climate, natural resources and policy issues dr. robert w. corell the h. john heinz iii center for...

Climate, Natural Resources and Policy Issues

Dr. Robert W. Corell

The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment

An Overview:

• Recent Science Developments

• Thoughts on Decision Support

• Strategies for Decisions Support

An Overview:

• Recent Developments in the Science of Climate Change

• Thoughts on Climate-Related Decision Support

• Strategies and Methods for Climate-Related Decisions Support

Projected by IPPC B2 Reference Case to go to

621 ppmv by the Year 2100621CO2 Concentrations and Proxy

Temperatures from the 400,000 + years Vostok Ice Core Data Set.

CO2 levels now 25% above the previous maximum of ~300

ppmv about 325,00 years ago

Cross-Section of an Ice Core

Tiny Hollow Spheres with Captured Air

Ice Core data A shopping list

• The ice: 18O , 17O , 16O, 1H og 2D• Continental dust, volcanic ash, micro

metheorites and biological material

• Ions: Cl-, NO3-, SO4

2-, F-, H+, Na+, K+, NH4+,

Mg2+, Ca2+

• Gas in air bubbles: CO2, CH4, O2, N2, SF6.

• Radioactive isotopes: 10Be, 36Cl, 210Pb, 32Si, 14C, 137Cs, 90Sr.

• DNA• Ice Properties • Bore hole logging: temperature,

geometry

Natural ice through polarized light(sample size : 4 x 10 cm)

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

IPCC WG I (2007): • “Global atmospheric concentrations of

carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change,while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture.”

• “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”

• “Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.”

10,000 years

10,000 years

10,000 years

• Since 2000, CO2 emissions derived from human sources have been growing x4 faster than in the 1990s and are now above the worst case emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

• Despite 15 years of intense international climate negotiations, concentrations of CO2 in the atmospheric have been growing 33% faster during the last 8 years than in the 1990s.

• These drivers of climate change are accelerating creating an urgency for action.

Global Carbon Project October 2008 ReportNewDataNewData

We face an incredible challenge: Emissions now exceed the IPCC Worst-case Scenario.

Fo

ssil

Fue

l Em

issi

ons

(G

tC/y

r)

(IPCC Worst-Case)

Year 2007Atmospheric CO2

Concentration:

387 ppm~ 37% above pre-industrial

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

Growth in Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations/Year

1970 - 1979: 1.3 ppm/year

1980 - 1989: 1.6 ppm/year1990 - 1999: 1.5 ppm/year2000 - 2007: 2.0 ppm/year

2007: 2.2 ppm/yearData Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, NOAA/ESRL

Acc

eler

atin

gA

ccel

erat

ing

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated)

~ 20%

+~ 80%

Atmosphere~ 46%

4.2 Pg Carbon/yr4.2 Pg Carbon/yr

Land~ 29%

2.6 Carbon Pg/yr2.6 Carbon Pg/yr

Oceans~ 26%

2.3 Carbon Pg/yr2.3 Carbon Pg/yr

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2007)

(1.5 Pg Carbon /yr)

(7.5 Pg Carbon /yr)

Down ~ 5%

750 ppm ~ 4.3 0C

550 ppm ~ 3 0C

450 ppm ~ 2 0C

There is the potential that the climate is likely, as projected by

the IPCC, to take humankind where it has never been

The question is: At what temperature will we stabilize?

17

IPCC (2007) Forecast

Impacts: Areas of Society Interest

All

have

Nat

ural

Res

ourc

e I

mpl

icat

ions

IPCC ProjectionEU Target

Impacts: Areas of Society Interest

All

have

Nat

ural

Res

ourc

e I

mpl

icat

ions

IPCC ProjectionEU Target Significant decreases in water availability in many area, including Mediterranean and South Africa

Significant decreases in water availability in many area, including Mediterranean and South Africa

An Overview:

• Recent Developments in the Science of Climate Change

• Thoughts on Climate-Related Decision Support

• Strategies and Methods for Climate-Related Decisions Support

New Academy Report: Informing Decisions in a Changing ClimateReleased March 12, 2009

Task:

The National Academies were asked to provide a framework for organizing and evaluating decision support activities for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, with special attention to sectors and issues of concern to the sponsors.

The Report Structure:

Chapter 1: The Need for Climate-Related Decision Support

Chapter 2: Effective Decision Support: Definitions, Principles, and Implementation

Chapter 3: Decision Support and Learning

Chapter 4: Information Needs for Decision Support

Chapter 5: A National Initiative for Decision Support

Appendices

Conclusion 1: The end of “Climate Stationarity” requires that organizations and individuals alter their standard practices and decision routines to take climate change into account. Scientific priorities and practices need to change so that the scientific community can provide better support to decision makers in managing emerging climate risks.

Decision makers must expect to be surprised — probably with increasing frequency (e.g., the hundred-year storms may recur every decade) because of the nature of climate change and the incompleteness of scientific understanding of its consequences.

An uncertainty management framework should be used because of the inadequacies of predictive capability.

The Six Principles for Effective Decision Support Capabilities(Based on research in the decision sciences and practical experience with decision support)

1. Begin with users’ needs: Decision support activities should be driven by users’ needs, not by scientific research priorities. These needs are not always known in advance, and should be identified collaboratively and iteratively in ongoing two-way communication between knowledge producers and decision makers. The latter can usefully be thought of as constituencies—sets of decision makers who face similar climate-related choices and have similar information needs.

