 27,415.5 31,485.8

<<staight line method>> <<staight line method>> <<staight line method>>

FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E 8,587.1 10,046.9 11,754.8 13,753.2

219.2 256.4 300.0 351.0 4,401.3 5,149.5 6,024.9 7,049.2 3,836.0 4,488.1 5,251.0 6,143.7 130.7 152.9 178.9 209.3

3,163.1 3,163.1 3,163.1 3,163.1

220.1 440.1 440.1 440.1 257.5 515.0 515.0

301.2 602.5 352.5

3,383.2 3,860.7 4,419.4 5,073.1

2,756.8 2,756.8 2,756.8 2,756.8

191.8 383.6 383.6 383.6 224.4 448.8 448.8

262.6 525.1 307.2

2,948.6 3,364.8 3,851.8 4,421.5

117.4 117.4 117.4 117.4

8.2 16.3 16.3 16.3 9.6 19.1 19.1

11.2 22.4 13.1

125.5 143.3 164.0 188.3

(448.6) (502.7) (624.0) 6,457.3 7,368.8 8,435.2 9,682.9

FY16E

89,395.5 16,091.2

0.2

31,485.8 16,091.2 (11,142.7)

36,434.3

FY16E 16,091.2

410.7 8,247.5 7,188.1 244.8

3,163.1

440.1 515.0 602.5 704.9 412.4

5,838.0

2,756.8

383.6 448.8 525.1 614.4 359.4

5,088.1

117.4

16.3 19.1 22.4 26.2 15.3

216.6

11,142.7

Dabur(Rs million) FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09

Depreciation Schedule Historical Forecast

Net Sales 19,129.0 22,596.0 23,610.0 28,054.3

Additions to Intangibles (1,450.0) 68.0 (21.0)

Additions to Intangibles as % of Net Sales (0.1) 0.0 (0.0)

Beginning Net Intangibles Additions to Intangibles (Amortization Expense) (Intangible Sales and write offs) Ending Net Intangibles

From:

Existing PP&E Existing Net Intangibles, net 79,026.0 Years

Useful Life 10.0 Years

SLM

Capex Useful Life 2,012.0 954.1 10.0 Years 2,013.0 1,116.3 10.0 2,014.0 1,306.1 10.0 2,015.0 1,528.1 10.0 2,016.0 1,787.9 10.0

Total Amortization Expense 5,437.0 6,321.0 8,654.0 9,543.0

FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13 FY14 FY15

Forecast

33,904.7 40,774.3 47,705.9 55,815.9 65,304.6 76,406.4

(62.0) 7,594.0 954.1 1,116.3 1,306.1 1,528.1

(0.0) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

79,026.0 72,029.8 65,092.3 58,223.4 954.1 1,116.3 1,306.1 1,528.1 7,950.3 8,053.8 8,174.9 8,316.7 - - - -

79,026.0 72,029.8 65,092.3 58,223.4 51,434.9

7,902.6 7,902.6 7,902.6 7,902.6

47.7 95.4 95.4 95.4 55.8 111.6 111.6

65.3 130.6 76.4

9,876.0 10,000.0 7,950.3 8,053.8 8,174.9 8,316.7

FY16

89,395.5

1,787.9

0.0

51,434.9 1,787.9 8,482.5 - 44,740.4

7,902.6

95.4 111.6 130.6 152.8 89.4

8,482.5

Dabur FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09

Other long term schedule Forecast

Assets

Deferred Income Taxes 13.0 14.0 240.0 235.0

Other Long Term Assets 421.0 806.0 2,037.0 3,469.0

Total Other LT Assets 434.0 820.0 2,277.0 3,704.0 (Increase)/ Decrease in Other Assets (386.0) (1,457.0) (1,427.0)

Liabilities

Deferred Income Taxes 171.0 258.0 272.0 304.0 Post retirement Pension CostOther Long Term Liabilities 808.0 1,056.0 975.0 956.0 Total Other Long Term Liabilities 979.0 1,314.0 1,247.0 1,260.0 Increase/ (Decrease) in Other Liabilities 335.0 (67.0) 13.0

Change in Other Long Term Assets and Liabilities (51.0) (1,524.0) (1,414.0)

FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E

- - 2,353.0 2,353.0 2,353.0 2,353.0 2,353.0

2,641.0 4,274.0 4,274.0 4,274.0 4,274.0 4,274.0 4,274.0

2,641.0 4,274.0 4,274.0 4,274.0 4,274.0 4,274.0 4,274.0 1,063.0 (1,633.0) - - - - -

106.0 189.0 189.0 189.0 189.0 189.0 189.0

702.0 7,031.0 7,031.0 7,031.0 7,031.0 7,031.0 7,031.0 808.0 7,220.0 7,220.0 7,220.0 7,220.0 7,220.0 7,220.0 (452.0) 6,412.0 - - - - -

611.0 4,779.0 - - - - -

Dabur FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10

Shareholder's Equity Schedule Forecast

Beginning Equity Balance Net Income Issuance/ (Repurchase) of Equity Dividends Paid Option Proceeds Effects of Exchange Rate on Cash Ending Equity Balance

