comftf07causal analysis rev 03-12-06
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Cause/Effect
Most Important of Logical Relationships
We want to know not only what happens but why
it happens.
We want to know why national debt cant be
brought under control.
We want to know why we have unemployment.
We want to know why our cities decay from theinside out.
We want to know the effects of using pesticides.
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Cause/Effect
. We want to know the cause of our young people takingLSD and Crack..
We want to know the short and long range effects of theiracquired habit.
We want to know why gang violence is on the increasein the affluent suburbs.
GM, Ford, and Chrysler want to know why the Japaneseand German car manufacturers are beating the pants off
from them. Divorced people want to know why their marriages fell
apart.
.
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Cause/Effect
Causal reasoning may move in either
direction from the cause to the effect or the
effect to the cause.
As a matter of fact, the effect may become
another cause.
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Cause /Effect Work piles up. I feel under stress because of the work piling up.
I sip three glasses of Vodka to relieve stress.
I become mellow and allow work to pile up.
I feel anxiety because while I became inebriatedmore work piled up.
I down myself for letting work pile up.
I feel guilty in so doing. The guilt leads to stress.
I sip three glasses of Vodka to relive stress..
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Cause/Effect
Dr. Albert Ellis in his bookOvercomingProcrastination illustrates how an effect can becomea further cause:
Consider Debbies problem of doing the dishes:
Activating Event- observing dirty dishes in thesink.
Beliefs- How annoying to clean them, but Idbetter. (rational).
I cant stand this mess. It looks too tough to tackle.(irrational)
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Cause/Effect
Consequence- frustration.(rational)
Reaction- do the dishes.(rational)
or--avoid doing the dishes. (irrational)(Ellis, Overcoming Procrastination, p29-
30)
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Cause/Effect
Thirteen-year-old Paul keeps thinking he would like to
clean up part of the cellar at his parents house in order to
make a game room.
He has contemplated this for the past three years and,rather than getting started, he tries not to think about the
long-delayed project because when he reminds himself to
do some work he lambasts himself for the time he
already has wasted. (Ellis, Overcoming Procrastination,
P.9)
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Cause/Effect
. The next portion of this lesson we will
stress terminology, stages in causal
reasoning, and a list of problems that
frequently occur in causal analysis.
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Cause/ Effect
We can classify causes as Necessary,Sufficient, orContributory .
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Cause/Effect
Necessary
Sufficient
Contributory
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Cause/Effect
Necessary Causes
The necessary cause must be present in order for the effect tooccur.
For example, the Flu virus must be present in order for the effect
(the disease) to occur. A person may make himself more susceptible by staying up until
4:00 AM.
A person may make himself more susceptible by a haphazarddiet of junk food.
A person may make himself more susceptible by walkingaround in the rain with no shoes.
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Cause/Effect
A person may make himself more susceptibleby sitting in a draft.
But we can consider none of these items as thenecessary cause of the Flu. The Flu Bug has to
attack before the willfully derelict individual getsthe Flu.
Example: Necessary Cause: A spark is necessary toignite a gasoline engine.
The HIV virus must be present for AIDS to occur.
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Cause/Effect
A Sufficient Cause has the capability of
producing an effect unaided. More than one
sufficient cause may produce the same effect.Example: A cough can be produced by a cold
virus, pneumonia, emphysema, lung cancer,
tuberculosis, an abscess on the larynx, smog,
tobacco juice, Tabasco sauce,or chalk dust.
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Cause/Effect
: A dead battery can prevent a car from
starting, but so can a faulty spark-plug,
water in the distributor, or no gasoline.
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Cause/Effect
Personal Example
Fuel Filter
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Cause/Effect
Sufficient Causes
Fuel Filter
Fuel Pump
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Cause/Effect
Sufficient Causes:
Fuel Filter
Fuel Pump
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Cause/Effect
Sufficient Causes:
Fuel Filter
Fuel PumpCarburetor
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Cause/Effect
Sufficient Causes:
Fuel Filter
Fuel PumpCarburetor
Water in Gas Tank
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Cause/Effect
Contributory Causes
A contributory cause can help to produce an effect, butcannot do so by itself.
Example: Running through a red light may cause an
accident. Example: Skipping class may cause a failing grade when
linked with other causes.
Example: Smoking may contribute to lung cancer, but it is
not necessarily the major cause or the sole cause.( Thebody can withstand remarkable abuse).
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Cause/Effect
Stages in Causal Reasoning
James Mc Crimmon has identified three stages in causalreasoning:
1. Whatever the cause, it must exist in the situation
and must be sufficient to produce the effect. This step requires the investigator to identify all of the
possible causes, isolating which of the possible causescould be sufficient to produce the effect.
