cost estimate management, cost trends and long range estimates for turnpike enterprise / fice...

Cost Estimate Management, Cost Trends and

Long Range Estimates

for Turnpike Enterprise / FICEEstimates Training

Cost Estimate Management, Cost Trends and

Long Range Estimates

for Turnpike Enterprise / FICEEstimates Training

Dale StanleyFDOT Estimating Systems Support Manager

(850) 414-4197 SC 994-4197dale.stanley@dot.state.fl.us

Dale StanleyFDOT Estimating Systems Support Manager

(850) 414-4197 SC 994-4197dale.stanley@dot.state.fl.us

TopicsTopics

• Part 1:– Cost Estimate Management– Cost Trends– Communication

• Part 2:– Estimating Systems– LRE Update

• Part 1:– Cost Estimate Management– Cost Trends– Communication

• Part 2:– Estimating Systems– LRE Update

Part 1Part 1

Cost Estimate ManagementCost Estimate Managementandand

Cost TrendsCost Trends

Cost EstimateManagementCost EstimateManagement

• Means controlling scope of work and design parameters to stay within the construction cost budget

• Cost Estimates Task Team: “TheProject Scope of Work should be well defined early in project development. Significant scope changes should be approved by upper management.”

• Means controlling scope of work and design parameters to stay within the construction cost budget

• Cost Estimates Task Team: “TheProject Scope of Work should be well defined early in project development. Significant scope changes should be approved by upper management.”

• There may be times when changes are necessary, but cost managementinvolves knowing the cost impact of these changes.

• We can’t expect to add work to a project without increasing the cost!

• There may be times when changes are necessary, but cost managementinvolves knowing the cost impact of these changes.

• We can’t expect to add work to a project without increasing the cost!

Cost EstimateManagementCost EstimateManagement

• Cost Estimates Task Team:

“Estimates should NEVER be artificially constrainedto stay within budget.”

• Cost Estimates Task Team:

“Estimates should NEVER be artificially constrainedto stay within budget.”

Cost EstimateManagementCost EstimateManagement

UpdatingBudget Estimates UpdatingBudget Estimates

• In many cases, cost estimates are not updated frequently enough to reflect the latest scope of work until Phase III plans, when the pay items and quantities are available.

• Cost Estimates Task Team: “Estimates should be updated at every project phase and at least every six months, whether or not final quantities are available.”

• In many cases, cost estimates are not updated frequently enough to reflect the latest scope of work until Phase III plans, when the pay items and quantities are available.

• Cost Estimates Task Team: “Estimates should be updated at every project phase and at least every six months, whether or not final quantities are available.”

• Performance and Quality measures are based on the estimates at:– Initial entry into the Work Program– Scope development– Phase 2, 30% Plans stage– Official Estimate

• Performance and Quality measures are based on the estimates at:– Initial entry into the Work Program– Scope development– Phase 2, 30% Plans stage– Official Estimate

UpdatingBudget Estimates UpdatingBudget Estimates

Estimates MUST be updated at each of these milestones !!

CommunicationCommunication

Work ProgramWork Program

EstimatorEstimator

Project ManagerProject Manager

CommunicationCommunication

• Cost Estimate Task Team: “The Districts should foster a culture that requires a close working relationship between project consultants, project managers and estimators to ensure the project features are accurately reflected in the estimate.”

• Cost Estimate Task Team: “The Districts should foster a culture that requires a close working relationship between project consultants, project managers and estimators to ensure the project features are accurately reflected in the estimate.”

What Happens When the Estimator Isn’t Informed?

What Happens When the Estimator Isn’t Informed?

Project Scope/Cost Tracking

$0.00

$10,000,000.00

$20,000,000.00

$30,000,000.00

$40,000,000.00

$50,000,000.00

$60,000,000.00

$70,000,000.00

$80,000,000.00

Initial LRE Scope LRE Phase 2 Phase 4

2/23/2003 4/22/2004 1/20/2005 6/21/2005

Phase & Date

Es

tim

ate

What Happens When the Estimator Isn’t Informed?What Happens When the Estimator Isn’t Informed?

Project Scope/Cost Tracking

$0.00

$2,000,000.00

$4,000,000.00

$6,000,000.00

$8,000,000.00

$10,000,000.00

$12,000,000.00

$14,000,000.00

$16,000,000.00

$18,000,000.00

$20,000,000.00

InitialLRE

ScopeLRE

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4

9/1/1999 12/6/2000 1/14/2003 6/1/2003 8/1/2004 1/1/2005

Phase & Date

Es

tim

ate

Consequences of Bad EstimatesConsequences of Bad Estimates

• What happens if we underestimate?– Projects may have to be moved out.– Related activities (R/W, Utilities) will be

affected.

