cscibox: an intelligent assistant for dang ice and sediment cores …lizb/cscience/agu2015.pdf ·...

AI-geoscien+stinterac+on•  Thescien+stiskept“intheloop”ateachdecision

point,andcanguidetheprocessassheseesfit.Ateachstep,shecancomparetheresultstoherintui+onortootheragemodels.

•  Hobbesexploresalterna+ves,performscomputa+ons,andtracksuncertainty.Itexploresthespaceofpossiblemodelsthoroughlyandquickly,andalwaysexplainsitsreasoningtothescien+st,includingstepsthatareconflic+ng,uncertain,orotherwiseproblema+c.

Hobbes’sKnowledgeBaseHobbesisaimingtoencodethevastknowledgegeoscien+stshavebuiltupthroughyearsofexperienceda+ngcores.Hobbes’scollec+onofrulesspringsoutoflong,detaileddiscussionsbetweentheAIscien+stsandthegeoscien+stsontheteam.Theseconversa+onsfocuson1.  Themethodsofreasoninggeoscien+stsusetocreate&

evaluateagemodels2.  Specificrulesofinferencegeoscien+stsuseinpar+cular

situa+onswhilecrea+nganagemodelExamplesofrulesobtainedfromtheseconversa+onsinclude:

•  Themoremeasurementswehaveofacore,themorecertainwe’llbeabouttheresul+ngagemodel.

•  Stra+Counterworkswellforlayercoun+ngifneighboringlayershaveroughlythesamethickness.

•  Ifasedimentlayercontainsfossilsofterrestriallife,itmusthavebeendepositedonland.

•  Ifthesedimenta+onratechangesabruptly,theagemodelisprobablywrong.

TheAIscien+ststhenencodeeachruleofinferenceintoanalgorithmHobbescanunderstand.

EvidenceFORsnowmeltTemperaturefrequentlyabovefreezing(strongerevidence)

EvidenceAGAINSTsnowmeltAveragetemperaturebelowfreezing(weakerevidence)

Example:Da+ngNEEM-S1icecoreStep1:UseStra:Counter[Winstrup15]forautomatedlayercoun:ng

Hobbes:Ineedaparameter\mu,fortheaveragelayerthickness.Iguessed\mu=7cm,basedonasimilarcore.Dotheselayerboundarieslookcorrect?

Geocien+st:No,therearetoomanylayerboundaries.Use\mu=13cm.Hobbes:Okay,using\mu=13cm.Dotheselayerboundarieslookcorrectnow?

Geocien+st:Yes,con+nuelayercoun+ng.

Step2:AlignthegasrecordandtheicerecordHobbes:Weneedafirndensifica+onmodeltoes+mateagedifferencebetweengasbubblesandsurroundingice.ThestandardmodelisbyHerron&Langway,butitassumestherewasnosnowmelt.Iwillevaluatewhetherthismodelisappropriate.

ArgumentFORsnowmelt(onlymoderatelycertain)

Hobbes:Judgingbythecurrenttemperaturevaluesattheloca+onoftheNEEM-S1core(average-3.34Candstandarddevia+on22.97),theHerron&Langwaymodelmaynotbeappropriateforthiscore.ShouldIusethe<nameothermodelhere>instead?

Step3:Stoplayercoun:ngaDerannualsignalsfadeHobbes:Weareatdepth3525m.IwillcheckwhethertheannualsignalshavefadedtoseeifIshouldkeeplayercoun+ng.

Argument:numberofpeaksperseriesisnormalpartlyapplicablesound

Argument:averagelayerthicknessisnormalmostlyapplicableplausible

Conclusion:con+nuelayercoun+ngmostlyapplicablesound

Hobbes:Wecancon+nuelayercoun+ngajerdepth3525m.

Finaloutput:Reasoningbehindagemodels:•  Performedautomatedlayercoun+ng

betweendepth50mand4020m<thesearemadeup!>

•  UsedDansgaard-Johnsenflowmodelforda+ngdepthsbelow4020mIdon’tseethatabove.Ithinkyou’remissinga4thstep

•  Usedtwodifferentfirndensifica+onmodels:Herron&Langway(orangecurve)and?(bluecurve)

•  Whataboutthegasrecordalignment?•  Etc(moredetailswouldbeincludedinthe

fullreport)

ReproducibilityReproducibilityisakeycomponentofthescien+ficmethod.Ascomputa:onbecomesmorecentraltothescien+ficenterprise,itisurgenttoaddressconcernsregardingreproducibilityofcomputa:onalresults.CSciBoxaddressesreproducibilityconcernsby:•  Tracksallac+onstakenwiththecore,forcomplete

reproducibility•  Includescita+onnotesevery+meyouuseanother

scien+st’stool•  Metadataisalwaysbundledwiththecoredata•  WeuseLinkedPaleoclimateDateformat•  Itiseasy(andmandatory)inCSciBoxtosaveallthe

dataandmetadatathatproducedanagemodel(ifyouwanttosavetheagemodel).Bymetadata,wemeanspecificparameterchoicesandsuch-everythingthat’srequiredtoreplicatethecomputa+onexactly.

