cosmic rays and global warming

Cosmic Rays andGlobal WarmingCosmic Rays andGlobal WarmingA.D.Erlykin1,2, G. Gyalai3, K. Kudela3,

T. Sloan4 and A.W. Wolfendale2

A.D.Erlykin1,2, G. Gyalai3, K. Kudela3,T. Sloan4 and A.W. Wolfendale2

1. Lebedev, Moscow2. University, Durham3. Academy, Kosice4. University, Lancaster

1. Lebedev, Moscow2. University, Durham3. Academy, Kosice4. University, Lancaster

21st ECRS Kosice, 200821st ECRS Kosice, 2008

Low cloud cover anomalies and CR intensity(Huancayo) – Svensmark (2007)

Global monthly cloud anomalies(Svensmark, 2007)

a : high clouds (<440 h Pa)

b : middle (440 – 680 h Pa)

c : low (>680 h Pa)

clou

d an

omal

ies

(%)

clou

d an

omal

ies

(%)

clou

d an

omal

ies

(%)

cosm

ic ra

ys (%

)co

smic

rays

(%)

cosm

ic ra

ys (%

)

year

Red Cosmic Rays (Huancayo)Blue Cloud cover

(b)

(a)

(c)

A Basic Problem for LCC, CR correlation

TypicalCumulusTypicalCumulus

( 10m)

( 1m)

sharptransition

diffuse transition

1km

Much of CR-induced cloud will be below ( and above ) the existingcloud – and will not contribute to the measured LCC.

0.4km

Peak to peak 11 year cycle inNM data vs VRCO comparedwith ionization calculations ofUsoskin and Kovaltsov (2006).

Peak to peak 11 year cycle inNM data vs VRCO comparedwith ionization calculations ofUsoskin and Kovaltsov (2006).

Dip depth vs VRCODip depth vs VRCO

NM

Us. et al.

Ions as condensation centres for clouds ?

CR produce ~ 3 ion pairs cm-3s-1 in the lower

atmosphere. Lifetime is ~ 50sec, so ~ 150cm-3.

Clouds have ~ 100 droplets cm-3 so a link

would appear to be obvious.

But

Supersaturations in atmosphere far too lowfor ions to be at an advantage. Aerosols (saltparticles, dust, industrial emissions…) dominate.Sizes 10-1(10±2).~~

Z = 0

Z = 1000

Effect of charge and radius on

supersaturation. 5 x 10-18g ofdissolved salt.

Effect of charge and radius on

supersaturation. 5 x 10-18g ofdissolved salt.

Charges on drops

A literature survey gives the following mean charges (e)in the normal atmosphere:

Can be much higher in thunderclouds.

Evidence from radioactive ‘events’

Chernobyl

~~

April 26, 1986 2 Mt of fall-out.No increase in cloud cover.(ions cloud droplets) 3%~

CC

an

om

aly

(%)

CC

an

om

aly

(%)

Nuclear Bomb Tests

Eg. BRAVO - Bikini Atoll, March 1, 1954. ~ 15 Mt radioactive particles, 10 - 100

300 miles from Ground Zero, dose rate ~ 100 Rh-1, after 4 days. Yields 5.107 ions cm-3 s-1

Averaging over space and time and allowingfor size distribution yields.

10-4~

Radon

Radon is an important contributor to atmosphericionization over land.

Indian ‘hot spots’, particularly in the SW.

Scans of low CC over tworegions show no excess and

25%

Cosmic rays or Solar Irradiance ?

Evidence from the powerspectra

SSN

CR and its powerspectrum

Low Cloud CoverLow Cloud Cover

Temperature Changes

CR – change over last 40 yearstoo small to affect temperature.CR – change over last 40 yearstoo small to affect temperature.

Different responses of clouds to solar input - Voiculescu et al. (2006)

Faction of Globe having correlation of CC with UV or CR ionization(+ correln. minus – correln.)

Time dependence of cloud cover :

‘Extended Edited Cloud

Report Archive’

(Warren & Hahn via Norris,

2004), in comparison with

Climax CR rate.

Cloud Top Pressure

Extra solar energy at SSN max. increases cloud heights – and

increases HCC. Just as expected for SI – opposite to expectation

for Cosmic Ray Ionization.

Conclusions

1. Cloud Geometry – saturation.

2. Radon, Chernobyl & Bomb tests – no signal.

3. Charges on condensation nuclei far too small.

4. No change of dip with CR rigidity.

5. High Cloud Cover in anti-phase with CR.

6. HCC vs time (last 50 years) anti-correlated with CR.

Causal correlation of LCC and CR highly unlikely, because

LCC and SI probably related because

1. Power spectra match better than for LCC & CR.

2. Energetics much more reasonable (108 x).

3. Geographical distribution of stronger correlations,

fits LCC vs SI.

4. From 1960 to present : Temperature profile fits SSN

better than CR.