• What happens if we overestimate?– Production limits are not achieved.– Public lack of confidence – we could have

done more with the money we had.

• What happens if we underestimate?– Projects may have to be moved out.– Related activities (R/W, Utilities) will be

affected.

• What happens if we overestimate?– Production limits are not achieved.– Public lack of confidence – we could have

done more with the money we had.

Recent Cost Recent Cost TrendsTrends

• Asphalt– Jan-Dec 2003 $53.93/ton– Jan-Dec 2005 $77.66/ton

• Concrete (Structural)– Jan-Dec 2003 $549.82/CY– Jan-Dec 2005 $761.71/CY

• Steel (Reinforcing)– Jan-Dec 2003 $.52/LB– Jan-Dec 2005 $0.91/LB

• Asphalt– Jan-Dec 2003 $53.93/ton– Jan-Dec 2005 $77.66/ton

• Concrete (Structural)– Jan-Dec 2003 $549.82/CY– Jan-Dec 2005 $761.71/CY

• Steel (Reinforcing)– Jan-Dec 2003 $.52/LB– Jan-Dec 2005 $0.91/LB

Figures based on Weighted Averages

44.0%44.0%

38.5%38.5%

75.0%75.0%

Recent Cost Trends(Annual Averages)Recent Cost Trends(Annual Averages)

Rising Asphalt Costsby QuarterRising Asphalt Costsby Quarter

$85.38

$51.60+20.1%

Rising Concrete Costsby QuarterRising Concrete Costsby Quarter

$490.02

$1,045.14

+64.2%

Rising Steel Costsby QuarterRising Steel Costsby Quarter

$1.28

$0.53+48.8%

Causes forMajor Cost IncreasesCauses forMajor Cost Increases

• Construction market saturation:– “Hot” Market, both public and private sector– Labor and equipment shortages, due to

hurricane recovery efforts– Material shortages

• Fuel cost increases• Project requirements:

– Hours of operation– Night work– Delayed start

• Construction market saturation:– “Hot” Market, both public and private sector– Labor and equipment shortages, due to

hurricane recovery efforts– Material shortages

• Fuel cost increases• Project requirements:

– Hours of operation– Night work– Delayed start

Part 2Part 2Estimating SystemsEstimating Systems

and LRE Updateand LRE Update

Estimating SystemsEstimating Systems

• Long Range Estimates (LRE)– Budget, 5-Year Work Program– Conceptual, prior to 60% Plans– FDOT developed – “First in the Nation”

• TRNS*PORT– Quantities based on complete Design– Department’s Official Estimate– AASHTO owned – developed by Infotech

• Long Range Estimates (LRE)– Budget, 5-Year Work Program– Conceptual, prior to 60% Plans– FDOT developed – “First in the Nation”

• TRNS*PORT– Quantities based on complete Design– Department’s Official Estimate– AASHTO owned – developed by Infotech

FM

WorkProgram

FM

WorkProgram

TRNS•PORT

PESTRNS•PORT

PES

TRNS•PORT

DSSdatabase

TRNS•PORT

DSSdatabase

LRELRE

LAS

TRNS*PORT

CESTRNS*PORT

CES

Systems InteractionSystems Interaction

LRE Price UpdateLRE Price Update

Price Update ProcessPrice Update Process

• Update occurs each month– Uses 1 year of bid history– Uses all bidders

• New prices will appear on newly created projects

• Existing projects must be “refreshed” for new prices

• Blocked projects and locked pay item prices are not affected by price refresh.

• Update occurs each month– Uses 1 year of bid history– Uses all bidders

• New prices will appear on newly created projects

• Existing projects must be “refreshed” for new prices

• Blocked projects and locked pay item prices are not affected by price refresh.

Price Refresh Utilitiesavailable to LRE CoordinatorsPrice Refresh Utilitiesavailable to LRE Coordinators

• Refresh Project Prices - allows individual, unblocked projects to be refreshed

• Mass Refresh of Project Prices – allows all unblocked projects within a District to be refreshed

• Mass Refresh of Selected Pay Items – allows selected pay item prices to be refreshed on all unblocked projects within a District.

• Refresh Project Prices - allows individual, unblocked projects to be refreshed

• Mass Refresh of Project Prices – allows all unblocked projects within a District to be refreshed

• Mass Refresh of Selected Pay Items – allows selected pay item prices to be refreshed on all unblocked projects within a District.

• Reset and/or Lock default county prices on individual pay items

• Lock individual pay item prices within a project

• Reset and/or Lock default county prices on individual pay items

• Lock individual pay item prices within a project

Lock Price Featuresavailable to LRE CoordinatorsLock Price Featuresavailable to LRE Coordinators

Reset / Lock Default Prices FeatureReset / Lock Default Prices Feature

This price should be reset

Lock Project Prices FeatureLock Project Prices Feature

Consultant Designers and PricingConsultant Designers and Pricing

• Pricing LRE projects is usually done by the District Estimates Office, but each District has its own policy regarding pricing requirements.