•  Itisalsoeasy(butop+onal)tosaveinforma+onabouttheothermodelsthatthescien:stconsideredbutrejected.<Somethingaboutwhythisisimportantforsciencetoo>

•  Hobbes’sknowledgebaseencodesthereasoningbehindgeoscienceresearch.Thisreasoningmaynotalwaysbereportedintradi+onalscien+ficjournaling(?)Theprocessof“algorithmizing”therulesofinferenceforcesscien+ststocodifyandreportalloftheirreasoning.That’scool!

•  CSciBoxspecificallyaddressesmanyoftherecommenda+onsoftheYaleLawSchoolRoundtableonDataandCodeSharing(cite).

Argumenta+vereasoningHobbesconsidersargumentsforandagainsteachtheory,andweighstheirstrength.•  Thismimicsthewayscien:ststhink,andthewaythey

communicateaboutitwithothers—andthusstreamlinescommunica+onbetweenHobbesanditsusers

•  Italsoallowsthescien+sttoconsidermul:pleagemodelsatonce,andenablesHobbestohandleconflic+ngarguments.

•  Atthispointintheprocess,forinstance,thescien+stcanchooseoneortheotherofthesuggestedfirnmodels—ormaychoosetodirectHobbestoexploreboth.

•  Thisistheplacetoputthatmaterialaboutscien+ficdisagreementandconflic+ngrules

Twocomponentsofconfidenceinthereasoning•  Confidenceinthescien:ficknowledge(validity):Isthisruleofinference

valid?Validityrangesfromauniversallyacceptedrule(accepted),toagut-levelfeeling(plausible).

Accepted>Sound>Probable>PlausibleAvaliditylevelisaqachedtoeachrule,andisdeterminedbytheexpertgeoscien:stsontheteam.Thediscretelevelsofvaliditycorrespondtotheweightsscien+stsgivetotheirreasoning,andareeasiertoobtainfromexpertsthancon+nuousvalueswouldbe.

•  Confidenceintheevidence(applicability):Howwelldoesoursitua+onmatchtheruleofinference,asshownbyourdataset?

Highlyapplicable>mostlyapplicable>partlyapplicableHobbesdeterminestheapplicabilityofapieceofevidence,byanalyzingthedata.•  Whenweighingtheevidencefororagainstatheory,Hobbesisdesignedto

intelligentlyconsiderthevalidityandapplicabilityofeachargument..Hobbescombinestheindividualargumentsintoasingleconclusion,describinghislevelofbeliefinthetheory.

I’mstrugglingabitwithwri+ngaboutthetwocomponentsofconfidence.Theconceptisrathersubtle,andhardtoexplainwellinashortblurbonaposter.I’dliketotalkaboutit,butIdon’twanttomen+onitandnotexplainitwell.S+llworkingonthat…Alsonotethatthearrowshouldpointtothesec+on“stoplayercoun+ngajerannualsignalsfade”,butIcan’teasilymakepowerpointdothatrightnow.

Hobbes:Okay[saves\mu=13cminthemetadataandproceeds]

PP11A-2203

Kathleen.finlinson@colorado.edu!

Elizabeth Bradley1, Kathleen Finlinson2, Tyler Jones3, Colin Lindsey3, Brett Israelsen1

Kenneth A. Anderson1, Thomas M. Marchitto3, Laura Rassbach de Vesine1, and James W. C. White3, 1 Department of Computer Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA

2 Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA 3 Institute for Alpine and Arctic Research (INSTAAR), University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA

CSciBox:Anintelligentassistantforda+ngiceandsedimentcores

Themainidea:

CSciBox!

Geoscience

Computerscience

Image&courtesy&of&Dorthe&Dahl2Jensen,&via&Jim&White&Photo:DortheDahl-Jensen

Geoscien+st:•  Hascore•  Wantsagemodel•  Bringsscien+ficexper+se

CSciBox

Output:•  Oneormoreproposedagemodelsforthecore•  Sophis+cateduncertaintyes+mates•  Summaryofthereasoningbehindeachmodel

Hobbes

CSciBox:•  Helpsapplyscien+ficreasoningandalgorithms•  Exploresalterna+vesautoma+cally•  Keepstrackofallthereasoninginvolvedinthemodel

crea+on•  Needtoexplaintherela+onshipbetweenHobbes

andCSciBox

Thisisold;willneeda

newscreenshot

ThismaterialisbaseduponworksponsoredbytheNa+onalScienceFounda+on.Anyopinions,findings,andconclusionsorrecommenda+onsexpressedinthismaterialarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheNSF.

www.cs.colorado.edu/~lizb/cscience.html!

• Sourcecode(python)availableongithub:github.com/ldevesine/cscience• Butyoudon’thavetoknowpythontorunit;wealsohaveone-clickinstallerstheretoo• GNUpubliclicense;freetomodify/extend/useasyouseefit

Wearetryingtobuild—andsupport—ausercommunity.Pleasejoinus!

CSciBoxisopensource

Intheworks:• Saywhatthefutureworklandscapelookslike• Herearesomesugges+ons:

• MakingStra+Counter&Baconbothwork• HelpingHobbesmakesmartdecisionsaboutwhentorunexpensivecomputa+ons• AddingextensivelytoHobbes’rulebase

Winstrup15cita+on