climate change: the move to action (aoss 480 // nre 501)

Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 501)

Richard B. Rood734-647-3530

2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)rbrood@umich.edu

http://aoss.engin.umich.edu./people/rbrood

Winter 2008February 21, 2008

Class News

• A ctools site for all– AOSS 480 001 W08

• This is the official repository for lectures• Email climateaction@ctools.umich.edu

• Class Web Site and Wiki

–Climate Change: The Move to Action

–Winter 2008 Term

Readings on Local Servers

• Assigned– Eakin and Lemos: Building Adaptive Capacity

in Latin America (Corrected link from previous lecture)

• Of Interest– Antilla: Climate Skeptics and Press Coverage

Lectures coming up

• http://www.snre.umich.edu/events

Energy and the Environment: The New Financial Game

The Erb Speaker Series presents Peter Fusaro, of Global Change Associates: "Energy and the Environment: The New Financial Game."

Refreshments will be served.

Date and Time: Wednesday, March 5, 2008 - 5:00pm to 6:30pm Location: Wyly 0750, 724 E. University, Ann Arbor, Michigan

PROJECTS

• Project teams and subjects

• An outline of project “form”

GOALS

• To provide a knowledge-based analysis of a complex problem.

• Purpose of the analysis– Inform an agency head, government official, a

corporate manager so that a decision can be made.

– Set the foundation for a research program, an initiative, a business plan.

An interesting book for thinking about projects:(Example of process, deconstruction, …)

Climate Change: Debating America’s Policy OptionsDavid Victor (2004)Council on Foreign Relations, New York, NY166 pages.

Previous projects

New Orleans and Sea Level Rise New Orleans and post-Katrina Public Health Great Lake Fisheries and Climate Change Carbon Taxes and Carbon Markets Role of World Trade Organization in Carbon Policy Texas Coal Power Plants: CO2 and Public Health Costs

Who are we?

• Byers, Brian ( byersbh ) AOSS 480 001 W08

• Carey, Erin ( careyeb ) NRE 501 076 W08• Ervin, Joan ( ervinj ) AOSS 480 001 W08 • Felt, Justin ( feltju ) NRE 501 076 W08 • Fishman, Daniel ( dbfish ) NRE 501 076

W08 • Horton, Daniel ( danethan ) AOSS 480

001 W08• Johns, Owen ( orjohns ) NRE 501 076

W08 • Johnson, Jaclyn ( jackiejo ) NRE 501 076

W08 • Knudson, Karla ( knudsonk ) AOSS 480

001 W08 • Kosmyna, Eric ( ekoz ) AOSS 480 001

W08 • Lorenz, Susan ( selorenz ) NRE 501 076

W08

• Mack, Charlotte ( charmack ) NRE 501 076 W08

• Oaida, Catalina ( oaidac ) AOSS 480 001 W08

• Rabinsky, Mark ( rabinsky ) NRE 501 076 W08

• Reed, David ( dereed ) AOSS 480 001 W08

• Reed, Kevin ( kareed ) AOSS 480 001 W08, AOSS 605 002 W08 3

• Schlichting, Eric ( eschlich ) AOSS 480 001 W08

• Tawfik, Ahmed ( abtawfik ) AOSS 480 001 W08, AOSS 605 002 W08 3,

• Thoumi, Gabriel ( thoumi ) NRE 501 076 W08

• Ullrich, Paul ( paullric ) AOSS 605 002 W08 3

• Whitehead, Jared ( jaredwh ) AOSS 605 002 W08 3

• Wurtzel, Jennifer ( jbwurtz ) AOSS 480 001 W08

Project 1

• Hybrid Bus, City-scale initiatives on energy and climate change.

• eric

• eric

• brian

Project 2

• Safeway (corporate) response to California climate intiatives

• Mark

• Susan

• Jen

Project 3

• Navajo Power Plants. Energy, economic development, environmental impact

• Jackie

• Charlotte

• Erin

Project 4

• Carbon and energy. Integrating carbon into the energy institute

• Kevin

• Gabriel

• Joan

Project 5

• Iron fertilization as a way to offset carbon

• Daniel

• Daniel

• Justin

• Carla

A Management Idea

This axis is ability to target cost, quality, time

The first and largest

improvements come from a

plan, an approach to the problem, and identifying mistakes early

Deconstructing how to think about projects.

2) Analysis:

How credible is the information? What is the integrity of the reporting? How complete is the picture? Is there derived knowledge?

3) Does it matter?

Impact. Consequences.

RelationsWhy?

4) What to do?Consequences?

Options?

1) Describe:

What is in the picture? What is known? What is not known?

Projects

• I want you to be aware of what is knowledge and what is advocacy.– If you advocate, I want the advocacy clearly

separated from what is known.– If you are pushing what you believe, I want

you to be fully conscious of that.

Approaching Complex Problems

• What are pieces of the problem?– Brain storming– Mind maps

• Write down all of the things that you can think of associated with the problem

• At this stage do not try to define the relationship between the pieces of the problem.

