climate outlook jayantha obeysekera (’obey’), ph.d.,p.e.,d.wre department director hydrologic...
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Climate Outlook
Jayantha Obeysekera (’Obey’), Ph.D.,P.E.,D.WRE
Department Director
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Case Study: Lake Okeechobee• Operation of Lake Okeechobee
requires a balance between multiple objectives.
• Climate outlook has been incorporated into operations. Climate based operations are designed to balance current release decisions with future potential shortages and/or surpluses.
• Position Analysis is a tool for projecting probabilities associated with future lake levels. It is a valuable tool for Lake Okeechobee operations.
Lake Okeechobee Management Objectives
• Protect the integrity of the Dike
• Protect Estuaries
• Meet Agricultural/Urban Water Supply needs
• Maintain a healthy Littoral Zone
• Provide water to Everglades
• Maintain Navigation
Balancing the Objectives
Key Management Objective
Lake Level
High Low
Protect the integrity of the Dike
Protect Estuaries
Meet Water Supply needs
Maintain a healthy Littoral Zone Need lake to be between 12.5' -15.5'
Provide water to Everglades
Maintain Navigation
undesirable desirable
Flood Control
Water Shortage
Lake Okeechobee Management Zones
& MeteorologicalForecast
Seasonal Climate Outlook
TributaryHydrologicConditions Multi-
SeasonalClimateOutlook
No Dischargeto Tidewater
Up to Maximum Pulse Release
to the Estuaries
No Dischargeto Tidewater
Up to Maximum Discharge Capacity
To Tidewater
WSE Operational Guidelines Decision TreePart 2: Define Lake Okeechobee Discharges to Tidewater (Estuaries)
Apply TributaryCondition
Criteria Weekly
Apply TributaryCondition
Criteria Weekly
Apply Meteorological Forecasts on aWeekly Basis; apply Seasonal and Multi-Seasonal Climate Outlooks
on a Monthly Basis
Apply Meteorological Forecasts on aWeekly Basis; apply Seasonal and Multi-Seasonal Climate Outlooks
on a Monthly Basis
Check Special LakeCriteria daily as needed
for Zones B & D
Check Special LakeCriteria daily as needed
for Zones B & D
STARTLake Okeechobee
Water Level
ZONE A
DRY
VERY WET
ZONE B
ZONE C
ZONE D
TributaryHydrologicConditions
TributaryHydrologicConditions
Lake Stagewithin 0.5 feet
of Zone C
Lake Stagewithin 0.5 feet
of Zone C
SeasonalClimateOutlook
SeasonalClimateOutlook
Multi-SeasonalClimateOutlook
Zone C Steady FlowS-80 Up to 2500cfsS-77 Up to 4500cfs
Up to Maximum Pulse Release
to the Estuaries
Zone B Steady FlowS-80 Up to 3500cfsS-77 Up to 6500cfs
Up to 30 dayMeteorological
Forecast
LakeLess than 17.5’ & it’s the Dry
Season
Up to 30 dayMeteorological
Forecast
Up to Zone BS-80 Up to 3500cfsS-77 Up to 6500cfs
Up to Zone CS-80 Up to 2500cfsS-77 Up to 4500cfs
Up to Maximum Pulse Release
to the Estuaries
SeasonalClimateOutlook
Up to 30 dayMeteorological
Forecast
WET TO VERY WET
NO
RM
AL
EXTREMELY WET TRUE
FALSE
FALSE
TRUE
OTHERWISE
WET TO VERY WET
NORMAL TO DRY
VERY WET
OTHERWISE
NORMAL TO DRY
WET TO VERY WET
EXTREMELY WETWET TO VERY WET
NORMAL TO DRY
EITHER FORECAST INDICATES WET TO VERY WET
BOTH FORECASTS INDICATE NORMAL TO DRY
NORMAL TO VERY WET
DRY
EXTREMELY WET
NORMAL TO VERY WET
DRY TRUE
FALSE NORMAL TO VERY WET
DRY
WET TO VERY WET
NORMAL TO DRY
WSE Regulation ScheduleOperational Elements
• Lake Okeechobee Water Level
• Tributary Hydrologic Condition
30 Day Net Rainfall
Average Kissimmee River (Tributary watershed) inflow
• Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlook
Seasonal Outlook (6 month)
Multi-seasonal Outlook (7 to 12 months)
Climate Outlook IndicatorsEl Niño/La Nina ( Roller Coaster )
warm
cold
warm
cold
• Decadal to multi-decadal scale fluctuations in the sea surface temperature (only about 1º F) in the North Atlantic Ocean
Cold Phase (~1900-1925, 1970-1994)
Warm Phase (1926-1969, 1995-???)