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Cause/Effect
Example: The cold water in the Dorm shower
could be caused from:
a defective fuse
power company failure
burned out element
excessive use of shower by room mate
Any one of these (with the possible exception ofthe last one) could bring about the effect unaided.
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Cause/Effect
2. If a sufficient cause is eliminated from thesituation, the effect will be eliminated unless thereare other causes. If the effect ceases when we remove
the possible cause, the possible cause is the cause. Example: If we suspect that a faulty bulb is the cause
for no light, we simply make a substitution-with a newbulb. If it is the cause we look no further , not ruling out
the possibility that the original bulb may only be acontributory cause.
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Cause/Effect
3. If the cause is introduced into a similar situation,it should bring about a similar effect.
Example: If we suspect a faulty battery, fuse, or bulb, we
could insert one into a different socket or receptaclewhere one has been operating. If the battery or fusedoesnt work, or the light doesnt turn on, we reject ourhypothesis. But if the fuse or battery work or thelightbulb turns on, we have additional support for our
belief in the original hypothesis.
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Cause/Effect
Errors in Causal Reasoning
Louise Rohrabacher has identified ten
separate errors in causal reasoning:
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Cause/Effect
1. Mistaking a time connection for a
causal one.
This error has sometimes been referred to as
thePost Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc
fallacy, translated into English as After
this , therefore because of this.
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Cause/Effect
Superstitions are based upon this fallacy:
After I touched the toad, I got warts.
An owl hooted before Uncle Marvins death. An
owl hooting will somehow bring about death. Labor Day, because it always occurs before the
opening of school must somehow cause the opening of
school.
The 9:00 class occurs before the 10:00 class. The9:00 class must cause the 10:00 class.
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Cause/Effect
I dont want to hold hands with any girl.
When Travis held Cindys hand, he
flunked his spelling test.
After Hoover was elected, we had a
Depression. Hoover caused the Depression.
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Cause/Effect
2. Mistaking for a cause things that
coincidentally happen at the same time- also
known as the concurrent fallacy.
If two things are concurrent ( take place at thesame time), It does not mean that they are related.
Example: If the Southern Baptist Convention and
the National Gay Coalition hold their meetings inthe same city or perhaps the same hotel, we cannot
assume that the two events must be related.
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Cause/Effect
Example: Colored leaves in the fall arebelieved to be caused by the frost.
Some things are genuinely coincidentalsuch as the incident in which a young ladyaccused a man of following her when
actually they were going in the samedirection at the same time for a totallyunrelated reason.
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Cause/Effect
3. Beware of thesingle cause fallacy.We cannot settle for one single cause if
there are more. Most effects stem from multiple causes
rather than just one. Remember, the last
straw did not break the camels back byitself. The single cause fallacy results fromjumping to conclusions.
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Cause/Effect
Example: A motorist hears someone honking at
him. He jumps to the conclusion that they want
him to go faster. Other reasons the other motorist
may be honking could include: His transmission may be coming loose
He may be honking because he recognizes him
He may have a bumper sticker which reads,Honk if you love Jesus.
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Cause/Effect
Many newspaper headlines reveal the
single cause fallacy:
Sex education causes promiscuity.
Television destroys a students capacity
to read.
Comic books cause juvenile
delinquency.
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Cause/Effect
James Mc Crimmon suggests that attributing racial
strife to differences in skin color ignores the other
social and economic causes.
Randal Decker suggests that the writer whobrings his old prejudices to the task of causal
analysis or fails to see the probability of multiple
causes or effects is certain to destroy his analysis,
making it so superficial it becomes worthless.
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Cause/Effect
Be sure to distinguish between immediate
and remote causes.
Example: Instructor Why are you here at Texas
College? Student: Because my father married my mother.
This line of reasoning starts back too far. We needto look at the immediate rather than the remote
causes.
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Cause/Effect
Example: Why did Jeffrey Dhamer slay thoseyoung boys and have homosexual relations withthem?
Well, it all started with Cain and Abel. or It allstarted when Lucifer decided to rebel againstGod.
Why is Elizabeth Taylors marriage on the rocks?
It all started in the Garden of Eden when Evedecided to eat the forbidden fruit.
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Cause/Effect
Closing of Canning Factory
Filthy rag last straw
Symbol managements refusal to replacepipes and equipment
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Cause/Effect
Ever pervasive desire to make profit
Higher production costs
Labor costs
Weather factors
Economic well-being of nation.
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Cause/Effect
In 1991, Iraqi Foreign Minister Teriq Azizinsisted that Iraq invaded Kuwait because Israeloccupied the West Bank.
Such tangential remote excuses for suchbizarre behavior doesnt even qualify as arationalization.
represents a tortured extremely remote cause.
