covid-19 and social protection of the poor and most vulnerable

COVID-19andsocialprotectionofthepoorandmostvulnerable

NoraLustig(CEQI,TulaneUniversity)

MarianoTommasi(CEDH,UniversityofSanAndrés)

MeetingoftheUNDP,CEQI,CGEPGroupSocialProtectioninResponsetotheCOVID-19Pandemic

April24,2020

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KEYMESSAGES

1.  TheCOVID-19pandemicishittingpoorandvulnerablepopulationsthehardestq  Healthrisksq  Livingconditions

2.  Notonlyaffectingthemonetarypoorq  Alsomanyotherdeprivations

3.  Actionstomitigatetheimpactarecrucialü  Ethicalreasonsü  Toavoidirreversibleeffectsonhumancapital

ü  Externalities§  RaghuramRajan:“Inorderforanywhereintheworldtobesafe,thevirushastobedefeatedeverywhere”

4.  Effectiveresponseswillrequire:Ø  Resources(BUDGETARYPRIORITY)Ø  Vigorous,focusedandwell-implementedactions(POLITICALANDINSTITUTIONALPRIORITY)–

Notjustfinancialtransfers

5.  Althoughgovernmentsmustplayacentralrole….Ø  Collaborationoflocalgrassrootsorganizations(NGOs,etc.)isalsocrucial

𝑌 

𝑃↓0  𝑃↓1  Rich Poor

Poor as a result of COVID-19

I I’

Income

Poverty line

Structural poverty

Figure1

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MonetaryPoverty

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(Inmillionsofpeopleandaspercentages)

Year 2018 2019 2020*Population 607.7 613.5 619.2Poverty Latin America (18 countries) 180.6 186.0 214.7 Rate 29.7% 30.3% 34.7%Extreme poverty Latin America (18 countries) 62.5 67.5 83.4 Rate 10.3% 11.0% 13.5%

* These are preliminary estimates and do not take into account the diversified impact between Source: United Nations Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)

the productive sectors and the rates of employment generated in each sector.

Table 7 |Latin America: Poverty and extreme poverty within a scenario of a 5.3% drop in GDP and a 3.4% increase in unemployment during 2020

Close to30million

peoplenewlyliving inpoverty

Closeto16millionpeoplenewlylivinginextremepoverty

Thissocioeconomicgroup

•  Inadditiontolackingincome,experiencemultipledeprivations:

•  Liveinslums,indigenouscommunities,orareundocumentedmigrants

•  Othersexperienceadditionaldeprivations:children,theelderly,women,thedisabled,LGBT,theimprisoned

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THECOVID-19SHOCKINTERACTSWITHALLTHESEPREEXISITINGDEPRIVATIONS

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GlobalEconomicShocks

EpidemiologicalDynamics

SocialDistancingMeasures

CO

VID-19

InformalLabor

Noassets

NoSocialSecurity

Overcrowding

Noaccesstointernet

Healthproblems

Unbanked

DysfunctionalFamilyDynamics

Domesticviolence15%Childabuse

Nosafedrinkingwaterorsanitation

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82%Q1

82%Q1

20%urbanslums

22%,59%

34%w/ointernet

142,000,000¼healthrisk

57%Q1-2

Thepoorandvulnerable•  Facedifficultiesincomplyingwithquarantine

•  Compliancehasitsownrisks–  Illness–  Violence– Malnutrition

•  Sufferdireconsequences–  Intheshortterm–  Inthelongterm

•  Permanenteffectsoftemporaryshocks•  (Thatiswhatbeingpoorisallabout)

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COVID-19perse

1.  Compliancewithsocialdistancingmeasures:Ø Morelaxamongmorevulnerablepopulations

2.  Infectionandfatality:Ø Disproportionatelyhighamongthepoorandvulnerable

o Minoritiesandthepoorareoverrepresented(USA)o Epicentersofcontagionarecorrelatedwithslums(Mumbai)

3.  Epidemiologicalexternalities

Externalities:It’smorecostlytoignoresociallyexcludedpopulations

•  Inhabitantsofslums,migrants,thehomeless,LGBT–  greaterriskofcontagionduetopreexistinghealthconditions–  obstaclestoimplementingpreventivemeasures(handwashing)–  limitationstocomplyingwithsocialdistancing(overcrowding)–  lessaccesstohealthcareservices(includingfearofdeportation)Ø Theybecomenewsourcesofcontagion.

