crime risk factors & a combating model policing operations & arrests perceptions of...

• Crime risk factors & a combating model

• Policing operations & arrests

• Perceptions of credibility (police crime stats)

• Some business indicators of crime trends

• SA’s crime profile:

o Overall national trends

o Curious provincial trends

• Worrying new trend (kidnapping)

• Concluding remarks

Presentation Outline

Relationships & motives relating to Relationships & motives relating to murdermurder

Perpetrators known to victims

Perpetrators as relatives, friends, etc

Relatives as perpetrators

80% 60% 20%

Relationships

Motives/ConditionsSocial behaviour(E.g. domestic conflict such as arguments, jealousy, alcohol & drug abuse, etc)

Criminalbehaviour (E.g. resulting from other crime such as robbery, etc)

Group behaviour(E.g. gang & taxi violence, vigilantism, etc)

Other(E.g. retaliation, self-defence, police actions, etc)

65% 16% 7% 12%

Att murder - 60% Rape - 75% Assault - 90%

Socio-economic conditions

Socio-economic conditions Attitudes to

crime/violence

Attitudes to crime/violence Facilitating

factors

Facilitating factors

Weak regulatory systems

Weak regulatory systems

High levels of crime & violence

High levels of crime & violence

++ ++ ++ ==

Factors contributing to crime & violenceFactors contributing to crime & violence

•Urbanisation & poor infra-structure

•Poor housing

•Poverty and unemploym.

•Dysfunctional families, schools, etc

•Low levels of education

•Absence of after school & childcare, recreational facilities, etc

•Urbanisation & poor infra-structure

•Poor housing

•Poverty and unemploym.

•Dysfunctional families, schools, etc

•Low levels of education

•Absence of after school & childcare, recreational facilities, etc

•Early experiences of violence

•Culture of violence

•Ready rationali-sation of crimi-nality

•Poor socialisation

•Poor anger-and conflict

management•Status of women

& children

•Early experiences of violence

•Culture of violence

•Ready rationali-sation of crimi-nality

•Poor socialisation

•Poor anger-and conflict

management•Status of women

& children

•Alcohol

•Drugs

•Gangs

•Firearms

•Poor urban design

•Lack of safe public trans-port

•Xenophobia

•Alcohol

•Drugs

•Gangs

•Firearms

•Poor urban design

•Lack of safe public trans-port

•Xenophobia

• Weaknesses in CJS (training, resources, corruption, etc.)

• Poor law enforcement (incl. by-laws)

• Weaknesses in licensing systems

• Weaknesses in transport regu-lation (e.g. taxi’s)

•Weaknesses in school system

• Weaknesses in CJS (training, resources, corruption, etc.)

• Poor law enforcement (incl. by-laws)

• Weaknesses in licensing systems

• Weaknesses in transport regu-lation (e.g. taxi’s)

•Weaknesses in school system

Combating (fighting) crimeCombating (fighting) crime

PolicingShort-term interventions

PolicingShort-term interventions

Private securityPrivate security

Crime preventionLong-term interventions

Crime preventionLong-term interventions

Proactive Policing

• Visible policing• Law enforce- ment• Order main- tenance

Proactive Policing

• Visible policing• Law enforce- ment• Order main- tenance

Reactive Policing

• Crime investi- gation• Law enforce- ment• Order restora- tion

Reactive Policing

• Crime investi- gation• Law enforce- ment• Order restora- tion

ArrestsDeterrence

• Socio-economic interventions (social crime prevention)

• Crime prevention through environ- mental design

• Deterrence through effective Criminal Justice System

• Socio-economic interventions (social crime prevention)

• Crime prevention through environ- mental design

• Deterrence through effective Criminal Justice System

Other interv.(other depts & com. initia-tives)

Other interv.(other depts & com. initia-tives)

Actions 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 % inc

Roadblocks 35 003 42 601 52 233 65 381 25%

Cordon & search 23 590 20 490 38 129 61 216 60%

Stop & search 842 580 1 006 186 1 542 031 2 063 923 33%

Vehicle patrols 1 065 196 1 354 304 1 775 170 3 851 034 117%

Persons searched 9 794 533 11 667 505 15 232 422 19 754 241 29%

Vehicles searched 3 542 802 4 121 994 2 666 181 7 712 536 189%

Arrests 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 %

Contact crimes 173 838 217 047 242 902 283 002 16%

Aggravated robbery 24 952 22 051 20 934 25 077 20%

Property & other serious crime

- 176 346 210 548 208 041 - 1%

Crimes dep. on police action 90 891 102 906 130 257 149 138 14%

Policing operations & arrests

Crime type Detection rate (%)

% cases court ready

Conviction rate (%)

Contact crimes (crimes against the person)

56,99% 32,24% (new baseline)

23,78%

Property-related crimes 15,84% 31,06% (new baseline)

24,50%

Crimes dependent on police action 98,53% 28,41% (new baseline)

37,13%

Murder 26,57% 28,95% (new baseline)

13,55%

Aggravated robbery 14,77% 34,82% (new baseline)

11,40%

House robbery 18,99% - 3,59%

Business robbery 18,83% - 12,69%

Detection & conviction rates (selected crimes)

Credibility of police crime statistics ?

Retail Crimes (Armed Robberies & Burglaries): 2009 & 2010

2009 2010 % decrease

Armed Robberies(Incidents)

282 159 - 43,6%

Burglaries(Incidents)

426 311 - 27%

Armed Robberies(Financial loss)

R19,36m R10,03m - 48%

Burglary(Financial loss)

R19,97m R10,07 - 49%

Consumer Goods Risk Initiative (CGRI)

House robbery Business robbery

Vehicle hijacking

--------------------------------------

Vehicle theft

Business burglary

House burglary

4 – 21% (average decr)

19 – 28% (average decr)

19 – 31% (average decr)

--------------------------------------

8 – 17% (average decr)

5 – 9% (average decr)

4 – 12% (average decr)

South African Insurance Association (SAIA)(Claims for 2010/11 compared to 2010/09)

SAPS: 20 most serious crimes recorded1994/95 – 2010/11

Average national & provincial crime ratios

Overall crime ratios (29 crimes) Crimes detected by police action (3 crimes)

• Illegal possession of firearms• Drug related crimes• Driving under the influence

National & provincial ratios: murder2003/04 – 2010/11

National & provincial ratios: attempted murder 2003/04 – 2010/11

26%

Trio crimes (National trends)Actual figures

House robbery Business robbery

National and provincial trends (Actual figures)

National & Prov crimes: Kidnapping‘The unlawful intentional deprivation of a person of his freedom of movement or, if such a person is a child, the unlawful intentional deprivation of a parent of control over the child’ (Cf ‘abduction’)

Concluding remarks

• Reductions in most crime levels in Gauteng and increases in most crime levels in the Western Cape cannot be explained only on the basis of what the police do or don’t do

• The police’s contribution to crime prevention and crime reduction is dependent on how well they perform their policing role

• The Western Cape in particular is experiencing crimes resulting from conditions over which the police have very little control

• We still know too little about the risk factors and driving forces behind crime in South Africa to fully understand how to fight it

• Much more in-depth and targeted research is required as a basis for an integrated and multi-agency approach that would guide not just the police, but everyone else

THANK YOU / DANKIEJOHAN BURGERTel 012 346 9500

jburger@issafrica.orgwww.issafrica.org