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Cause/Effect
5. Be sure the cause has the capacity to produce the effect.
Louise Rohrabacher describes an incident in which aperson leaves a big juicy beef steak on the table. When hereturned, the steak was gone. If a huge Great Dane or Black
Labrador were left in the house, and perhaps furthercircumstantial evidence appeared such as red bloody juicedripping from the muzzle, distended ribs on the dog, asheepish look on the dogs face, etc., we have a primesuspect. A lone kitten asleep in the corner would be
exonerated.
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Cause/Effect
Back in 1349, the Black Death wiped
out 2/3 of Europes population. The Jews
were blamed for poisoning the wells. There
were not that many Jews in all of Europe toaccomplish such a task.
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Cause/Effect
A story circulated about a man who wentdown in a mine with a hammer and saw.The mine later collapsed and the man was
blamed. It was later determined that thewidth of the beams and the sturdiness of thestructure made it impossible for the man toinflict that much damage and eventually
another explanation was sought.
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Cause/Effect
Proponents of Womens Suffrage felt that the votewould cure societys ills and bring equality for all.
Proponents of the ERA amendment naivelyassume the same thing. The ERA will probably beas effective at promoting equality as the balanced
budget amendment will bring our deficit undercontrol.
The O.E.O. did not do away with poverty.
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Cause/Effect
The crime bill, replete with midnight basketballand handicrafts will not do away with gangviolence.
Economic ills cannot be treated until thecomplexity of the issue is addressed and the greedfactor of human nature is checked.
The argument that productivity itself will improve
the economy fails to take into account thatproductivity by itself will not bring down pricesunless companies are willing to turn out more forless profit.
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Cause/Effect
7. Allow for causes that may nullify predicted
effects.
Example: The increase in the minimum wage is a
short sighted view some labor leaders see as asolution. But wage increases lead to higher prices to
pay for the wage increases-leading to another
unfortunate effect -a higher cost of living- refueling
a demand for another wage increase.
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Cause/Effect
Example: When the federal government
closed down Fort Ord and the San Diego
Shipyard, it did so as an economy move,
not realizing that depressing the localeconomy created a greater demand for
disaster relief, wiping out all the economic
gains.
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Cause/Effect
Example: People feel more empowered
if they are given more credit,
but the more credit one has, the more the
bank reckons the liabilities potential.
If you can borrow $50,000 on your
signature, you can also owe the bank
$50,000 on your signature.
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Cause/Effect
Example: Governmental subsidies can prop
up prices artificially, but can weaken
companys resolve to compete in the world
market.
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Cause/Effect
8. Avoid predicting contradictory effects.
Example: Sometimes it is impossible for two
predicted effects to exist side by side. Louise Rohrabacher once used the example of a
politician who promised to lower taxes, increase
public works, increase military spending and
social programs, and balance. the budget.
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Cause/Effect
Example: Hillary Clintons recent health
care package which would have
commandeered 1/7 of the national
economy would cost the average tax payermore, and would not constitute free health
care at all.
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Cause/Effect
9. Do not mistake the cause for the effect
or the effect for the cause.
Example: Louise Rohrabacher suggests
that Medieval philosophers tried to
substantiate the goodness of God because
He made a great river run through every
city.
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Cause/Effect
Example: We hear about the old farmer
who says, If Id Known I was going to
have such nice children I would have
picked a better mother for em. (notrealizing that the mother was a contributory
cause of his nice children.)
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Cause/Effect
Example: We hear the caution, Dont eat
too much sugar. You will get diabetes.
Actually , sugar consumption is a symptom,
not a cause of diabetes.
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Cause/Effect
Example: When people think that a high
fever causes the Flu, they will think that
putting ice packs on their forehead will
actually cure the Flu.
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Cause/Effect
Example: When a motorist blames a cars
inefficiency on the knocking of the engine,
he might be tempted to muffle the sound,
masking the real problem.
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Cause/Effect
Example: The driver blames a failing
brake or road conditions for his own
carelessness.
Example: The tailgater blames the car in
front of him for stopping abruptly.
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Cause/Effect
Example: The musician blames a faulty
spit valve or too much resin on the bow or
bad action on the piano keys.(Instead of his
own lack of practice.)
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Cause/Effect
Example: The student who procrastinates
on his research paper blames a computer
failure or the perennial, the dog peed on
it excuse for his own laziness.
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Cause/Effect
Example: We hear the old story of the man
who goes into the radio station for a job interview.
Man wh wh wh where ah ah ah ah ah are th
th th in in in inter views fo fo fo for th th th the a
a a an n n n n nounce er j j j j job
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Cause/Effect
Receptionist: Go down the hall and turn to
the right at the first door.
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Cause/Effect
After a few minutes the man returned down
the hall , sighing, j j j j ju ju ju jus just a a
a as as as I I I I th th th th thought s s s s s same o
o o old s s s story. Th th th th they j j j j just wowo wo wo wont h h h hi hi hire a a an an any C C
C C C Ca Ca Ca Catholics.
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