currency daily report, july 12 2013
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Content
Overview
US Dollar
Euro
GBP
JPY
Economic Indicators
Angel Broking Ltd.
Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, A
Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mu
Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261
Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document
correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an off
part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose witho ut prior permission fr
Research Team
Reena Rohit
Chief Manager
Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies
Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com
(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134
Anish Vyas
Research Analyst
anish.vyas@angelbroking.com
(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104
Overview:
Curre
ndheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093.
mbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000
79838 / Member ID: 10500
have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company doe
er to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be repr
m “Angel Broking Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on currencies@angelbroki
cies Daily Report Friday| July 12, 2013
www.angelbroking.com
s not warrant its accuracy, completeness and
oduced, distributed or published, in whole or in
ng.com
Highlights
• US Unemployment Claims increased to 360,000 for
• German WPI declined by 0.4 percent in the last mo
• US Federal Budget Balance was at a surplus of $116
Asian markets are trading higher today extending gai
trade on the back of statement from Fed regarding
stimulus measures.
US Unemployment Claims increased by 16,000 to 36
ending on 5th
July as against a rise of 344,000 in
Prices declined by 0.2 percent in June from earlier fa
May. Federal Budget Balance was at a surplus of $1
with respect to deficit of $138.7 billion a month ago.
US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined sharply around
yesterday’s trade on the back of statement fro
Chairman Ben Bernanke that central banks needs to
more favorable labor markets before tapering it
program.
Further, rise in risk sentiments in global markets also
pressure on the currency. The DX touched an intra-d
closed at 82.92 on Thursday.
Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated in the initial par
yesterday’s trading session on the back of stateme
Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke regarding continua
measures. This factor added downside pressure on
positive factor for Indian Rupee. Further, expe
measures to be taken by Reserve Bank of India (
upside in currency.
However, during the day currency depreciated on
demand from importers and oil firms which erased t
depreciation in the Rupee. The currency touched a
59.32 and closed at 59.82 on Thursday.
For the month of July 2013, FII inflows totaled a
($174.09 million) as on 11th
July 2013. Year to dat
inflows stood at Rs.73,201.20 crores ($13,674.90 m
2013.
Outlook
From the intra-day perspective, we expect the Rupe
account of upbeat global and domestic markets cou
in the DX. Further, expectations of more measures to
its meeting with importers will support an upsid
However, expectations of decline in industrial
manufacturing data from country will cap sharp gains
Curre
w/e on 5th
July.
th.
.5 billion in June.
s from yesterday’s
continuation of its
0,000 for the week
rior week. Import
ll of 0.7 percent in
16.5 billion in June
1.6 percent in the
Federal Reserve
wait and watch for
s asset purchases
exerted downside
y low of 82.60 and
of the trade in
t from US Federal
ion of its stimulus
DX and acted as a
ctations of more
RBI) supported an
account of dollar
e gains and led to
intra-day high of
Rs.1023.0 crores
basis, net capital
illion) till 11th
July
e to appreciate on
led with weakness
be taken by RBI in
in the currency.
production and
in the Rupee.
Market Highlights (% change)
Last
NIFTY 5935.1
SENSEX 19676.1
DJIA 15460.92
S&P 1675.0
FTSE 15677.3
KOSPI 1877.6
BOVESPA 58497.8
NIKKEI 14472.6
Nymex Crude
(Aug’13) - $/bbl
104.91
Comex Gold
(Aug’13) - $/oz
1280.10
Comex
Silver(Sept’13)
$/oz
19.94
LME Copper (3
month) -$/tonne
7002.50
CRB Index
(Industrial)
-
G-Sec -10 yr
@7.8% - Yield
102.09
US Dollar (% change)
Last
Dollar Index 82.92 -
US $ / INR (Spot) 59.82
US $ / INR July’13
Futures (NSE)
59.88 -
US $ / INR July’13
Futures (MCX-SX)
59.88 -
Technical Chart – USD/INR
Technical Outlook
US Dollar/INR July’13
(NSE/MCX-SX)
cies Daily Report Friday| July 12, 2013
www.angelbroking.com
as on July 11, 2013
Prev.
dayWoW MoM YoY
2.0 1.7 4.1 11.0
2.0 1.4 4.5 7.6
1.1 3.2 1.9 22.7
1.4 3.7 3.0 24.9
0.0 -0.8 -3.2 13.1
2.9 2.1 -0.6 -6.4
0.2 29.9 18.6 9.5
0.4 -0.1 9.3 63.5
-1.5 3.6 8.5 22.3
2.7 2.2 -7.1 -18.9
0.0 6.5 -9.2 -26.5
3.0 1.1 -10.8 -7.5
- - - -
0.0 4.0 3.4 2.1
Source: Reuters
as on July 11, 2013
rev.
dayWoW MoM YoY
1.6 -0.6 2.7 4.4
0.1 0.4 -3.2 -7.2
0.08 -0.98 2.24 7.67
0.13 -0.93 2.25 7.69
Source: Telequote
valid for July 12, 2013
Trend Support Resistance
Sideways 59.60/59.40 60.10/60.30
Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated around 1 percent in the yest
back of sharp fall in the DX. Further, upbeat
supported an upside in the currency.
