college of arts & sciences: 21 departments and schools 13 interdisciplinary programs

College of Arts & Sciences:

21 departments and schools13 interdisciplinary programs

2013-14 Fact Book:

7160 UG majors1360 G students

340,000 UG SCH (60% of UTK total)

460 T/TT faculty members190 non-TT faculty members

My duties: Enrollment management, NTTF funding, curriculum, and a few other things

Chemistry:

Studying matter and its transformations at the molecular level . . .

Suri and Glorius, Org. Synth. (2014)

Efficiency in chemical synthesis:

Minimize cost of starting materials?Minimize number of steps?Minimize time to completion?

Suri and Glorius, Org. Synth. (2014)

Efficiency in chemical synthesis:

Minimize cost of starting materials?Minimize number of steps?Minimize time to completion?

Suri and Glorius, Org. Synth. (2014)

Data!

Efficiency in chemical synthesis:

Minimize cost of starting materials?Minimize number of steps?Minimize time to completion?

As chemistry became a quantitative disci-pline, chemists began to understand that some efforts were unproductive . . .

LeadGold

Data!

Efficiency in chemical synthesis:

Minimize cost of starting materials?Minimize number of steps?Minimize time to completion?

As chemistry became a quantitative disci-pline, chemists began to understand that some efforts were unproductive . . .

LeadGold

Wait a minute! Is this CHEM 120 or the ALR?

Data!

First-timefreshmen

Transferstudents

$$$

+

+

Well-educated college

graduates prepared

to be responsible

global citizens

First-timefreshmen

Transferstudents

$$$

+

+

Well-educated college

graduates prepared

to be responsible

global citizens

External stakeholders’

view

First-timefreshmen

Transferstudents

$$$

+

+

Well-educated college

graduates prepared

to be responsible

global citizens

CHEM 120

MATH141

HIST261

CHEM369

ENGL118

MATH113

HIST242

ARTA342

PHIL120

MATH117

HIST373

FREN223

MUCO120

MATH141

GEOG131

SPAN300

Associate dean’s view

First-timefreshmen

Transferstudents

$$$

+

+

Well-educated college

graduates prepared

to be responsible

global citizens

CHEM 120

MATH141

HIST261

CHEM369

ENGL118

MATH113

HIST242

ARTA342

PHIL120

MATH117

HIST373

FREN223

MUCO120

MATH141

GEOG131

SPAN300

consumables

classrooms

lab rooms

instructors

GTAs

timesof day

First-timefreshmen

Transferstudents

$$$

+

+

Well-educated college

graduates prepared

to be responsible

global citizens

CHEM 120

MATH141

HIST261

CHEM369

ENGL118

MATH113

HIST242

ARTA342

PHIL120

MATH117

HIST373

FREN223

MUCO120

MATH141

GEOG131

SPAN300

consumables

classrooms

instructors

GTAs

timesof day

How to measure efficiency? Implies a choiceof quantitative metric(s). . .

Cost per student credit hour?

Mean time to degree?

First-year retention rate?

Mean class size?

Mean fill rate of classrooms?

Number of repeated courses?

lab rooms

First-timefreshmen

Transferstudents

$$$

+

+

CHEM 120

MATH141

HIST261

CHEM369

ENGL118

MATH113

HIST242

ARTA342

PHIL120

MATH117

HIST373

FREN223

MUCO120

MATH141

GEOG131

SPAN300

consumables

classrooms

instructors

GTAs

timesof day

But also must measure effectiveness!

Learning outcomes assessment

Retention and graduation rates

Undergraduate research & creative activity

Early contact with TT faculty

Study abroad, service learning, etc.

Other measures?

Well-educated college

graduates prepared

to be responsible

global citizens

lab rooms

Multiple claims on resources, and a diverse set of performance metrics:

Data

Priorities

Policies

College of Arts & Sciences:

21 departments and schools13 interdisciplinary programs

2013-14 Fact Book:

7160 UG majors1360 G students

340,000 UG SCH (60% of UTK total)

460 T/TT faculty members190 non-TT faculty members

Large and decentralized. So as a chemist,I give in to my reductionist tendencies . . .