• Make sure you know what your District requires!

• Pricing LRE projects is usually done by the District Estimates Office, but each District has its own policy regarding pricing requirements.

• Make sure you know what your District requires!

Upcoming EnhancementsUpcoming Enhancements

Interchange ModelsInterchange Models

• Default models will be available for several basic interchange designs (i.e., Compressed Diamond, Rural Diamond, Partial Cloverleaf, Semi-Directional, etc.)

• Model Selection will be from the sequence selection screen:

• Default models will be available for several basic interchange designs (i.e., Compressed Diamond, Rural Diamond, Partial Cloverleaf, Semi-Directional, etc.)

• Model Selection will be from the sequence selection screen:

Interchange Model SelectionInterchange Model Selection

DRAFTSubject to

Change

Also In-Work:Also In-Work:

• Change spec year to 2004

• New Utility to copy a sequence from within the project

• New Field – “Quantities Complete in Trns*Port”

• Change spec year to 2004

• New Utility to copy a sequence from within the project

• New Field – “Quantities Complete in Trns*Port”

Intranet InternetIntranet Internet

• Next on the priority list - expected release in May

• No more VPN!!

• You will be notified when the permanent web address is known

• Next on the priority list - expected release in May

• No more VPN!!

• You will be notified when the permanent web address is known

Modifications TrackingModifications Tracking

• Tab on the Main Version view will list:– Date and time of change– Userid– Type of change (code, drills down to details)– Net change in primary version cost

• Tab on the Main Version view will list:– Date and time of change– Userid– Type of change (code, drills down to details)– Net change in primary version cost

Date/Time of Change Changed by UserID

Type of Change*

Net Change in Primary Version Cost

06/01/2003 11:50:15 KN12345 1 + $10,000,000.00

02/01/2004 09:20:35 KN12345 3, 8 + $500,000.00

10/01/2004 14:50:45 KN12345 2 - $300,000.00

01/10/2005 09:50:05 KN12345 8 + $500,000.00

Architectural ComponentArchitectural Component

• Provide site work details – Earthwork, Drainage, Electrical, Concrete, Hardscape, Utilities, Paving, Signing, Safety, Landscaping

• Choose building type from selection list – Administration, Rest Area, Weigh Station, Toll Plaza, Utility, Parking, ITS

• Provide Building details – SF, costs for concrete, masonry, metals, wood & plastics, doors & windows, finishes, etc., and cost-per SF will be calculated

• Provide site work details – Earthwork, Drainage, Electrical, Concrete, Hardscape, Utilities, Paving, Signing, Safety, Landscaping

• Choose building type from selection list – Administration, Rest Area, Weigh Station, Toll Plaza, Utility, Parking, ITS

• Provide Building details – SF, costs for concrete, masonry, metals, wood & plastics, doors & windows, finishes, etc., and cost-per SF will be calculated

Links to Typical Section SketchesLinks to Typical Section Sketches

Other Pending EnhancementsOther Pending Enhancements

• ITS as a subcomponent of Signalization

• Revise bridge types to match Trns*Port

• Updated pay items and fields for grassing, finished soil layer, rumble strips, etc.

• Many other minor enhancements

• ITS as a subcomponent of Signalization

• Revise bridge types to match Trns*Port

• Updated pay items and fields for grassing, finished soil layer, rumble strips, etc.

• Many other minor enhancements

Our goal is to make the LRE system as easy and effective as possible for you!

Our goal is to make the LRE system as easy and effective as possible for you!

TrainingTraining

• Conducted in Districts, upon request

• One full-day session

• You must have an active userID

• PDH credits are now available

• Contact your District LRE Coordinator for information on upcoming classes.

• Conducted in Districts, upon request

• One full-day session

• You must have an active userID

• PDH credits are now available

• Contact your District LRE Coordinator for information on upcoming classes.

District EstimatesCoordinatorsDistrict EstimatesCoordinators

• D1 – Steve Walls• D2 – W.C. Cobb• D3 – Jess Bruner• D4 – Gene Lipscomb• D5 – Jonathan Linforth / Ed Kestory• D6 – Ruben Rivero• D7 – Jason Spilak• TP – Don Brackins• CO – Dale Stanley / Tyrone Ware

• D1 – Steve Walls• D2 – W.C. Cobb• D3 – Jess Bruner• D4 – Gene Lipscomb• D5 – Jonathan Linforth / Ed Kestory• D6 – Ruben Rivero• D7 – Jason Spilak• TP – Don Brackins• CO – Dale Stanley / Tyrone Ware