The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3201 an
against the dollar on Thursday.
German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined by 0.
month. French Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase
June as against a rise of 0.1 percent a month ago.
Outlook
In today’s session, we expect the Euro to trade hi
upbeat global markets. Further, weakness in the DX
upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in t
capped or reversal can be seen on account of for
industrial production data from the region.
Technical Outlook valid
Trend Sup
Euro/INR July’13
(NSE/MCX-SX)Up 77.95/77
GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated more than 1.2 pe
trading session taking cues from weakness in the DX
appetite in the global markets supported an upside
Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5222
against dollar on Thursday.
Outlook
We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive
upbeat global markets. Further, weakness in the DX
factor for the Pound.
Technical Outlook valid fo
Trend Suppo
GBP/INR July ’13
(NSE/MCX-SX)Sideways 90.30/90.
Curre
Euro (% change)
Last Prev
Euro /$ (Spot) 1.3094
Euro / INR (Spot) 78.33
Euro / INR July
’13 Futures (NSE)
78.3
Euro / INR
July’13 Futures
(MCX-SX)
78.2
Technical Chart – Euro
GBP (% change)
Last Prev.
$ / GBP (Spot) 1.5183 1
GBP / INR
(Spot)
90.782 0
GBP / INR
July’13 Futures
(NSE)
90.60 1
GBP / INR July
’13 Futures
(MCX-SX)
90.58 1
Technical Chart – Sterling Pound
rday’s trade on the
lobal markets also
d closed at 1.3094
percent in the last
d by 0.2 percent in
her on the back of
will also support an
he currency will be
ecast for decline in
or July 12, 2013
ort Resistance
.70 78.40/78.60
rcent in yesterday’s
. Further, rise in risk
in the currency. The
nd closed at 1.5183
note on the back of
will act as a positive
r July 12, 2013
rt Resistance
0 90.70/90.90
cies Daily Report Friday| July 12, 2013
www.angelbroking.com
as on July 11, 2013
. day WoW MoM YoY
0.9 1.4 -2.1 7.0
-0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -13.2
1.80 -0.32 0.69 14.65
1.75 -0.36 0.62 14.63
Source: Reuters
Source: Telequote
as on July 11, 2013
ay WoW MoM YoY
.15 0.7 -3.4 -2.1
.20 0.29 -0.53 5.24
.35 -0.64 -0.44 4.77
.29 -0.66 -0.45 4.79
Source: Reuters
Source: Telequote
JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated around 0.7 percen
trading session on account of policy kept unchang
(BOJ). The Yen touched an intra-day high of 99.86
against dollar on Thursday.
Outlook
For intra-day trade, we expect the Japanese Yen to ap
from BOJ statement of keeping its policy steady.
appetite in the global markets, which could lead to f
currency and cap sharp gains in the Yen.
Technical Outlook valid
Trend Supp
JPY/INR July ’13
(NSE/MCX-SX)Sideways 60.20/6
Economic Indicators to be released on
Indicator Country
Industrial Production m/m Euro
PPI m/m US
Core PPI m/m US
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment US
FOMC Member Bullard Speaks US
Curre
JPY (% change)
Last P
JPY / $ (Spot) 98.94
JPY / INR (Spot) 0.6052
JPY 100 / INR
July’13 Futures
(NSE)
60.34
JPY 100 / INR
July’13 Futures
(MCX-SX)
60.34
Technical Chart – JPY
in the yesterday’s
d by Bank of Japan
and closed at 98.94
preciate, taking cues
owever, rise in risk
ll in demand for the
or July 12, 2013
ort Resistance
0.0 60.55/60.70
uly 12, 2013
Time (IST) Actual Forecast
2:30pm - -0.2%
6:00pm - 0.5%
6:00pm - 0.2%
7:25pm - 85.3
10:30pm - -
cies Daily Report Friday| July 12, 2013
www.angelbroking.com
as on July 11, 2013
rev day WoW MoM YoY
-0.7 -1.1 3.8 24.1
0.07 0.80 -0.21 -13.39
0.66 -0.41 0.04 -13.93
0.72 -0.40 0.06 -13.92
Source: Reuters
Source: Telequote
Previous Impact
0.4% Medium
0.5% High
0.1% Medium
84.1 High
- Medium
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