climate variability paper 3
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PHILIPPINE WOMENS UNIVERSITYMASTER OF SCIENCE IN ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
Subject: Participatory Rapid Appraisal with Climate ChangePaper #3
RICHARD J. DEVESFRUTO Submitted to: Prof Gia Ibay
Climate change is defined as a statistically significant change in climate
characteristics over a period of time (Winstanley, 2007). Significant change was
stressed in this definition because changes in the climate cannot be summarized by just
once instance or one catastrophe for that matter and say that it happened because of
climate change. The term “climate change” can only be utilized if the findings presented
wherein the variables are
characterized by a fairly smooth
continuous increase or decrease of
the average value during the period
of record (University Corporation
for Atmospheric Research, n.d.)
and measured from one 30-year
period to another, from one century
to another, or from one millennium
to another. Furthermore, there can’t be a climate change over less than a 30-year
period, as stressed by Winstansley (2007). Needless to say, we cannot simply draw a
conclusion about climate change based on a single observation, say outpours of heavy
rain during summer.
Climate variability on the other hand are variations of ups and downs in climatic
conditions on time scales of months, decades, centuries, and millennia. Relating to
climate change, climate variability provides the data wherein it shows month-to-month
or year-to-year fluctuations around the normal value. While climate change are
observed data over a period of time.
THE PRESENT STATE (CONDITION) OF ZAMBALES AND ITS VULNERABILITIESThe Zambales coastline is most famous for its sandy beaches and deep blue sea
teeming with coral reefs (Department of Tourism, 2009), the entire stretch of the province on the west is rimmed by the crystal clear water of vast China Sea. But despite of this, Zambales is not disaster-proof and may also be prone to the effects of climate change like flooding, landslides, and earthquakes. The following figures show the vulnerability of Zambales to such threats:
Figure 1
Figure 1. Proportion of households which reported an increase in the sea level in Olongapo City by barangay.
Figure 2 Risk to Projected Temperature
Increase. Although it shows that the
Projected Temperature Increase in
Zambales is Very Low, the surrounding
provinces have low to medium temperatures
and would still vary in the years to come.
(Figure courtesy of Center for Environmental
Geomatics - Manila Observatory)
Figure 3 Risk to Projected Rainfall. In
connection with Figure 4 which shows
the risk to typhoons, Figure 3 shows
that there is high to very high risk to
projected rainfall change in the province
of Zambales. (Figure courtesy of
Center for Environmental Geomatics -
Manila Observatory).
Figure 4 Risk to Typhoons. It shows that
Zambales has a high to very high risk to
typhoon which would or might lead to risk in
flooding as well. (Figure courtesy of Center
for Environmental Geomatics - Manila
Observatory).
Showing the vulnerability of this part of Zambales to climate changes like
increase in temperature or risk to projected rainfall only shows that whether we like it or
not, this will come anyhow. For Figure 3 which shows the risk to projected rainfall, will
cause more flooding as evident in the data shown in Figure 1 which shows the reported
increase in sea level in a particular place in Zambales which is Olongapo City. With the
changes currently happening – seasons that are shifting, temperatures increasing, and
sea levels rising, truly, the changes in our climate simply could not be ignored.
IMPACTS
1. On health Risks of heat-related illness would come into picture like heat exhaustion and heat
stroke as temperatures increase specially during summer. Heat stroke is a medical
condition wherein the body temperature reaches 40 degrees Celsius due to constant
heat exposure.
Scientists have related the deadly heat waves to climate change.
Aside from heat-related illness, climate change may increase the spread of infectious
diseases, mainly because warmer temperatures allow disease-carrying insects, animals
and microbes to survive in areas where they were once thwarted by cold weather.
Diseases and pests that were once limited to the tropics — such as mosquitoes that
carry malaria — may find hospitable conditions in new areas that were once too cold to
support them.
2. On country’s economy In a report by Abano (2014), reported that Asia, which includes the Philippines,
experienced the highest number of weather- and climate-related disasters in the world
during the period from 2000-2008 and suffered huge economic losses, accounting for
the second highest proportion (27.5%) of the total global economic loss.
Typhoons affect the Philippines economy significantly. Day to day business is
affected and investors avoid setting up business in the affected areas for fear of losing
their property and business assets.
3. Storms, hurricanes and tropical storms to become more intenseResearch indicates that climate change will cause tropical storms to become
more intense — lasting longer, unleashing stronger winds, and causing more damage to
coastal ecosystems and communities.
Scientists point to higher ocean temperatures as the main culprit, since tropical
storms get their energy from warm water. As sea surface temperatures rise, developing
storms will contain more energy.
At the same time, other factors such as rising sea levels, disappearing wetlands,
and increased coastal development threaten to intensify the damage caused by tropical
storms.
4. On agriculture and food securityThe impacts of climate change on food production and food security in the
Philippines will vary by region especially where drought or fewer rainfall is being
experienced like in some parts of Mindanao, so it expected to see a decline in food
productivity specially the production of rice and corn and other important agricultural
products.
5. On Human Settlements, Industry and InfrastructureClimate change will multiply and underscore the causes of rapid urbanization,
industrialization, and economic development. Climate change is expected to adversely
affect the undertaking of the government in its developmental efforts as it will increase
the pressure on the use natural resources and the environment.
-0-
In the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
which apparently leaked and set the Philippines and other parts of Asia in a bad
scenario, will most likely experience an alarming and devastating impacts as it presents
a growing threat of climate change and on how human and natural systems are
expected to address the widespread and consequential impacts.
With this, the Philippines should take drastic actions with the variabilities in the
climate coming out and being felt in the rest of the country in order to mitigate and
lessen the impacts these will cause.
Sources:
http://www.miseagrant.umich.edu/downloads/climate/11-703-Climate-Variability-and-Climate-Change.pdf
http://www.ucar.edu/learn/1_2_2_9t.htm
http://www.mb.com.ph/doh-warns-against-heat-stroke/
http://www.tourism.gov.ph/SitePages/InteractiveSitesPage.aspx?siteID=14
http://environews.ph/climate-change/leaked-un-climate-change-report-paints-grim-picture-for-philippines-rest-of-asia/
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