climate research in the caribbean
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CLIMATE RESEARCH IN THE CARIBBEAN
Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM)Department of Physics
University of the West Indies, Mona
CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH Task
Quick idea of some of the climate research being done in the Caribbean.
WhyResearch supports the delivery of services. Validation of service (e.g. forecasts) Establishing linkages especially for socio-economic impacts Providing justifications and explanations Assisting in the development and targeting of service Understanding and helping to express uncertainties and
limitations
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CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH
• Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean.
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• Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean within the Caribbean.
Existing Knowledge Base to underpin the provision of climate services – databases, theories, approaches, questions, limitations…
Existing Knowledge Generation Capacity to build on in underpinning the provision of climate services – institutes, personnel…
“It’s okay to use the words Climate research and Caribbean in the same sentence…”
CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH
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What is some of the Research?
Research that is trying to at least answer 4 questions (being asked of climate researchers…)
WHAT?
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1
2
3
4
CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH QUESTIONS
WHAT YOU MEAN BY CARIBBEAN CLIMATE?
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1
2
3
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Interest: Defining it and its drivers
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1. Dry SeasonDecember - April
3. Bimodal - MSD Early season - May-July Late Season - Aug –Nov
2. Rainfall Season May - NovemberPeaks in September/October
Rainfall Climatology
1 2
3
1
CARIBBEAN CLIMATOLOGY
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3
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Ashby et al. (2004)
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High Pressure
Trade Wind Strength + vertical shear
SSTs
Easterly Waves
(3)
0
50
100
150
mm
24252627282930
Cel
sius
NAH moves closer to equatorStronger tradesLow SSTMid-lat fronts
NAH starts Northward migrationWeaker tradesSST begins to increase
NAH temporarily retreats Southward‘Mid-Summer Drought’
NAH return NorthwardHigh SSTEasterly wavesITCZ North
J amaica
Climatology (Bar graph – precip, line graph – temp)
Air Temp follows the sun
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2
3
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CARIBBEAN CLIMATOLOGY
Ashby et al. (2004)
WHAT?
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1
3
4
CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH QUESTIONS
2WELL WHAT?
…IS CLIMATE?
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WELL WHAT ABOUT LAST YEAR?
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3
4
2
Interest: Explaining modes of variability and manifestation of those modes.
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160W 120W 80W 40W 20S
0
20N40N
90W 80W 70W
10N
15N
20N
160W 120W 80W 40W 20S
0 20N
40N
-100-75 -50-25 0 25 50 75 100
90W 80W 70W
10N
15N
20N
(a)
(c) (d)
(b) NDJ
FMA
160W 120W 80W 40W 20S0
20N40N
90W 80W 70W
10N
15N
20N
160W 120W 80W 40W 20S0
20N40N
-100-75-50-25 0 25 50 75 100
90W 80W 70W
10N
15N
20N
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
MJJ
ASO
160W 120W 80W 40W 20S0
20N
40N
90W 80W 70W
10N
15N
20N
160W 120W 80W 40W 20S
0 20N
40N
-100-75 -50-25 0 25 50 75 100
90W 80W 70W
10N
15N
20N
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
MJJ
ASO
2. Dry season drier in south Caribbean
1. Late wet season drier in most of the Caribbean
3. Early Wet season drier in most of the Caribbean
El Niño
MODES OF VARIABILITY
1
3
4
2
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160W 120W 80W 40W 20S
0
20N40N
90W 80W 70W
10N
15N
20N
160W 120W 80W 40W 20S
0 20N
40N
-100-75 -50-25 0 25 50 75 100
90W 80W 70W
10N
15N
20N
(a)
(c) (d)
(b) NDJ
FMA
160W 120W 80W 40W 20S0
20N40N
90W 80W 70W
10N
15N
20N
160W 120W 80W 40W 20S0
20N40N
-100-75-50-25 0 25 50 75 100
90W 80W 70W
10N
15N
20N
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
MJJ
ASO
160W 120W 80W 40W 20S0
20N
40N
90W 80W 70W
10N
15N
20N
160W 120W 80W 40W 20S
0 20N
40N
-100-75 -50-25 0 25 50 75 100
90W 80W 70W
10N
15N
20N
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
MJJ
ASO
2. Dry season drier in south Caribbean
1. Late wet season drier in most of the Caribbean
3. Early Wet season drier in most of the Caribbean
El Niño
MODES OF VARIABILITY
1
3
4
2
Changes large scale circulations
Increases shear Warms Caribbean Sea
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NAO+ ENSO
Combinations of Patterns of variability
+50% a 3-5 yrs+15-30% a 5-10 yrs20% a >10 yrs
+60% a 3-5 yrs15-30% a 5-10 yrs
<50% a 3-5 yrs15-30% a 5-10 yrs16-33% a >10 yrs
Gouirand et al. (2011)
MODES OF VARIABILITY
1
3
4
2
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Gradients in SSTs between Equatorial Pacific and Tropical Atlantic
Low level wind strengths (CLLJ)
Drier than normal Caribbean basin during midsummer drought
MODES OF VARIABILITY
1
3
4
2
Gradient Indices
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Caribbean Rain/Drought Models
MJJ RAIN = – 0.0610 + 0.3111 NINO3(FMA) – 0.0675 SLP2(FMA) – 0.0299 SLP4(FMA) + 0.1187 VSH4(FMA)
ASON RAIN = – 0.0280 + 1.5822 CSST(MJJ) – 0.7227 PACEq(MJJ) – 0.5739 PACTNA(MJJ)
R2 = 0.76
R2 = 0.70
MODES OF VARIABILITY
1
3
4
2
WHAT?