Share Repurchase Assumptions program 650.0 total left Current Year EPS 3.0 3.2 3.8 4.2 5.0 Assumed Current Year EPS Multiple 19.3 23.4 7.9 13.7 11.5 Projected Share Price 57.5 75.7 30.0 57.2 57.3 Shares Repurchased - millions 0.7 0.6 1.7 0.9 0.8 Amount Repurchased ( Rs outgo) 38.8 42.9 51.0 50.0 45.0

New Shares from Exercised Options New Shares from Exercised Options - millions Average Strike Price Option Proceeds

Dividend Assumptions Total Dividends Paid 1,198.0 1,571.0 1,434.0 1,602.0 1,332.0 Net Income 2,203.6 1,208.8 2,730.2 3,388.6 4,522.4 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.5 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.3

FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E

Forecast

13,910.0 18,925.3 24,288.7 30,059.6 36,307.1 8,445.7 9,032.1 9,718.1 10,520.8 11,459.9

52.2 55.8 60.0 65.0 70.8 3,378.3 3,612.8 3,887.2 4,208.3 4,584.0 - - - - -

13,910.0 18,925.3 24,288.7 30,059.6 36,307.1 43,112.2

379.3 2.7 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.2 6.7 16.2 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 43.6 74.5 79.7 85.7 92.8 101.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 43.0 52.2 55.8 60.0 65.0 70.8

1,111.0 3,378.3 3,612.8 3,887.2 4,208.3 4,584.0 6,140.8 8,445.7 9,032.1 9,718.1 10,520.8 11,459.9 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Dabur FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09

Shares Outstanding Schedule Forecast

Beginning Balance - Basic (actual) 86.0 84.3 Shares Issued - Shares Repurchased 0.7 0.6 1.7 0.9 Ending Balance - Basic (actual) 86 84.3 83.4

Basic Weighted Average Shares 85.2 83.9 Effects of Options and Dilutive Securities - - Diluted Weighted Average Shares 85.2 83.9

FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E

Forecast

83.4 82.6 81.7 81.0 80.3 79.6

0.8 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 82.6 81.7 81.0 80.3 79.6 78.9

83.0 82.1 81.3 80.6 79.9 79.2 - - - - - - 83.0 82.1 81.3 80.6 79.9 79.2

FY16E

78.9

0.7 78.2

78.5 - 78.5

Dabur FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10

Debt Schedule Forecast

Cash Flow Available for Financing ActivitiesProceeds from/ (Repurchase of) EquityDividendsOption ProceedsEffects of Exchange Rates on Cash+ Beginning Cash Balance- Minimum Cash BalanceCash Available for Debt RepaymentLong Term Debt IssuanceLong Term Debt (Repayments)Cash Available for Revolving Credit Facility

Revolving Credit FacilityBeginning BalanceDiscretionary (Paydown)/ BorrowingsEnding Balance

Long Term DebtBeginning BalanceIssuance(Repayment/ Amortization)Ending Balance

Revolving Credit Facility Average BalanceInterest RateInterest Expense

Long Term Debt Average BalanceInterest RateInterest Expense

Total Interest Expense

Cash Balances Average BalanceInterest RateInterest Income

FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E

Forecast

7,095.2 15,172.3 14,613.9 14,814.5 15,049.3 52.2 55.8 60.0 65.0 70.8 3,378.3 3,612.8 3,887.2 4,208.3 4,584.0

6,388.7 17,892.4 28,558.9 39,100.1 49,494.7 6,000.0 6,000.0 6,000.0 6,000.0 6,000.0 4,053.4 23,396.0 33,225.5 43,641.4 53,889.2 - - - - - 323.0 310.0 300.0 234.0 123.0 3,730.4 23,086.0 32,925.5 43,407.4 53,766.2

7,023.0 10,753.4 - - - 3,730.4 (10,753.4) - - -

7,023.0 10,753.4 - - - -

7,023.0 10,907.0 10,597.0 10,297.0 10,063.0 9,940.0 - - - - - - 323.0 310.0 300.0 234.0 123.0 78.0 10,907.0 10,597.0 10,297.0 10,063.0 9,940.0 9,862.0

8,888.2 5,376.7 - - - 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%

622.2 376.4 - - -

10,752.0 10,447.0 10,180.0 10,001.5 9,901.0 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%

967.7 940.2 916.2 900.1 891.1

1,589.9 1,316.6 916.2 900.1 891.1

6,388.7 17,892.4 28,558.9 39,100.1 49,494.7 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

191.7 536.8 856.8 1,173.0 1,484.8

estimated life

Type of Assets : Estimated useful life for charging depreciation :Leasehold Land 20 yearsBuildings 10-15 yearsPlant and Machinery 6-15 yearsFurniture and Fixtures 10-15 yearsOffice Equipment 15 yearsVehicles 5 yearsDepreciation for the asset of the Group is charged on Straight Line basis