conference on biofuels in the transport sector bavarian ... · • liquid biofuels for aviation and...

Renewables in

Transport:

Options and

Opportunities

Conference on Biofuels

in the Transport Sector

Bavarian Representation

to the European Union

28 September 2017

Jeff Skeer

IRENA

Two Main RE Opportunities in Transport

• Renewable Power to Electrify Road Vehicles,

better batteries bringing greater EV range

mass production lowering EV purchase costs,

operating costs lower for EVs than oil-fueled vehicles

GHG emissions lower for EVs even with fossil-fueled

power, decline sharply as RE generating share grows

• Liquid Biofuels for Aviation and Marine Shipping

High power needs require fuel with high energy density

Liquid biofuels can be produced from many feedstocks

Advanced liquid biofuels from lignocellulosic feedstocks

can compete by 2030-40 at expected oil and CO2 prices.

2

Energy Use by Transport Mode (2015)

3

Energy Intensity of Transport Modes

4

Already Electric Transport Is Gaining Ground

5

Electric Vehicles Rapidly Expanding

6

Demand Driven by Blending – How Long?

7

Number of

Countries Range of

Mandates Comments

Africa 11 2% - 20% Mostly for bioethanol, ranging

from 2% in South Africa to 20% in

Malawi, many countries at 10%.

Americas 14 2% - 27% Canada and USA policies based

on fuel carbon intensity and

volumes, not blending mandates.

Asia 9 1% - 20%

Range from 1% biodiesel in

Taiwan to 20% in Indonesia.

Europe 22 3% - 10% Most have blending mandates,

others have carbon intensity

targets or carbon taxes.

Oceania 2 2% - 10% Australian mandates are at the

state level, not national.

A Gradual Generational Shift

• REmap Analysis for 2030

Biofuels in transport should quadruple to 12 EJ in 2030,

with nearly 75% (9 EJ) from conventional sources (so a

quarter of biofuel supply could be “second generation”).

• REmap Decarbonisation Analysis for 2050

Biofuels in transport should grow 8-fold to 25 EJ in 2050,

with nearly 50% (12 EJ) from conventional sources (so

half the biofuel supply could be “second generation”).

8

Projected Renewable Energy in 2050

9

RE Transport Vision 2050

• Around 30% of transport energy demend is electric.

1.3 billion electric vehicles in stock on the road.

50 million electric delivery trucks sold 2015-2050

High-speed electric trains for long-distance travel

Self-driving EV taxis, buses, delivery vans

• Ten-fold increase in liquid and gaseous biofuels

1,000 billion litres of liquid biofuels

…of which 500 billion litres advanced biofuels

…of which 300 billion liters advanced aviation fuel

200 billion cubic metres of biogas

10

GHG Emissions for Different Biofuels

11

Reduced Air Pollution in Transport by 2030

12

Trends and Data Supporting the Projections

• Renewable Power to Electrify Road Vehicles,

Costs of renewable electricity have sharply declined.

Renewable generating capacity is rapidly increasing.

Uptake of electric vehicles is accelerating.

• Liquid Biofuels for Aviation and Marine Shipping

RD&D is creating cost-competitive options.

(However, RD&D investment needs to pick up.)

There is a great deal of sustainable bioenergy potential.

13

Falling Costs of Renewable Electricity

14

Expanding Renewable Electric Generation

15

Advanced Liquid Biofuels – Cost Comparison

16

Advanced Biofuels – Investment Stagnating

17

Pockets of Sustainable Bioenergy

• Agriculture

Residues associated with growing food production

Higher yields on cropland (sustainable intensification)

Efficient livestock husbandry: freeing up pastureland

Reduced food losses and waste: freeing up farmland

• Forestry

Residues (complementary fellings on timberland)

Higher yields in planted forests (better management)

Afforestation of degraded forest and marginal lands

18

Yield Gap: Illustrated by Maize

19

Ratio of Actual to Potential Yield for Maize (Year 2000)

Source: Global Agro-Ecological Zones

Pastureland (3.4 billion ha)

Cropland (1.5 billion ha)

Agricultural Land (Billion Hectares)

0

% D

ieta

ry p

rote

in

20

40

60

80

100

0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

% H

arv

este

d C

rop

s

20

40

60

80

100 1.4 billion ha prime & good

1.5 billion ha marginal & very

Could possibly grow some energy crops adapted to saline or desert conditions

70 million ha more for food

by 2050 (FAO) Could be more suitable for energy crops than food crops

Pastureland Available Globally for Biofuel Crops

Best Practice Losses by Food Chain Stage

21

Food Type Agricultural

Production

Postharvest

Handling &

Storage

Processing

and

Packaging

Distribution:

Supermarket

Retail

Consumption

Cereals 2% 2% 3.5% 2% 1%

Roots &

Tubers

6% 7% 10% 3% 2%

Oilseeds &

Pulses

6% 0% 5% 1% 1%

Fruits &

Vegetables

10% 4% 2% 8% 5%

Meat 2.9% 0.2% 5% 4% 2%

Milk 3.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%

Degraded Landscape Restoration

22

Potential Land for Solid Biomass

• Closing the Yield Gap: 550 M ha

• Better Use of Pasture Land: 950 M ha

• Reduced Food Chain Losses: 270 M ha

• Landscape Restoration: 350 M ha

• TOTAL: OVER 2 BILLION HECTARES, 300 EJ

23

Farm and Forest Residues

• Farm Residues (46-95 EJ of bioenergy)

• Forest Management (27 EJ of bioenergy)

• Forest Residues and Waste (15-30 EJ of bioenergy)

• Modern Cookstoves (8-17 EJ of bioenergy conserved)

24

How Large Is the Biofuel Potential?

25

Category

Primary

Biomass

Energy

Content

End Use Bioenergy

with 1st/3rd

Generation Biofuel

or Combined Heat

and Power

(80% Efficiency)

End Use

Bioenergy with

2d Generation

Biofuel

Conversion

(40% Efficiency)

REMAP 2030

Assumptions

for Primary

Biomass

Energy

(Reference)

Agricultural Residues 46 - 95 EJ 36 - 76 EJ 18 - 38 EJ 19 - 48 EJ

Cultivating Forests 83 - 141 EJ 66 - 112 EJ 33 - 56 EJ 41 - 58 EJ

Subtotal A 128 - 236 EJ 102 – 188 EJ 51 – 94 EJ 60 –106 EJ

Higher Crop Yields 47 - 88 EJ 37 - 70 EJ 19 - 35 EJ 0 EJ

Pasture Land 71 - 142 EJ 57 - 114 EJ 28 - 57 EJ 33 - 39 EJ

Reduced Food Waste 40 - 83 EJ 32 - 66 EJ 16 - 33 EJ 18 EJ

Subtotal B 159 – 313 EJ 126 – 250 EJ 63 – 125 EJ 51 – 57 EJ

Total 287 - 549 EJ 228 - 438 EJ 114-219 EJ 112-162 EJ

26

Bioenergy for Sustainable Development

IRENA – International Renewable Energy Agency

http://www.irena.org/

IEA Bioenergy – International Energy Agency

Technology Collaboration Programme on Bioenergy

http://www.ieabioenergy.com/

FAO – Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN

http://www.fao.org/