climatechangein galicia (nw spain): observations and ... · climate system climate is an...

Climate change in Galicia (NW Spain): Observations

and projections for the XXIth Century

Juan José Taboada Hidalgo

DEFINITIONS

Climate: Statistical description in

terms of average and variability of the

relevant measurements (rain,

temperature, wind …).

xan feb mar abr mai xuñ xull ago set out nov dec

itació

precipitación Tmin Tmax

Weather: Specific conditions of the atmosphere in a given time and

moment. It is expressed with parametres such as clouds, probability of rain,

temperature, humidity ….

CLIMATE SYSTEM

Climate is an interactive system. It has 5 main components: Atmosphere, Hydrosphere, Cryosphere, earth surface and biosphere.

NATURAL VARIABILY OF CLIMATE

•Continental drift

• Terrestrial orbit variation: Milankovich cycles

• Solar activity variations

•Volcanic activity

NATURAL VARIABILITY

• The oxygen isotope ratio obtained from ice cores over the Antartic plateau show 4 glacial and interglacial periods over the past 400.000 years.

Ciclos de Milankovitch

NATURAL VARIABILITY

Human beings could not influence of variables such as solar activity or earth orbit. Nevertheless we have an influence on internal variables such as atmospheric composition or earth surface.

ANTHROPOGENIc FORCING

During the last decades an increase in greenhouse gases concentration has been produced.

Moreover at a global scale a land use change has been done due to:

•Increasing urbanization.

•Deforestation.

•Land use for agriculture.

GREENHOUSE EFFECT

Greenhouse effect is a natural process that takes place in the atmosphere, due to the presence of wavter vapour, CO2 and other chemical species. This natural effect maintains the earth with a temperature around 30ºC above the temperature of the earth without the atmosphere.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)

• The organization was created in 1989, by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) as an effort by the United Nations to provide the governments of the world with a clear scientific view of what is happening to the world’s climate.

• It reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change.

Historical evolution of the results of the IPCC

FAR (1990) Emissions resulting from humanactivities are substantially increasingatmospheric concentration of greenhousegases

SAR (1995) The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate

TAR (2001) There is new and stronger evidence thatmost of the warming observed over thelast years is attributable to humanactivities

AR4(2007) It is highly likely (> 95%) that thewarming observed during the past half-century cannot be explained withoutexternal influences.

Sea level changes

Precipitations do not show a clear tendency

Siglo XX

1979-2005

And, what about Galicia…????

Objectives• In 2007, the Regional Government Department for the

Environment and Sustainable Development promoted aresearch project entitled “Analysis of the Evidence andImpacts of Climate Change in Galicia (CLIGAL)”.

• The project follows the line of IPCC.

• http://www.siam-cma.org/cligal/

• Main areas: – Climate evolution and climatological scenarios.

– Terrestrial ecosystems

– Marine pelagical ecosystems

– Litoral ecosystems

– Health

– Economy

Participants in the CLIGAL project

• Consellería de Medio Ambiente (Lourizán y MeteoGalicia)• Consellería de Pesca e Asuntos Marítimos. CIMA• CETMAR• Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO)• Instituto Investigaciones Marinas e Inst. Invest. Agrobiológicas

(CSIC)• Universidade da Coruña• Universidade de Santiago de Compostela• Universidade de Vigo

http://www.siam-cma.org/cligal/

Observations – Annual temperature

Increase 0.18 ºC / decade

Temperatura media anual

Non homogeneous along the

period:

More increase since 1972:

0.36ºC/decade

Máximum: Increase of 0.21 ºC / decade

Mínimum: Increase of 0.15 ºC / decade

Max: Increase of 0.36 ºC / decade

Min: Increase of 0.17 ºC / decade

Increase in spring more related with maximum temperatures

Increase of summer is more homogeneous. The increase in minimum

temperatures is more relevant than in the rest of the year.

