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CORRAL PETROLEUM HOLDINGS ABQ2 2019 September 3, 2019
Petter HollandCEO
Peder ZetterbergCFO (acting)
2
Presenters
DisclaimerThis presentation has been prepared by Corral Petroleum Holdings AB (publ) and/or its subsidiaries and affiliates (“Corral”). The information contained in this presentation is for information purposes only.
Among other things, this presentation is intended to be used in connection with a scheduled international conference call for investors and analysts to be held on September 3, 2019 at 3:00 pm CET. Thedial-in number is for Standard International Access +44 (0) 20 3003 2666, Stockholm +46 (0) 8 50520424, New York +1 212 999 6659. The meeting code is Corral Q2.
The conference call will also be available for replay for a limited time beginning on September 4, 2019 with access information to be posted via the "Press and Notices" heading of the Corral investorssection of Preem's website at https://www.preem.se/en/in-english/investors/corral/results-and-reporting2/.
The information contained in this presentation is not intended to be used as the basis for making an investment decision. You are solely responsible for seeking independent professional advice in relationto the information. This presentation is not and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation, invitation or recommendation to purchase any securities in the United States or any other jurisdiction.Securities may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration under the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”) or an exemption from registration. This presentation may not bereproduced, disseminated, quoted or referred to, in whole or in part. This presentation speaks as of the date of this presentation. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to thefairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information, opinions and conclusions contained in this presentation. Neither the shareholders of Corral nor any directors, officers, employees,agents or representatives of Corral, provide, grant or state, any representation, warranty, guarantee, undertaking or obligation, whether express or implied and whether by operation of law or otherwise,regarding or in relation to the completeness or the accuracy of the information contained in this presentation, and they are under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained in thispresentation, to correct any inaccuracies which may become apparent, or to publicly announce the result of any revision to the statements made herein except where they would be required to do sounder applicable law, and any opinions expressed in this presentation are subject to change without notice. No liability whatsoever for any loss, howsoever arising, from any use of this presentation or itscontents is accepted by any such person in relation to such information.
Certain financial data included in the presentation are “non-IFRS financial measures.” These non-IFRS financial measures may not be comparable to similarly titled measures presented by other entities, norshould they be construed as an alternative to other financial measures determined in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”). Although Corral believes these non-IFRS financialmeasures provide useful information to users in measuring the financial performance and condition of its business, users are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any non-IFRS financial measures andratios included in this presentation.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements. Examples of these forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to statements of plans, objectives or goals and statements ofassumptions underlying those statements. Words such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “intend”, “plan”, “estimate”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “continue”, “probability”, “risk” and other similar words are intendedto identify forward-looking statements but are not the exclusive means of identifying those statements. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, bothgeneral and specific, and risks exist that such predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements will not be achieved. A number of important factors could cause our actual results todiffer materially from the plans, objectives, expectations, estimates and intentions expressed in such forward-looking statements. Past performance of Corral cannot be relied on as a guide to futureperformance. Forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this presentation. Corral, its agents and advisors and all of their employees expressly disclaim any obligations or undertaking torelease any update of, or revisions to, any forward-looking statements in this presentation. No statement in this presentation is intended to be a profit forecast. As such, undue influence should not beplaced on any forward-looking statement.
By attending this presentation or by reading the presentation slides, you are agreeing to be bound by the foregoing limitations and restrictions and, in particular, will be deemed to have represented,warranted and undertaken that you have read and agree to comply with the contents of this disclaimer.
3
Crude
5
The oil price can move between 2-3 USD/bbl up or own in a single session these days, yet for all the big price swings it remains largely where it’s been since early June — with Brent anchored around 60 UDD/bbl
2Q
Oil demand grows 1.2 MBD, or 1.2%, with global GDP growth 3.1%-- below the long-term trend of 3.5% --
6
Source: Pira
Bearish sentiment is pushing Dated Brent prices some 10 USD/Bbl below
where fundamentals (crude stocks) indicate they should be.
► Global economic slowdown.
1H’19 demand growth lower than anticipated at 0,8 MBD.
► Escalating US/China trade war.
► Robust non-OPEC production growth
US production growth estimated at around 1.7 MBD for 2019 (incl. NGL).
► OPEC battle to continue to balance the market.
OPEC supply cut 1.9 MBD -- under pressure due to rising US output.