2. Give priority to processes over products: To get the right products, start with the right process. Decision support is not merely about producing the right kinds of information products. Without attention to process, products are likely to be inferior—although excessive attention to process without delivery of useful products can be equally ineffective.

3. Link information producers and users: Decision support systems require networks and institutions linking information producers and users. The cultures and incentives of science and practice are different, for good reason, and those differences need to be respected if a productive and durable relationship is to be built.

The Six Principles for Effective Decision Support Capabilities (continued):

4. Build connections across disciplines and organizations: Decision support services and products must account for the multidisciplinary character of the needed information, the many organizations that share decision arenas, and the wider decision context.

5. Seek institutional stability: Decision support systems need stable support. This can be achieved through formal institutionalization, less formal but long-lasting network building, establishing new decision routines, and mandates, along with committed funding and personnel. Stable decision support systems are able to obtain greater visibility, stature, longevity, and effectiveness.

6. Design for learning: Decision support systems should be structured for flexibility, adaptability, and learning from experience.

How to Fulfill the Federal Roles:

Recommendation: The federal government should undertake a national initiative for climate-related decision support under the mandate of the U.S. Global Change Research Act (USGCRA of 1990) and other existing legal authority. This initiative should include:

• A service element to support and catalyze processes to inform climate-related decisions, and

• A research element to develop the science of climate response to inform climate-related decisions and to promote systematic improvement of decision support processes and products in all relevant sectors of U.S. society and beyond.

Organization of the National Initiative for Climate-related Decision Support:

• A new organizational entity is not needed

• Can be implemented under the USGCRA of 1990

• Will require a major effort to meet the organizational challenges

Effective leadership from the White House

High-level commitment in the participating agencies

Interagency cooperation among an increased number of agencies

Comprehensive reformulation of plans to implement the USGCRA with a new organizational structure

Decision Support Creates Research Needs:

A major need is for a science of climate response to complement the science of climate processes. It should include:

• Science for decision support aimed at providing decision-relevant knowledge and information for adaptation and mitigation decisions

• A science of decision support, aimed at making decision support activities more effective, efficient, and capable of learning

• Fundamental natural and social science is also needed as underpinning for the science of climate response

Four Modes of Learning

Climate change is a “wicked problem” with multiple decision makers, different value priorities, and changing and uncertain information. Decision makers will need to learn and adapt. Four learning modes are available:

1. Unplanned learning

2. Program evaluation

3. Adaptive management

4. Deliberation with analysis

An Overview:

• Recent Developments in the Science of Climate Change

• Thoughts on Climate-Related Decision Support

• Strategies and Methods for Climate-Related Decisions Support

TempSea

Level rise

Specific country

emissionsCarbon

cycle

Total fossil fuel CO2

emissions

(3, 7, or 15 blocs)

Net CO2 emissions from forestsDeforestation

Afforestation Forests

GHGs in atm

Climate

Other GHGs

C-ROADS Model Structure

User Input

User Input

• Fossil fuel emissions by countries or “economy group”

• Land use emissions

• Additional sequestration from aforestation

• Other greenhouse gas emissions

Inputs

• CO2 in the atmosphere

• Global temperature

• Total emissions

• Total removals to oceans, biomass etc.

Policy Exercises and a Simulator to Facilitate Decision-making by Understand Dynamics of Climate Change

Outputs

Conclusion of Scientific Review Panel

The C-ROADS Climate Simulation:

• “reproduces the response properties of state-of- the-art three dimensional climate models very well”

• “Extensions to C-ROADS, from global to regional projections of climate change, would improve the policy-relevance…and provide a useful means for examining the societal implications of particular emission reduction scenarios.”

• “Given the model’s capabilities and its close alignment with a range of scenarios published in the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC we support its widespread use among policy makers and the general public.”

Publicly Stated Current ProposalsBrazil

Eliminate deforestation by 2050

Canada70% below 2006 by 2050

China Europe 80% below 1990 levels by 2050

India BAU rate until 2035 and then constant emissions

Middle East Mexico 50% below 2002 levels by 2050

OECD Pacific60% below 2000 by 2050

Other Africa Other Large Asia

Other Latin Am. Other Small Asia

Russia/FSU1990 levels by 2012

South AfricaBAU until 2022; emissions constant until 2032, then 1% per year annual decline

US 80% below 1990 by 2050

BAU

What Might We Expect From these “Current Proposals”?

BAU = Business As Usual (A1FI)

BAU

CurrentProposals

(~ 20 Billion Tons C/yr)

CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels

BAU

CurrentProposals

(Over 700 ppm)

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

24

18

12

6

02000 20 40 60 80 2100

Bill

ion

To

n C

/yea

r

Removals

GHG Emissions Under Current Proposals Continue to Exceed Removal from Atmosphere

Emissions Emissions

GHGs in GHGs in AtmosphereAtmosphere

Removals

BAUCurrent

Proposals(~ 4 oC or 7 oF)

Temperature Increase (°C and °F )

Sea Level Rise from Year 20002,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (year)

mm

Sea Level Rise from 2000 : BAUSea Level Rise from 2000 : All proposalsSea Level Rise from 2000 : All proposals plusSea Level Rise from 2000 : Equity per capitaSea Level Rise from 2000 : Equity per capita plus

Sea Level Rise

1 Meter or over 3 feet

Thank You