Max: Increase of 0.24 ºC / decade

Min: Increase of 0.28 ºC / decade

The main increases take place in spring and summer

Observations – Annual temperature

Increase in spring (b=0.11**)

Increase in summer (b=0.10*)

HOT DAYS(temperatura máxima > p95)

Increase in spring (b=0.08*)

Increase in summer (b=0.18***)

HOT NIGTHS

(temperatura mínima > p95)

Observations – Extreme temperature

Decrease all along the year

Winter (b=-0.13**)

Spring (b=-0.16***)

Summer (b=-0.12**)

Autumn (b=-0.11)

COLD DAYS(temperatura máxima < p5)

COLD NIGHTS(temperatura mínima < p5)

Decrease in autumn (b=-0.08*)

Descenso en VERÁN (b=0.15**)

Observations – Extreme temperature

Trends on temperature for the whole Iberian Peninsula

3640 43

223228

340349

No significant trend for annual precipitation

Observed trends at a monthly level(decrease in february, increase in october)

Possible change in distribution of

rain along the yearTrends observed for drougth index (SPI)(increase in drught in february-march)

Observations – Precipitation

Frecuencia de precipitación extrema - OTOÑO

Frecuencia de precipitación extremas - PRIMAVERA

Increase of extreme precipitation

(> p95) in autumn

Decrease of extreme precipitation

(> p95) in spring

Increase of southwestern

situations

Observations – Extreme Precipitation

S S T 42ºN 10ºWy = 0.0131x - 10.489

R 2 = 0.6571

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020Año

S S T_ANUAL S S T_AB R -S E PS S T_OC T-MAR

T air 42ºN 11ºW y = 0.0105x - 5.4925

R 2 = 0.4772

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020Año

AT_ANUAL AT_AB R -S E PAT_OC T-MAR

Air Temperature (T air) and sea temperature (SST) COADS 42ºN 10ºW

Statistically significant increase of

More increase during upwelling

season.

The increase of SST is around

0.1ºC/decade

Sea Level trend(1943- )

Sea level measured at

Coruña and Vigo harbours

since 1943 have increase

ata a rate 2.68 mm/year in

Vigo and 1.386 mm/year in

Coruña

The whole trend, taking into

account problems with

measurements of La Coruña

harbour is 2.254 mm/year

Estación Mareográfica Coruña (IEO)

niveles medios mensuales

tendencia= 1.386 mm/año

y = 0.1155x - 13.73

R2 = 0.0807-400

alía n

ivel m

Estación Mareográfica Vigo (IEO)

niveles medios mensuales

tendencia= 2.68 mm/año

y = 0,2238x + 2445,4

R2 = 0,2291

alía n

ivel m

Some Consequences

• Delay in the first frost

• Early arrive of last frost

• Increase of the period without frost:

• Lavacolla : 52 days

• Lugo: 11 days

• Ourense: 38 days

Primeira Xeada

Última Xeada

LAVACOLLA

Evidences of climate changeFrost

IMPACTOS DO CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO

PREVISTOS PARA FINAIS DO SÉCULO XXIZona libre de xeadas

VINE-GROWINGEvolución das fenofases da Vitis vinifera: since 1970 Harvest is early by 15 days

1970-1971 1980-1981 1990-1991 2000-2001

GUILLAREI

FLORACIÓN

MADURACIÓN

RECOLECCIÓN

CAIDA DE LA HOJA

1970-1971 1980-1981 1990-1991 2000-2001

SALCEDO

FLORACIÓNMADURACIÓNRECOLECCIÓNCAIDA DE LA HOJALineal (FLORACIÓN)

Floración: 19 días en 30 anos

Maduración: 18 días en 30 anos

Colleita: 17 días en 30 anos

Caida da folla: sen cambio aparente

Floración: 18 días en 30 anos

Maduración: 18 días en 30 anos

Colleita: 15 días en 30 anos

Caida da folla: sen cambio aparente

Cambios nas fenofases da Vide (Vitis vinifera) desde 1970

Estación Fenofase Día Xuliano Data Anos Observados REGRESIÓN

fenolóxica analizada promedio promedio Nº Anos Desde Ata Pendente(1)

SALCEDO FLORACIÓN 163 11-jun 28 1970 2000 -0.624 -4.408 0.000*

MADURACIÓN 266 22-sep 25 1970 2000 -0.493 -2.991 0.007*

RECOLECCIÓN 271 27-sep 23 1970 2001 -0.605 -3.896 0.001*

CAIDA DE LA HOJA 319 14-nov 25 1970 2000 -0.335 -0.335 0.741**

GUILLAREI FLORACIÓN 160 08-jun 29 1970 2000 -0.656 -4.447 0.000*

MADURACIÓN 271 27-sep 26 1970 2001 -0.621 -4.503 0.000*

RECOLECCIÓN 271 27-sep 25 1970 2001 -0.598 -3.78 0.001*

CAIDA DE LA HOJA 323 18-nov 26 1970 2000 -0.022 -0.174 0.864**

(1)Pendentes en días/ano.(2)Valores dados como unha distribución t de Student.