World oil supply and demand 2019 versus 2018
Middle distillate cracks remain firm near term -- then increase rapidly in late 2019 with IMO 2020 approaching
7
IMO 2020 starting to make itself felt
Source: Pira
Source: Pira
Source: Pira
HSFO cracks strong in mid-2019 as demand still based on HSFO; -- much weaker in 2H19 and 2020
Global refinery margins recovering after a difficult 2Q 2019
8
Global Refinery Throughput
2Q
NWE Hydro Cracking Forties Margin
Products
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$/bbl Diesel cracks
5 yr Range (2014-2018) 2018
2019 5 yr Average (2014-2018)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$/bbl Gasoline cracks
5 yr Range (2014-2018) 2018
2019 5 yr Average (2014-2018)
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec$/bbl Fuel oil cracks
5 yr Range (2014-2018) 20182019 5 yr Average (2014-2018)
9
10
Preem Refining Margins
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$/bbl Lysekil Refinery
5 yr Range (2014-2018) 20182019 5 yr Average (2014-2018)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$/bbl Gothenburg Refinery
5 yr Range (2014-2018) 20182019 5 yr Average (2014-2018)
Forecast 2019 Aug Forecast 2019 Aug
► Lysekil refinery shutting down early September for it’s 6-year planned turnaround.
► Mechanical work to be completed in 2H October, for the refinery to gradually return to normal operation in late October / early November.
Key notes
11
Projects and ActivitiesMilestones
Refinancing
Other
► Lysekil 6-year turnaround will take place during a 7 weeks period in September and October.-Shutdown and emptying of units will start on September 6, 2019.-Mechanical work core period is 6-7 weeks from September 17 till around November 1, 2019.-Crude-Oil-Unit (CDU) oil-in will be around November 11, 2019, with products to tank from the last units Iso-Cracker and Cat-Cracker around mid-November.
► Corral Petroleum Holdings and Preem continue to progress, in collaboration with various potential financiers, a plan to refinance the Group, in which redemption of the 2021 Notes may be one possible component. The discussions with the potential financiers are on-going and the target remains to finalize a refinancing during 2019, but this may vary due to a number of factors, including market conditions.
► No decision regarding a potential IPO has yet been taken. This information does not constitute a notice of redemption of the 2021 Notes, nor is it an offer to sell or a solicitation of offers to purchase any securities.
► The Minister of the Environment and Climate, Isabella Lövin, announced on Friday Aug 23rd that the government will take over the permissibility application for Preem's planned expansion in Lysekil (the “ROCC-project”) from the Land and Environmental Supreme Court. The judicial process will however progress as normal with a statement from the Land and Environmental Supreme Court to the government expected in late Q1 /early Q2 2020. A decision by the government could then come no earlier than Q2 2020. The plan for the ROCC-project is that the project shall be presented for Board approval by the end of 2020.
12
FINANCIAL SUMMARYSECOND QUARTER 2019
13
Weighted Refining Margin and Throughput 2009-2019
LTM-19 Q2 118,77910yr (2009-2018) 113,9715yr (2014-2018) 116,402
LTM-19 Q2 4.6410yr (2009-2018) 4.515yr (2014-2018) 5.10
Weighted refining margin ($/bbl) Throughput (000’ bbl)
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$/bbl
Refining margin ($/bbl) 10 year average 5 year average
85 000
90 000
95 000
100 000
105 000
110 000
115 000
120 000
125 000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
000's bbls
Throughput 10 year average 5 year average
Group Results Q2 2019
► Sales revenue in the second quarter of 2019 amounted to 22,771 MSEK
compared to 23,401 MSEK in the second quarter of 2018, a decrease of 630
MSEK. The decrease in sales revenue is primarily a result of lower crude and
product prices.
► From the second quarter 2019, Preem has moved to a new ERP platform, and as
a part of this transformation, Preem has updated its definition of adjusted
EBITDA. The new definition is a more precise calculation of adjusted EBITDA
compared to the old definition. Adjusted EBITDA for all periods prior to April 1,
2019 should not be viewed as comparable to periods from and after April 1,
2019.
► Both the old and the new methodologies are shown for second quarter and last
twelve months to enhance understanding.
14
EBITDA Margin(% of revenue) 4 % 2 % 3% 4% 4% 4%
Revenues, SEK m. Key notes
Adjusted EBITDA*, SEK m.
-3% 16%
*As defined in the Corral Petroleum Holdings AB (publ) report for the second quarter ended 30 June, 2019. Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2018 is to be found in the Corral Petroleum Holdings AB (publ) report for the second quarter ended 30 June, 2018**Calculated according to the previous methodology.