•  Example:Singapore–  Poster-childincontainingthespreadofthevirus–  Resurgenceofvirusduetolackofattentiontomigrantpopulation

Ø  “AsharpincreaseinCovid-19casesamongthecountry’smigrantworkerpopulationhasnowforcedthegovernmenttotakedrasticmeasures.OnThursday,Singaporesawitshighestnumberofnewcasesthusfar:728,thevastmajorityofwhichwereamongmigrantworkers.”(WP,Apr16)

RECOMMENDATIONS

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Articulatestrategies:ü  Epidemiologicalstrat.ü  Economicstrategiesü  Socialstrategies

COVID-19Exposesandexacerbatesq  Disparities/Inequalitiesq  Vulnerabilities

•  Epidemiologicalandeconomicexternalities•  Humanitarianrisks•  Politicalrisks

Ø  PRIORITIZEprotectionofmostvulnerablegroupsOBJECTIVES:Preserveq  Livesq  Livelihoodsq  Humancapital

HOW:SpecialfocusØ  $(access$,implement)Ø  Directactions(beyond$)Ø  Focusinordertomake

universalo  Complempaccesoy

utilizaciónTakeintoaccountintra-groupheterogeneities

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1

4

5

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Implications•  Budgetary•  Organizational

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Requiresactionsthatareü  Urgent&vigorousintheshortterm

(weeks)o  Sustainessentialflows/supplyo  Anteinamovibles,quirúrgicas

ü  Strategicinvestments(months)

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ACTIONSBYLOCALGRASSROOTS

ORGANIZATIONS

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Non-GovernmentalActors

ü  Localsynergiesü  Iniciativastop

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RECOMMENDATIONS:I.Organizingprinciples

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RECOMMENDATIONS:II.Institutions,ActorsandActions

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RECOMMENDATIONS:II.Institutions,ActorsandActions

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RECOMMENDATIONS:II.Institutions,ActorsandActions

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Addmoneytothisandtakeawayfromotherthings

RECOMMENDATIONS:II.Institutions,ActorsandActions

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Entitychargedwithaddressingthemulti-dimensionalneedsthat

thesepopulationssimultaneouslyface

RECOMMENDATIONS:II.Institutions,ActorsandActions

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Entitychargedwithaddressingthemulti-dimensionalneedsthat

thesepopulationssimultaneouslyface

SINGAPOREFAILEDTODOTHIS

RECOMMENDATIONS:II.Institutions,ActorsandActions

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ü Crucialnon-monetaryinterventionsü Protecting

o  humancapitalo  livelihoodso  livesofthemostvulnerable,

ü thelastmile→localgrassrootsactorsü thosewhoknowwhat’shappeningineverycase

RECOMMENDATIONS:II.Institutions,ActorsandActions

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THISSEQUENCE:isthebestwaytotargetinterventions,givencurrentlevelofstatecapabilities.

Duringthestateofemergency:•  Designeffectiveparticipatorycommunicationstrategies•  Guaranteeaccesstocleanwater,soapandotherproductsneededtoprevent

infection•  Guaranteeaccesstoincome,food,andotheressentialgoods•  Ensureinternetconnectivityinmarginalizedareas•  Convertspacessuchasschoolsandhotelsintotemporaryhospitalsforisolating

patientswhohavecontractedCovid-19orthosewhoshowsymptoms•  DesignstrategiesfortransportingpatientsrequiringspecializedcareAfterthestateofemergency:•  ProvidefreeaccesstoCovid-19teststothepoorestandmostvulnerable•  Keepopeningnewisolationcenterstoallowpeoplewhomaybeinfectedtobe

secluded•  Guaranteeaccesstosafedrinkingwater•  Ensureuniversalinternetconnectivityinmarginalizedareas•  Provideuniversalaccesstobankservicesanddebitcardstothepoorand

vulnerable

III.SPECIFICRECOMMENDATIONSReduceepidemiologicalrisksofillnessanddeath:

•  Accesstoincome,foodandbasicservices–  Governmenttransfers–  Temporaryemploymentprograms

•  Directfooddistribution•  Deferraloreliminationofcertaintaxes•  Preventcuttingofbasicserviceslikewater,electricityandWi-Fitovulnerable

households•  Mitigationofdomesticviolence•  Keepeducating•  GuaranteeaccesstohealthcareandmedicationsbeyondCovid-19•  Attentiontoespeciallyvulnerablegroups:at-riskchildrenandyouth,migrants,the

homeless,sexworkers,andimprisonedpeople

III.SPECIFICRECOMMENDATIONS.Protectinglivelihoods,humancapitalandaccesstobasicservices:

KEYMESSAGES

1.  TheCOVID-19pandemicishittingpoorandvulnerablepopulationsthehardestq  Healthrisksq  Livingconditions

2.  Notonlyaffectingthemonetarypoorq  Alsomanyotherdeprivations

3.  Actionstomitigatetheimpactarecrucialü  Ethicalreasonsü  Toavoidirreversibleeffectsonhumancapital

ü  Externalities§  RaghuramRajan:“Inorderforanywhereintheworldtobesafe,thevirushastobedefeatedeverywhere”

4.  Effectiveresponseswillrequire:Ø  Resources(BUDGETARYPRIORITY)Ø  Vigorous,focusedandwell-implementedactions(POLITICALANDINSTITUTIONALPRIORITY)–

Notjustfinancialtransfers

5.  Althoughgovernmentsmustplayacentralrole….Ø  Collaborationoflocalgrassrootsorganizations(NGOs,etc.)isalsocrucial

THANKYOU

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