* Valores con un 95% de probabilidade de significancia.

** Valores sen cambio aparente (t entre +1 y -1).

PHENOLOGY: SWALLOW

1970-1971 1980-1981 1990-1991 2000-2001

GUILLAREI

CHEGADA

EMIGRACIÓN

1970-1971 1980-1981 1990-1991 2000-2001

SALCEDO

CHEGADA

EMIGRACIÓN

Evolución da chegada e emigración das Anduriñas (Hirundo rustica) desde 1970

Cambios na chegada e emigracion da Anduriñas común (Hirundo rustica) desde 1970

Estación Fenofase Día Xuliano Data Anos Observados REGRESIÓN

fenolóxica analizada promedio promedio Nº Anos Desde Ata Pendente(1)

GUILLAREI CHEGADA 81 21-mar 30 1970 2001 -0.493 -2.192 0.037*

EMIGRACIÓN 259 15-sep 27 1970 2001 0.828 4.98 0.000*

SALCEDO CHEGADA 88 28-mar 30 1970 2001 -0.531 -1.826 0.079*

EMIGRACIÓN 254 10-sep 28 1970 2001 0.489 3.081 0.005*

(1)Pendentes en días/ano.(2)Valores dados como unha distribución t de Student.

* Valores con un 95% de probabilidade de significancia.

** Valores sen cambio aparente (t entre +1 y -1).

Arrival: 14 days earlier in 30 years

Migration: 24 días máis tarde en 30 years

Arrival: 15 days earlier in 30 years

Migration: 14 días later in 30 years

Consequences on forests

• Increase in Mediterranean conditions (change in landscape for the

future).

• Fire risk increasing in the last decades.

• Some local species become weaker.

And for the future…????

Projections for the XXIth century

We use models of the climate system to forecast the behaviour of the climate

system under GHG concentration increase.

We must take into account different scenarios and different models.

Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest

warming at high latitudes

Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average

in 2085 = 3.1oC

Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall

increase projected

Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

Regional Projections for the Iberian Peninsula

Average

projections

considering 16

general

circulation

models for A2

scenario

Winter

Spring

Summer

Autumn

Average

projections

considering 16

regional models

for A2 scenario

Projections – Temperature. Scenario A1B. Regional model 25km

Increase of 1.5 ºC in 2050.

More increase in summer

(2.5ºC) and spring (2ºC).

More increase in maximum than

in minimum temperatures.

Minimum temperatures increase

in summer.

Increase in the frequency of hot days and nights

Decrease in the frequency of cold days nad nights

Trend is more marked in

summer, specially in hot

Projections – Temperature. Scenario A1B. Regional model 25km

Decrease of precipitation in spring.

Increase in autumn and winter, with more episodes of extreme rainfall.

Increase of seasonality of rain.

Caveat: Precipitation is not well resolved in GCM´s. Therefore results for rainfall

do not have the same level of confidence.

At a sinoptical level models give a displacement to the north of the Hadley cell. As

a consequence the semi-permanent Azores high will be also displaced to the

north, with more drougths.

Projections – Precipitation. Scenario A1B. Regional model 25km

Conclusions

• The increase of greenhouse gases concentration is causing a climate change that has its relevance on Galicia. The main points of this change are:

– Increase of temperature.

– Increase of sea level.

– Changes in intraannual precipitation.

– Changes on ecosystems.

Conclusions• Changes will continue in the future, regardless

the strategy being adopted due to the persistence of GHG in the atmosphere.

• It is necessary to adopt the best combination of strategies of mitigation and adaptation from an economical, social and environmental viewpoints.

• The climate change problem is a problem concerning the transformation of the ways we generate and consume energy.

Thank you very much for

your attention

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