23,401 22,771
79,49192,574
Q2 18 Q2 19 LTM 18 LTM 19
847 454 746
3,490 3,398 3,690
Q2 18 Q2 19 Q2 19** LTM 18 LTM 19 LTM 19**
Adjusted EBITDA
15
Comments Old Definition Comments New Definition
1. FIFO and/or Inventory Impairment Reversal Price effect Normal position of Oil (11.6 Mbbl), Marked to Market (FIFO reversal) Price effect on volumes sold including both price and FX effects
No adjustment for stock writedown Reversal of stock writedown
2. Normal Position and/or AR and AP FX Reversal Reversal of FX effects on Normal Position, AR and AP Reversal of FX effects on AR and AP
3. Normal Position and Strategic Hedge Cashflows No adjustment for hedging activities Adjustments for hedging activities
Q1 Q2
Line Item (MSEK) Category Old Old New
Reported EBITDA 819 820 820
1. FIFO and/or Inventory Impairment Reversal Inventory Gains/Losses -100 -125 -252
2. Normal Position and/or AR and AP FX Reversal FX Gains/Losses -171 50 57
3. Normal Position and Strategic Hedge Cashflows Hedge Gains/Losses n/a n/a -171
Adjusted EBITDA 547 746 454
4.65 3.94 5.09 4.64
Q2 18 Q2 19 LTM 18 LTM 19
7469
64
69
Q2 18 Q2 19 LTM 18 LTM 19
30,713 30,443
118,197 118,779
Q2 18 Q2 19 LTM 18 LTM 19
► Our Supply & Refining segment reported an operating profit of 1,161 MSEK for the second quarter of 2019, a decrease of 227 MSEK, compared with an operating profit of 1,388 MSEK for the second quarter of 2018.
► The average price of Dated Brent in the second quarter of 2019 was 69 $/bbl, compared to an average price of 63 $/bbl in the first quarter of 2019. In the second quarter of 2018 the average price was 74 $/bbl.The oil prices pushed higher in the first half of the second quarter with the crude oil producers holding back production and the subsequent expectation market would tighten, the geopolitical tensions also helped. Dated Brent topped at 75 $/bbl May 16th. Later the global economics concerns and the expected effect on demand growth turned the focus and prices came off. The low for the second quarter occurred on June 5th
at 62 $/bbl for Dated Brent but later market gained some momentum again and ended the quarter at 66 $/bbl.
► The weighted refining margin decreased to 3.94 $/bbl for the second quarter of 2019 compared to 4.65 $/bbl for the second quarter of 2018. The lower refining margins in our Lysekil refinery has been almost fully offset by the weaker SEK versus USD in the period.
► In the beginning of May 2019, there were production disruptions at our Lysekil refinery related to leakage in our crude oil distillation unit. The unit was repaired and fully back in operation after eleven days of down time.
Supply & Refining Segment
16
-7% 8%
0%
Throughput (000´ bbls) Key notes
Average Brent Crude Price ($/bbl)
Weighted Refining Margin ($/bbl)
-1%
-9%-15%
17
Brent Oil price and weighted refining margin July and forecast August 2019
Average Brent Oil price and weighted refining margin Q2 2017 to Q2 2019
66,82
74,39 75,2769,86
63,13
69,4164,98
58,82
3,94
4,65
5,98
4,90
3,533,94
6,32
7,17
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
0,00
10,00
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
60,00
70,00
80,00
18Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 19Q1
19Q2
JUL/19 AUG/19Forecast
Brent Dated oil price - average $/bbl Refining margin $/bbl
6,332 6,840
21,57325,574
Q2 18 Q2 19 LTM 18 LTM 19
► Sales revenue is driven by expansion in Norway, our Business-to-
business segment and a revenue increase due to mandatory
greenhouse gas reduction on fuels implemented on July 1, 2018.
► Marketing segment reported an operating profit of 91 MSEK for the
second quarter of 2019 compared to 143 MSEK for the second quarter
of 2018, a decrease of 52 MSEK.
EBITDA Margin(% of Revenue) 2.8% 2.4% 3.4% 2.7%
18
Marketing Segment
.
19%
8%
Revenues, SEK m. Key notes
EBITDA, SEK m.
178 162
742 656
Q2 18 Q2 19 LTM 18 LTM 19
-12%
-9%
► Specific Projects
The VDU investment in Lysekil, 197 MSEK HY 2019
Strategic IT project, 131 MSEK HY 2019
HPU investment, 72 MSEK HY 2019
GHT investment 67 MSEK HY 2019
► Recurring maintenance
Higher capex HY 2019 vs 2018 due to Major turnarounds, Refining maintenance and regulatory investments.
*Shown on a gross basis.
19
Capital Expenditures
20562056
255537
1,106
668143
118
135
140566
475
1,096
1,248
HY 18 HY 19 2017 2018
Recurring maintenance Incremental improvements Specific projects
2,056
1,130
2,337
964
Capex by Purpose*, SEK m. Key notes
Cash Flow
20
Cash Flow, SEK m.YTD
Q2 19YTD
Q2 18LTMQ2 19
LTM Q2 18
Profit before taxes -396 -375 -13 1,578Adjustments for items not included in cash flow 1,349 2,071 1,747 3,048Tax paid -2 -5 -3 -7
Decrease(+)/Increase(-) in inventories -1,241 -761 -743 -3,664Decrease(+)/Increase(-) in operating receivables -4,364 72 -4,376 -824Decrease(-)/Increase(+) in operating liabilities 2,624 262 485 1,995
Changes in working capital -2,981 -427 -4,634 -2,493Cash flow from operating activities -2,030 1,264 -2,903 2,126
Cash flow used in investing activities -760 -991 -1,853 -2,477-2,790 273 -4,756 -352
Amortization/Raising of loans 2,777 -108 4,910 671Loan expenditure -3 0 -3 0Cash flow used in financing activities 2,697 -108 4,830 671
Cash flow for the period -94 165 74 319
► Cash flow used in investing activities amounted to 760 MSEK in the first six months of 2019, a decrease of 231 MSEK, compared to 991 MSEK for the same period in 2018.