Consider heat waves and human health

HOT WEATHER

ELDERLY

URBAN HEAT ISLAND

AUGUST FOOTBALL PRACTICE

EXTREME HUMIDITY

EXTREME DRYNESS

HEART DISEASE

EMERGENCY ROOM

PARAMEDICS

1995

2003

MEXICAN BORDER

CHILDREN ON PLAYGROUND

HEAT STRESS INDEX

COOLING CENTERS

GREEN ROOFS

CLIMATE CHANGEMARTHA AND THE VANDELLAS

LINDA RONSTADT

NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURE

FLAWS IN CURRENT SYSTEM

From the pieces of the problem

• Look for organizing notions and concepts. A way to group things.– Function– Discipline, like climate, public health, etc.– Related behavior

• The organization is not unique– A piece, like high heat, is likely a member of more

than one group: physical climate, health threat, air quality, electrical demand

• Avoid trying to make unique assignments of the pieces to groups.

Draw your first picture of elements of the problem

ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and

FORECASTS

HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

PRODUCTS(e.g heat index)

HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL

INFORMATION

COMMUNICATIONS of PRODUCTS ACTIONS BASED

ON PRODUCTS and

COMMUNICATIONS Research and Validation

Policy

Think about the organization of the problem as a whole.

• What are you trying to achieve?– In a complex problem all of the pieces can be

brought together towards several possible conclusions.

• What you are trying to achieve helps to define relationships between the pieces. It helps to set priorities

Heat Wave System: Basic elementsRethink your first picture. Start to separate your groups into roles.

ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and

FORECASTS

HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

PRODUCTS(e.g heat index)

HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL

INFORMATION

COMMUNICATIONS of PRODUCTS

ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS

and COMMUNICATIONS

Heat Wave System: Basic elements and values

ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and

FORECASTS

HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

PRODUCTS(e.g heat index)

HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL

INFORMATION

COMMUNICATION of PRODUCTS

ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS

and COMMUNICATION R

esea

rch

and

Val

idat

ion

Pol

icy

Make that inventory of

• What is known?

• What is not known?

• What do you believe?

• What do you WANT to believe?

• Where do you need more knowledge?

How do things flow through the system?

ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and

FORECASTS

HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

PRODUCTS(e.g heat index)

HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL

INFORMATION

COMMUNICATION of PRODUCTS

ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS

and COMMUNICATION R

esea

rch

and

Val

idat

ion

Pol

icy

How do you check? How does the system inform itself?

ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and

FORECASTS

HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

PRODUCTS(e.g heat index)

HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL

INFORMATION

COMMUNICATION of PRODUCTS

ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS

and COMMUNICATION R

esea

rch

and

Val

idat

ion

Pol

icy

Enough

Three basic types of information

EnvironmentalInformation

PopulationInformation

GeographicalInformation

E1

E2

E3

E4

En G1

G2

G3

G4

Gn P1

P2

P3

P4

Pn

EW CS VP1 VP2

Projects: Goals and Context

• In school students often learn to work independently, in their field, but in jobs people are often thrown into teams– You are suddenly the “expert.”

• Goals– How to define a tractable problem // reduce it to something you can do

• Drawing a picture– How to separate the essence of a problem from the details– What do we know, what do we believe, what are we attached to?– What do the other participants really need – not what you think they

need.– Check, How to Check – Communication

• Complexity, sophistication, audience, context, naivety, dumbing down• How to explain what you are doing.

– Balance, optimization

Projects

• Bigger goals ...– How do we move this problem beyond polarized

positions on details.• Move it from climate-policy, climate-business, climate-public

health, climate-agriculture, climate-ecosystems, climate-...(interest advocacy groups)

• to climate-business-policy-public health - ecosystems

– How do we bring several communities together for the development of foundational solutions or at least strategies that make sense.

– Systems, systems, systems

Projects

• The point --- There is a complex problem, and there are a many different communities invested in how the problem is addressed. There is a relationship with climate change. You want to make a knowledge-based evaluation of the problem and present an approach or a set of possible approaches to address the problem. (Want you to be very aware of “advocacy” in your thinking.)

Projects

• Think of project in the following ways:– You work as a congressional staffer or an

agency staffer. You are asked to analyze whether or not we should drill for oil on the north slope of Alaska. You are required to consider climate change in the analysis. You are to make a team of experts from your staff. Provide a set of knowledge-based options for your congresswoman.

Projects

• or think of project this way:– You are a small company of 3-5 people,

working as a startup providing climate expertise. A major paper company calls and wants to know how to think about it’s timber reserves in the presence of possible climate change policy.

Projects

• or maybe this way:– You work for a credit card company which for

every purchase you make, they estimate the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere and buy a carbon credit to neutralize the emission. You are asked to quantify and validate that the program is good for the environment.

Projects

• or even this way:– You are in the Michigan state government,

and Michigan is going to be the energy state. Biofuels, wind energy, and hydroelectric are part of the policy. Analyze the relationship of this energy policy to climate change.