Courses taken by first-time first-year students:

30 courses in Arts & Sciences account for 2/3 of all Fall semester student credit hours attempted by first-time first-year students.

ENGL 101

PSYC 110

CHEM 120

BIOL 101

MATH 119

MATH 141

BIOL 130 . . .

Courses taken by first-time first-year students:

30 courses in Arts & Sciences account for 2/3 of all Fall semester student credit hours attempted by first-time first-year students.

ENGL 101

PSYC 110

CHEM 120

BIOL 101

MATH 119

MATH 141

BIOL 130 . . .

How can we accommodatean increase in the size ofthe first-year class from4270 to 4700?

(a 10.1% increase)

The problem is still too big. Look at 100-level MATH courses taken by first-time first-year students.

Fall 2013:

12 courses

3370 FT FY students (79% of FT FY class)

6340 enrollments (all students)

Gateway courses for many majors

More manageable . . .

Simplest possible approach: Assume the FT FY enrollments in each class will increase by 10.1%.

Fall 2013, MATH 113 = 336 FT FY students

320 other students

Fall 2014, MATH 113 prediction:

374 FT FY students320 other students

694 total

Simplest possible approach: Assume the FT FY enrollments in each class will increase by 10.1%.

Fall 2013, MATH 113 = 336 FT FY students

320 other students

Fall 2014, MATH 113 prediction:

374 FT FY students320 other students

Fall 2014, MATH 113 actual:

377 FT FY students346 other students

694 total

723 total

Hmmm . . . Try again?

Fall 2013, MATH 115 = 219 FT FY students

512 other students

Fall 2014, MATH 115 prediction:

244 FT FY students512 other students

756 total

Hmmm . . . Try again?

Fall 2013, MATH 115 = 219 FT FY students

512 other students

Fall 2014, MATH 115 prediction:

244 FT FY students512 other students

Fall 2014, MATH 115 actual:

202 FT FY students506 other students

756 total

708 total

At the course level, predictions range from 8% too low for some courses to 9% too high for other courses . . .

But the approach predicts the total number of students enrolled in Fall 2014 100-level MATH courses to better than 1%!

Why does this simple approach fail at the course level?

At the course level, predictions range from 8% too low for some courses to 9% too high for other courses . . .

But the approach predicts the total number of students enrolled in Fall 2014 100-level MATH courses to better than 1%!

Why does this simple approach fail at the course level?

Hidden assumption: Course capacities in Fall 2013 were infinite, so enrollments were a perfect reflection of instructional demand.

Data sources used:

1) FT FY enrollments from Fall 2013

2) Size of Fall 2013 FT FY class

3) Projected size of Fall 2014 FT FY class

Other relevant data sources might include:

1) Math ACT scores of FT FY students

2) Math AP scores of FT FY students

3) Waiting lists from Fall 2013

4) Majors selected by FT FY students

Would these additional data sources help?

Waiting lists: A student seeking a Social Sciences General Education course might put herself on the waiting list for both POLS 101 and PSYC 110, intending to take the first course in which she can find a seat.

If no seats open up in either class, the waiting lists will register “excess demand”.

Would these additional data sources help?

Choice of major: Students’ major choices are rather fluid.

For example, the Fall 2013 entering class had

158 declared psychology majors in May

197 declared psychology majors in August

UTK typically grants 400 to 450 psychology B.A. degrees each year.

Take home message: Data-driven enrollment management is still in its infancy.

We can take solace in this observation from the EAB pre-retreat reading (p. 3):

“Many administrators held out hope for ‘a magic equation’ that would … serve as the basis for algorithms for setting optimal resource allocations … Unfortunately we did not discover such a magic equation.”

Thanks to:

Pat Anthony

Jason Smethers

Nik Brodskiy

Nik Brodskiy

Thanks again for the projections you made for Fall 2014. It worked very well.  I would like to adjust the Spring 2015 schedule. Could you please let me know the projections for Math enrollments for the spring semester?