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1
4
CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH QUESTIONS
2WELL WHAT?
3 SO WHAT?
…IS CLIMATE?
…ABOUT DEVIATIONS?
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Indices of Extremes
SO WHAT ABOUT THAT BIG DROUGHT IN 2010?
1
4
3
23 month SPI Jamaica
6 month SPI Jamaica
Walters et al. (2011)
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Interest: Manifestation and Influences
CLIMATE EXTREMES
1
4
3
2
12 month SPI Jamaica
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SST composite: Flood minus Drought
1
4
3
2
CLIMATE EXTREMES
Interest: Manifestation and Influences
WHAT?
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1
CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH QUESTIONS
2WELL WHAT?
3 SO WHAT?
4WHAT NEXT?
…IS CLIMATE?
…ABOUT DEVIATIONS?
…ABOUT EXTREMES?
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Interest: Historical and Future Climate Change and Impacts
WHAT ABOUT THE NEXT 50 YEARS?
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2
3
4
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Stephenson et al (2013)
Total rainfall
Intense rainfall
1961-2010 1986-2010
Historical Change
CLIMATE CHANGE
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2
4
3
TOOLS
PRECIS RCM
WRF RCM
SDSMMRI AGCM (20 km)
RegCM4.
RainSiM
LARS WG
Aqua Crop
Future Change
CLIMATE CHANGE
1
2
4
3
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Mean changes in the annual rainfall for 2071-2099 with respect to 1961-1989, as simulated by PRECIS_ECH and PRECIS_Had for SRESA2 and SRESB2.
General tendency for drying (main Caribbean basin) by end of the century.
Drying between 25% and 30%Possibly wetter far north Caribbean NDJ and FMA.Drying exceeds natural variability June-October – wet season dryer!
CLIMATE CHANGE
1
4
2
3
Campbell et al. (2010)
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Mean changes in the annual mean surface temperature for 2071-2099 with respect to 1961-1989, as simulated by PRECIS_ECH and PRECIS_Had for SRESA2 and SRESB2.
Irrespective of scenario the Caribbean expected to warm.
Warming between 1 and 5oCWarming greater under A2 scenario.Warming consistent with projections for other parts of globe.Warming far exceeds natural variability
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4
2
3
CLIMATE CHANGE
Campbell et al. (2010)
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hothotter
Taylor et al. (2011)
CLIMATE CHANGE
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4
2
3
Why?
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Modeling the impact of climate change on the hydropower potential of Suriname – A study of the Kabalebo river basin
HYDRO model, GIS, PRECIS (25 km)
CLIMATE CHANGE
1
4
2
3
Nurmohamed et al. (201`3)
WHAT?
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1
CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH
2WELL WHAT?
3 SO WHAT?
4WHAT NEXT?
CLIMATOLOGY
VARIABILITY
EXTREMESCLIMATE CHANGE
CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH
• Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean.
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• Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean within the Caribbean.
Existing Knowledge Base to underpin the provision of climate services – databases, theories, approaches, questions, limitations…
Existing Knowledge Generation Capacity to build on in underpinning the provision of climate services – institutes, personnel…
“It’s okay to use the words Climate research and Caribbean in the same sentence…”
CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH
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Still many limitations…
1) Capacity – Technical and Human2) Recognition versus support dilemma3) Questions outpace capacity4) Need to deliver the end before the beginning
“It’s okay to use the words Climate research and Caribbean in the same sentence…”
INSTITUTIONS OF CLIMATE RESEARCH
UWI (CSGM and other Campuses, Departments and Institutes) CIMH INSMET5 C’sAntom De Kom (University of Suriname)Meteorological ServicesResearch arms or Regional and National Sectoral Institutions
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Thank You
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