climate is always changing: regional, national, and global trends (and how they relate to...
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Climate is Always ChangingRegional, national and global trends
Lecturer: Pam Knox, University of GeorgiaAgricultural Climatologist
Outline
1. Introduction: Climate vs. Weather
2. Evidence of changing climate: Natural and human-induced
3. Climate trends in the last 100 years: Temperature, precipitation
4. What do we expect in the next 100 years?
Climate vs. Weather
What is the difference between climate and weather?
Climate is like a seasonal batting average but weather is like an individual “at bat.”
Climate tells us about the average or expected conditions in an area and the range of possible conditions, while weather tells us the short-term occurrences .
Types of Climate
FloridaWest Virginia
Colorado Washington
Evidence of Climate Variability
Lake Lanier, GA 2007 drought
Mississippi River 1993 flood
Evidence of Changing Climate
Palouse Hills east of Walla Walla, WA
Evidence of Changing Climate
Bald Peak, NY
Death Valley, CACross Plains, WI
Mr. Rainier, WA
Evidence of Climate Change
Petrified Forest, AZMesa Verde, CO
Human-Induced Changes in Climate
Contrails
Wildfires
Pollution
Human-Induced Changes in Climate
Urban heat island Land use changes
Regional Temperature Trends
Regional Temperature Trends
Regional Temperature Trends
National Temperature Trends
National Temperature Trend
National Temperature Trends in Extremes
Global Temperature Trend
Global Temperature Trends
National Precipitation Trends
National Precipitation Trends
Seasonal Precipitation Trends
http://www.globalchange.gov/
Global Precipitation Trends
Predicted Trends in Temperature
Across the United States, temperatures are predicted to increase over the next 100 years, but the amount of warming predicted depends on the particular model used.
Predicted Trends in Precipitation
Precipitation across the US is harder for the models to predict, and some models show increased precipitation while others show drying or no trend. Some datasets indicate that rainfall has become more intense with longer dry spells in between.
What changes in climate can we expect and when?
• Average temperatures will likely increase in all seasons by 5-10 °F over the next 100 years
• Day vs. nighttime temperatures will both increase but not necessarily at the same rate
• Extremes in maximum temperature will cause added heat stress
• Growing seasons will lengthen
What changes in climate can we expect and when?
• Rainfall changes are hard to predict due to model differences between different global climate models
• Individual rain storms are likely to increase in intensity
• Longer dry spells may occur between rain storms
• Less snowfall and more liquid precipitation
• Evaporation will increase due to the higher temperatures
• Lower average streamflows and higher floods
Summary
In this module we have covered:
• Climate vs. weather• Evidence of changing climate• Regional, national and global climate
trends• Predictions for future climate
Livestock and PoultryEnvironmental Learning Center
Project Support
This project was supported by Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grant No. 2011-67003-30206 from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
www.animalagclimatechange.org
National Lead: University of Nebraska
Regional Partners: University of Georgia; Cornell University; University of Minnesota; Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, and Washington State University.
Project Partners
Our Mission Animal agriculture in a changing climate fosters animal productionpractices that are: environmentally sound and economically viable,and that create resiliency for animal producers and their partners.
Photo credits
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_CommonsAll photos are from public domain sources or through Wikipedia’s Creative Commons.
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Matt_LaPorta_swinging.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Autumn-farm-buggy-tool-shed-pubJPG_-_West_Virginia_-_ForestWander.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flickr_-_Nicholas_T_-_Windswept.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Islamorada_Florida.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rainforest_living_up_to_its_name.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Glacial_Erratic_on_Bald_Peak_2010.JPG
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Palouse_hills_northeast_of_Walla_Walla.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Drumlin_-_Cross_Plains_-_WI_-_USA.JPG
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Shoreline_Butte_Death_Valley.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:River_Forks_Park.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:FEMA_-_3438_-_Photograph_by_Andrea_Booher_taken_on_07-09-1993_in_Missouri.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Glacial_striation_21149.JPG
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Chaco_Canyon_Chetro_Ketl_great_kiva_plaza_NPS.jpg#file
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Petrified_forest_log_1_md.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Contrails.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wildfiretopanga.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mesa_Verde.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Air_.pollution_1.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cotton_field_kv44.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Crops.jpg
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GreenRoof/
http://www.warwickhughes.com/climate/atlanta2.htm
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:NOAAprecipitationtrend.jpg
Livestock and PoultryEnvironmental Learning Center
Project Support
This project was supported by Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grant No. 2011-67003-30206 from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
www.animalagclimatechange.org
National Lead: University of Nebraska
Regional Partners: University of Georgia; Cornell University; University of Minnesota; Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, and Washington State University.
Project Partners
Our Mission Animal agriculture in a changing climate fosters animal productionpractices that are: environmentally sound and economically viable,and that create resiliency for animal producers and their partners.
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