Climate Outlook Indicators: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
Summary of What We Know(These are tendencies and not absolutes!)
Rainfall Atlantic HurricanesWet Season Dry Season
El Niño No clear pattern
Wetter Less activity
La Niña No clear pattern
Drier More activity
AMO Warm Phase
Wetter decades; drought still possible
Greater # of major storms
AMO Cold Phase
Drier decades; wet years still possible
Lesser # of major storms
& MeteorologicalForecast
Seasonal Climate Outlook
TributaryHydrologicConditions Multi-
SeasonalClimateOutlook
No Dischargeto Tidewater
Up to Maximum Pulse Release
to the Estuaries
No Dischargeto Tidewater
Up to Maximum Discharge Capacity
To Tidewater
WSE Operational Guidelines Decision TreePart 2: Define Lake Okeechobee Discharges to Tidewater (Estuaries)
Apply TributaryCondition
Criteria Weekly
Apply TributaryCondition
Criteria Weekly
Apply Meteorological Forecasts on aWeekly Basis; apply Seasonal and Multi-Seasonal Climate Outlooks
on a Monthly Basis
Apply Meteorological Forecasts on aWeekly Basis; apply Seasonal and Multi-Seasonal Climate Outlooks
on a Monthly Basis
Check Special LakeCriteria daily as needed
for Zones B & D
Check Special LakeCriteria daily as needed
for Zones B & D
STARTLake Okeechobee
Water Level
ZONE A
DRY
VERY WET
ZONE B
ZONE C
ZONE D
TributaryHydrologicConditions
TributaryHydrologicConditions
Lake Stagewithin 0.5 feet
of Zone C
Lake Stagewithin 0.5 feet
of Zone C
SeasonalClimateOutlook
SeasonalClimateOutlook
Multi-SeasonalClimateOutlook
Zone C Steady FlowS-80 Up to 2500cfsS-77 Up to 4500cfs
Up to Maximum Pulse Release
to the Estuaries
Zone B Steady FlowS-80 Up to 3500cfsS-77 Up to 6500cfs
Up to 30 dayMeteorological
Forecast
LakeLess than 17.5’ & it’s the Dry
Season
Up to 30 dayMeteorological
Forecast
Up to Zone BS-80 Up to 3500cfsS-77 Up to 6500cfs
Up to Zone CS-80 Up to 2500cfsS-77 Up to 4500cfs
Up to Maximum Pulse Release
to the Estuaries
SeasonalClimateOutlook
Up to 30 dayMeteorological
Forecast
WET TO VERY WET
NO
RM
AL
EXTREMELY WET TRUE
FALSE
FALSE
TRUE
OTHERWISE
WET TO VERY WET
NORMAL TO DRY
VERY WET
OTHERWISE
NORMAL TO DRY
WET TO VERY WET
EXTREMELY WETWET TO VERY WET
NORMAL TO DRY
EITHER FORECAST INDICATES WET TO VERY WET
BOTH FORECASTS INDICATE NORMAL TO DRY
NORMAL TO VERY WET
DRY
EXTREMELY WET
NORMAL TO VERY WET
DRY TRUE
FALSE NORMAL TO VERY WET
DRY
WET TO VERY WET
NORMAL TO DRY
16.5(Zone C)
DRY DRY
DRY
631
16.75
16.25
Lake Okeechobee November 15, 2007 Position Analysis
Middle 50%
Questions?
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