ctotf special workshop: integrating renewables into the generation mix: challenges and unknowns...
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CTOTF Special Workshop: Integrating Renewables into the Generation Mix: Challenges and Unknowns
Jason MakansiPresident, Pearl Street IncExecutive Director, CAREBS
314.495.4545www.pearlstreetinc.com
Integrating Renewables and Conventional Generation
Today’s Landscape
• 60-90% of all generation interconnection requests in six ISO/RTOs are renewable energy
• “Environmental gauntlet” forcing smaller coal plants into retirement, new plants cancelled or postponed
• States RPS in place, Federal RPS lurking• Renewable energy more bipartisan than most
energy issues, especially when positioned as clean or non-carbon energy (including nukes)
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Today’s Landscape
• Renewable energy more bipartisan than most energy issues, especially when positioned as clean or non-carbon energy (including nukes)
• Wind energy can drive prices into negative territory within a balancing authority
• Wind capacity factors average 30%, blows least when needed the most
• Fossil units undergoing deeper, more frequent cycling to fill in around wind. Costs not typically visible, but significant. Overall emissions profiles exacerbated.P
earl
Str
eet
Environmental GauntletOzone
PM2.5
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
Beginning CAIR Phase I Seasonal NOx Cap
HAPs MACT
proposed rule
Beginning CAIR Phase II Seasonal NOx Cap
Revised Ozone NAAQS
Begin CAIR
Phase I Annual
SO2 Cap
-- adapted from Wegman (EPA 2003) Updated 2.15.10
Beginning CAIR Phase II Annual SO2 &
NOx Caps
Next PM-2.5 NAAQS Revisio
n
Next Ozone NAAQS Revision
SO2 Primary NAAQS
SO2/NO2 Secondary
NAAQS
NO2
Primary NAAQS
SO2/NO2
New PM-2.5 NAAQS
DesignationsCAMR & Delisting Rule vacated
Hg/HAPS
Final EPA Nonattainment Designations
PM-2.5SIPs due (‘06)
Proposed CAIR
Replacement Rule
Expected
HAPS MACT final
rule expected
CAIR Vacated
HAPS MACT Compliance 3 yrs after final
rule
CAIR Remanded
CAIR
Begin CAIR
Phase I Annual NOx Cap
PM-2.5 SIPs due (‘97)
316(b) proposedrule expected
316(b) final ruleexpected
316(b) Compliance3-4 yrs after final rule
Effluent Guidelines
proposed ruleexpected
Water
Effluent GuidelinesFinal rule expected Effluent Guidelines
Compliance 3-5 yrs after final rule
Begin Compliance
Requirements under Final CCB
Rule (ground water
monitoring, double monitors, closure, dry ash
conversion)
Ash
Proposed Rule for CCBs
Management
Final Rule for
CCBs Mgmt
Final CAIR Replacement
Rule Expected
Compliance with CAIR
Replacement Rule
CO2
CO2 Regulation
Reconsidered Ozone NAAQS
Integration Options
• Enhanced wind monitoring, forecasting, and communications with grid operators combined with demand side management– The “Smart Grid Option”
• Cycling, dispatching existing gas-fired assets and adding to the fleet- the “gas + wind” option
• Build a new layer of bulk and distributed energy storage infrastructure – the storage option
• Run old fossil units into the ground – the “these assets are already paid for anyway” option
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We’ve been here before!
• Baseload nuclear build out of the 1960s-1980s. No cycling allowed
• Pumped storage hydroelectric (PSH) built so nukes could continue baseload operation
• 24,000 MW of PHS facilities operate today• Bulk natural gas storage emerged with the creation
of the dereg, wholesale gas marketRenewables are opposite problem of nukes – unpredictable cycling and on-off within minutes
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Intermittent, Unpredictable Wind
• In ERCOT, less than 10% of total wind capacity counted as being “available” during peak summer days
• Wind credited with 13% of its capacity value in PJM during peak periods
• MISO operators curtail thousands of MWs of wind daily; 1800 MW swings over hourly period common
Wind resources shift suddenly and dramatically
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Cycling Old, Small Fossil Units
• Stomp on the accelerator of your car enough times when cold and see what happens
• Cycling costs, not transparent, are nevertheless known to be significant
• Studies have shown that emissions from cycling fossil plants in Colorado and Texas may actually create a higher emissions burden because of wind fill-in
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Gas + Wind Option
• A favorite one with this crowd, certainly!• Gas turbine plants lose efficiency at part load.• Metallurgical degradation similar to coal units• Emissions profile much better than coal but an
emissions-free MWh from wind still being traded for an emissions-laden MWh from fossil
Emerging fast response turbine technology may alleviate some of these problems
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Integrating Renewables: Killer App for Bulk Energy Storage
• Bulk storage options PHS and Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) are fully proven systems, cost effective, and available with full commercial warranties
• Bulk storage most expediently enables renewable energy integration with no additional reliability and technology risk to the grid and offers enhanced grid operations in other ways
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Storage Goes Both Ways
• Unlike other options for renewable energy integration, bulk storage systems function both as load and generation, – ideal for ancillary services.
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Other PHS, CAES Characteristics
• Both types of systems can move from idle position to full load in less than ten minutes, sometimes in as little as three minutes
• CAES and PHS comfortably charge or discharge for two, six, even twelve hour periods if necessary
• PHS has no emissions profile; CAES requires a minimum nat. gas input (in commercial versions) but emissions benefit compared to fossil units is considerable
• Both can act as a transmission resource, optimize transmission line loadings
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CAES vs GTs and CCs
• Advanced commercially available CAES plant suffers only 7% deterioration in cycle efficiency between 25-100% output. CC can suffer 30% or more, GT even higher
• CCs require at least 40 minutes to come up to full load from warm condition, and several hours from a cold condition
• Simple cycle GTs are more flexible but limited by decremental reserves provided to grid operator
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Bulk Storage Project Activity
• Up to forty new PHS facilities either have obtained a preliminary permit or have applied for one
• Between a dozen and two dozen CAES facilities are known to be under development
• CAES facility in Alabama operating for almost 20 years
• Numerous PHS facilities operating around the country for one to three decades
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Putting Policies in Place• Technology-neutral investment tax credit (ITC) is
being considered by Congress• California has a bill awaiting the Governator’s
signature that could support storage procurement• New York has instituted its “Limited Energy Storage
Resource” (LESR) Policy• PJM, MISO, ERCOT have grid policies that allow
storage to provide ancillary services under market-based pricing. MISO considering a “ramping” product
• Several bulk storage projects were selected for funding through the ARRA Stimulus program
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CAREBS – Storage Policy Voice
• The Coalition to Advance Renewable Energy through Bulk Storage (CAREBS) is dedicated to: – developing policy frameworks that support bulk
storage– promoting the core message that a network of
strategically located bulk storage facilities will bring more renewable energy to more people more of the time
– optimizing grid operations through bulk storage use
WWW.CAREBS.ORG
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Thank you!
Jason Makansi - 314-495-4545jmakansi@pearlstreetinc.com
President, Pearl Street Inc www.pearlstreetinc.com
Principal, Pearl Street Liquidity Advisors LLC www.psliquidityadvisors.com
Executive Director, Coalition to Advance Renewable Energy through Bulk Storage
www.carebs.org
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