creating resilient, robust, & antifragile organizations

Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.Email: dja@leankanban.com Twitter: @lki_dja

Creating Robust, Resilient & Antifragile OrganizationsWhat does it take to be…

…“built to last”?

Presenter:David J. Anderson

Lean Kanban BeneluxHeeze, NL

November 2016

Built to Last - 1994

3M – the Minnesota Mutation Machine

An Example of a Resilient, Robust &

Antifragile organization

Emotional Motivation for Change

Nobody wants to lead the next Nokia!

From $56 to $2!

Motivation for adoption? Kanban has agendas

What are they afraid of?

Taleb’s Model for Organizations

A new way to look at organizations

Fragile

Resilient

Robust

Antifragile

Fragile

Fragile lead time distribution

Weibull, k=0.8

More Robust Lead Time

Examples of Lead Time Distributions

Kanban mitigates risk of fragility

Examples of fragile entities

the Greenland Norse were fragile

Monopoly skischool franchises didn’t survive deregulation in the 1990s

Squeezes

Volatility & Turbulence

Risk is manageable in conditions of stable volatility, i.e. where there is no/very little turbulence. Turbulence implies unmanageable risk Ergo, turbulent systems are fragile systems

Deadlines create squeezes

Dealing with squeezes

A better way to deal with squeezes

Resilient

Resilient organizations avoid catastrophic failure

Impact function matter more than likelihood

Resilient organizations avoid catastrophic failure

Blocker Clustering helps with resilience

http://www.klausleopold.com/2013/09/blocker-clusters-problems-are-not.html

Resilient organizations use classes of service

Resilient organizations use experiments

Resilience requires a reason to pick yourself up and try again

Purpose or values weigh more strongly than identity with resilient organizations

Feedback loops for tactical concerns

Robust

Robust organizations…

Feedback loops for operational concerns

Entropy

Entropy in a housing neighborhood

Diversity of housing makes a robust neighborhood

Without restriction entropy will continue

Left unchecked a new monoculture develops

Eventually maximum entropy occurs

Robustness is fragile – a philosophical dilemma

Singapore is Robust

Antifragile

3M – Minnesota Mutation Machine*

* Collins & Porras, Built to Last

IBM has a long history of identity change

John Menzies founded in 1833 as a newsagent in Edinburgh. Identity change in 1998 to distribution &

airport baggage handler

Microsoft is robust rather than antifragile

Cooperative effort to strengthen the tribePersonal SacrificeSymbols are more importantCommon enemyRituals practiced

“Be Paranoid”

Microsoft is robust rather than antifragile

Identities that are looser, wider, broader umbrellas are robust and enable antifragility

Virgin are robust and may be antifragile so long as they survive the transition from Sir Richard

Branson as their leader

What is Virgin Group’s Identity ?

Virgin’s brand

Feedback loops for strategy

The Organizational Dilemma

Organizational Dilemma

Kanban & Resilience, Robustness & Antifragility

Capability

OptionalityAdaptability

Agility

Survivability

Out-maneuvered

Unfit for purpose

Kanban enables Antifragility

Antifragility

The Kanban Method

General Practices

1. Visualize (with a kanban board 看板 )

2. Limit work-in-progress (with kanban かんばん )

3. Manage flow4. Make policies explicit5. Implement feedback loops6. Improve collaboratively, evolve experimentally

(using models & the scientific method)

StrategyReview

RiskReview

Monthly

ServiceDeliveryReview

Bi-WeeklyQuarterly

KanbanMeeting

OperationsReview

Monthly

Replenishment &Commitment

Meeting

Weekly

DeliveryPlanningMeeting

Per delivery cadence

change change

change

change change

change

infoinfo

change info

Kanban Cadences

ChangeRequest

Prod.Defects

Maintenance

UsabilityImproveme

Kanban helps with “einheit” (unity & alignment)

Engin-eeringReady

Ongoing

Analysis Testing

Done VerificationAcceptance3 3Ongoing

DevelopmentDone3

Steven

Rhonda

Kanban enables resilience, robustness & antifragility

Thank you!

David Anderson is an innovator in management of 21st Century businesses that employ creative people who “think for a living” . He leads a training, consulting, publishing and event planning business dedicated to developing, promoting and implementing new management thinking & methods…He has 30+ years experience in the high technology industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software organizations delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative methods at large companies such as Sprint and Motorola.David defined Enterprise Services Planning and originated Kanban Method an adaptive approach to improved service delivery. His latest book, published in June 2012, is, Lessons in Agile Management – On the Road to Kanban.David is Chairman & CEO of Lean Kanban Inc., a business operating globally, dedicated to providing quality training & events to bring Kanban and Enterprise Services Planning to businesses who employ those who must “think for a living.”

This presentation was inspired by the work of Nassim Taleb on Fragility, Resilience, Robustness & Antifragility in Risk Management and by his 5-day Real World Risk class in New York City, February 2016. None of the content of this talk is taken directly from Taleb nor is it meant to represent (or misrepresent) his work in shape or fashion.

Cover images courtesy of John Menzies PLC, the Scotsman newspaper and the BBC.

Lead time distribution courtesy Andreas Bartel

Volatility & Turbulence data courtesy of Digite, Raymond Keating / CME Group, Andreas Bartel

Acknowledgements

Appendices

2010 – Kanban “blue book”

2012 Lessons in Agile Management

The heavily under-rated book that underpins the Kanban Coaching Masterclass and most of the theory behind the Kanban Method

2014 Kanban from the Inside

creating resilient, robust, & antifragile organizations

Leadership & Management

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