► Cash flow from financing activities amounted to 2,697 MSEK for the first six months of 2019 compared to cash flow from financing activities of -108 MSEK for the same period of 2018. Cash flow from financing activities is attributable to (net) repayment of loans under Preem’s revolving credit facility as a consequence of the positive cash flow from operating activities.
► Cash flow was negatively impacted by movements in working capital of -2,980 MSEK for the first six months of 2019 compared to a negative impact of 427 MSEK for the same period in 2018.Inventories amounted to -1,241 MSEK in the first six months of 2019, primarily due to the higher price of crude oil. Operating receivables amounted to -4,364 MSEK for the first six months of 2019, primarily due to a slower invoicing and payment process during the transition to the new ERP system.Operating liabilities amounted to 2,624 MSEK primarily due to a higher volume of outstanding crude oil payments in combination with higher price of crude oil, with some one-off elements arising from transition to the new ERP system.
► Cash flow from operating activities includes cash coupon payments on the Corral Petroleum Holdings’ PIK toggle Senior Notes due 2021 (the “2021 Notes”), totaling 375 MSEK for the first quarter of 2019.
Key notes
21
Simplified Capital Structure
*The adjusted EBITDA is calculated with April 1 to June 30, 2019 using the new updated definition of adjusted EBITDA, added to adjusted EBITDA for July 1, 2018 to March 31, 2019 using the previous adjustment methodology. If the previous methodology was applied to the entire twelve month period ending June 30, 2019 adjusted EBITDA would be MSEK 3,690.**Exchange rate end of June, 2019
Key notesCapital structure by June 30, 2019
► Considerable increase in the RCF primarily due to a slower invoicing and payment process during the transition to the new ERP system.
► Calculated according to the pre-April 1, 2019 methodology the ratio of Total 3rd party debt to adjusted EBITDA would be 4.1x.
MSEK $M USD x Adjusted EBITDA
Cash -180 -19 -0.1RCF 10,196 1,100 3.0Other interest bearing liabilities and transaction expenses -121 -13 0.0Total net debt at Preem 9,895 1,067 2.92021 Corral Notes 6,518 703 1.9Transaction expenses -114 -12 0.0Cash -1,155 -125 -0.3Total 3rd party debt 15,144 1,633 4.5LTM Adj EBITDA* 3,398 367USDSEK exch.rate ** 9.27
Note: Drawdown and availability figures are not IFRS measures and are based on month end values averaged over LTM-June 2019. In part, these values are internal calculations based on variables that are subjectively determined and which may not be comparable in approach to similar calculations of other companies
22
Liquidity reserves
Drawdown and RCF Availability (USD m.)
695 751872
1,356
1,5451,529
2017 2018 2019Average Drawdown Average RCF Availability, Cash and A3 Facility
► Dated Brent Crude is a cargo of North Sea Brent blend crude oil that has been assigned a date when it will be loaded onto a tanker. In this Annual Report,
references to the price of Dated Brent Crude are derived from data provided by Platts, a division of McGraw Hill Financial Inc.
► Gross Refining Margin means the difference between the sales revenue received from the sale of refined products produced by a refinery and the cost of
crude oil and (where relevant) other immediate feedstocks processed by it.
► Hydrogen Production Unit (HPU) is a refinery unit that produces hydrogen for use refinery processes.
► Refining Margin is Gross refining margin less variable refining costs, which consist of volume related costs, such as the cost of energy. See “Management's
Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” for further discussion.
► Vacuum Distillation Unit (VDU) is a secondary processing unit consisting of vacuum distillation columns. Vacuum distillation helps to produce products out of
the heavier oils left over from atmospheric distillation.
► 2021 Notes refers to the (i) €570,000,000 aggregate principal amount of euro-denominated 11.750% / 13.250% senior PIK toggle notes due 15 May 2021,
issued by CPH on May 9, 2016, and (ii) SEK 500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of Swedish krona-denominated 12.250% / 13.750% senior PIK toggle notes
due 15 May 2021, issued by CPH on May 9, 2016
23
Definitions
For further information, please contact:Amelie WilsonInvestor Relation ManagerTel: + 46-70-450 10 10Email: amelie.wilson@preem.se
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