could china pass the us? goldman sachs says that china can become the largest economy in the world...

Could China Pass the US?

• Goldman Sachs says that China can become the largest economy in the world by 2035 by growing by 5% a year.

• What does the world look like when China’s economy is 9x bigger than it is today?

• What opportunities does this represent for entrepreneurs?

India is Rising

• Goldman Sachs says that India can challenge the US for #2 by 2040 by growing by 6% a year.

• What does the world look like when the Indian economy is 12x bigger than it is today?

• What opportunities does this represent for entrepreneurs?

Here Comes The BRIC Middle Class• Goldman Sachs predicts the BRIC Middle Class could grow from 250 million to 1 billion in the next decade

• McKinsey says the Chinese middle class will grow from 80 million in 2007 to 700 million in 2020.

• Goldman says that the BRIC Middle Class could grow from 250 million in 2005 to 3.5 billion by 2050*

Jim O'Neill, Managing Director & Head of Global Economic Research, Goldman Sachs, 5/06McKinsey & Company, Inc.

How Far The BRICs Have Come• In 2006 the G7 (the US, Japan, Germany, France, Britain,

Italy & Canada) held $1,253,900,000,000 in FOREX • By the end of 2007 China’s FOREX reserves had passed

$1,500,000,000,000• China spent $65 billion for the Olympics. 5x the cost of

the Athens Olympics. • China then invested $300 billion to create the China

Investment Corporation

• Today, China has $2,640,000,000,000 in FOREX reserves.

• America’s debt, on the other hand, will increase by $1,000,000,000,000+ in 2011.

A Warning From The Future?

• The Chinese Professor

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTSQozWP-rM

Just The Facts, Jack (Billion US$)

• May 2008– China = $506.8– Japan= $575.3– Caribbean Banking Centers

= $104.5– Oil Exporters = $164.2– UK = $271.2– Brazil = $151.4– Russia = $63.7– Luxembourg = $75.2– Hong Kong = $61.4– Taiwan = $38.9

• Aug 2010– China = $868.4– Japan = $836.6– UK = $448.4– Oil Exporters = $226.6– Brazil = $165.0– Caribbean Banking Centers =

$159.1– Hong Kong = $137.8– Taiwan = $130.2– Russia = $129.0– Switzerland = $106.6

• http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

Cell Phone Penetration• China– 15 million users in 1997– 410 million users in 2006– 703 million users in 2009– 845 million users by end of

2010– 1.2 billion by 2014– Added 9.4 million new

users in May– 303,226 per day!

• India– 340,000 users in 1997– 525 million users in 2009– 766 million users by end

of 2010– 1 billion+ users by 2012– Added 19 million new

users each month in the first four months of 2010

– 633,333 per day!

GDP Predictions

CHINA COULD PASS US BY 2012!

Houston, We Have A Problem!

Source: The Conference Board Report issued on November 10, 2010 using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

Exploding Energy Consumption

Energy, China and India

Dr. P. Konana, McCombs Business School, University of Texas at Austin 12

A Swarm of Inflection Points

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This is a Brazilian Super Tanker

An Orange Juice Super Tanker

This is a Brazilian Jet

Inside Air Canada’s Embraer 190

Add A Large Dash of Oil . . .

Competing With M&A

• Mittal Steel acquires Arcelor– ArcelorMittal is the #1 Steel Company in the

World with 310,000 employees in 60 Countries