climate change and tree-insect interactions:...
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Climate Change and Tree-Insect Interactions:
Effects of Temperature, Drought, and Atmospheric CO2
Dan Herms
Department of Entomology
The Ohio State University
herms.2@osu.edu
Presentation Outline:
• Anthropogenic climate change
• Climate change and pest phenology
• Phenological asynchrony
• Climate change and insect populations
• Climate change and insect distributions
• Insects as agents of tree distribution change
• Atmospheric CO2 and herbivory
Source: NASA GISS
10 warmest years in instrumental record
(16 of 17 have occurred since 2000)
1. 2016
2. 2015
3. 2014
4. 2010
5. 2005
6. 2013
7. 2007
8. 2009
9. 1998
10. 2012Meehl et al. (2009) Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures
compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S., Geophys. Res.
Lett., 36, L23701, doi:10.1029/2009GL040736.
Record high temps far exceed record low temps
(if the Earth was not warming the ratio would be 1:1)
Northwest Passage opened for first time in 2007,
and Northeast Passage in 2011
The luxury ship Crystal Serenity, anchored off Nome,
Alaska, in August 2016, on its inaugural Northwest
Passage voyage. “We had to look for ice rather that try
to avoid it,” a passenger said.
Mark Thiessen / Associated Press
2
Glacier National Park:
Number of glaciers in 1910: 150
Today: 25
http://www.signoeditoresfotografia.es/wp-
content/uploads/2015/10/GrnRock2_1926_Elrod_U
M486-XII_114-037_c_L.jpg
Grinnell Glacier
1926
2008
New USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map:
much of Northern US updated to warmer zone
1150 Year Record of Cherry Blossom Phenology
in Kyoto, Japan
Miller-Rushing et al. 2012. Front. Ecol. Environ. 10: 285–290
http://www.citypictures.org/data/media/231/Cherr
y_Blossoms_Ninnaji_Temple_Kyoto_Japan.jpg
http://columbusmmug.com/wp-
content/uploads/2012/07/under-the-Japanese-Cherry-B.jpg
Climate change and phenology
at Sand County, WI
“The mean of regressions for the 55 phenophases
studied was -0.12 day / yr, an overall increase in
phenological earliness…”
Bradley et al. 1999. Phenological changes reflect climate change
in Wisconsin. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 96:9701-9704
CO2 is at highest level (403 ppm) in 650,000 years
www.climate.nasa.gov
Alternative hypotheses considered and rejected by
US National Academy of Sciences
• Earth’s orbit: slight cooling effect.
• Solar activity including cosmic rays: no relation to changes
in Earth’s temperature; atmosphere is warming from
bottom up, not top down.
• Ocean vents: ocean is warming from surface down,
not bottom up.
• Volcanic activity: major eruptions have short-term
cooling effect; minor eruptions have no effect.
• Air pollution: global dimming caused by sulfate
aerosols has cooling effect (but is relaxing).
3
Warming projected for US in 21st century:
• 7 - 11°F under high emission scenario
• 4 - 6.5°F under low emission scenario
(USGCRP 2009)
Climate change projections (US EPA)
• Continued warming
• More heavy precip events
• More frequent heat waves and
summer drought
• More days above 95 F
• Northward tree and pest migration
Muilenburg and Herms 2013
Vanessa
Muilenburg
Climate change and pest phenology
Black vine weevil now emerging 2-3 weeks earlier
than in 1970
D.G. Nielsen, Ohio State University
D.G
. N
iels
en,
Ohio
Sta
te
Univ
ers
ity
Gina Penny
Multiflora rose, Rosa multiflora
Implications of Climate
Change for Agricultural
Pest Management
Robin A. J. Taylor John Cardina Department of Entomology Department of Horticulture & Crop Science
Daniel A. Herms Richard H. MooreDepartment of Entomology Human and Community Resource Development
4
Phenological Modeling
1. Based on GFDL (NOAA) global circulation
model CM2-SRES-B1 scenario (IPCC-4A)
2. Assumes atmospheric CO2 stabilizes at
550 ppm by 2050
European Corn Borer
one more generation per year range
wide by 2050
www.organicgardeninfo.com
Predicted change in pest status in Ohio
Potato leafhopper: earlier arrival; at least one more generation / yr
Mexican bean beetle: increased overwintering survival; one more
generation / yr
Bean leaf beetle: increased overwintering survival; one more
generation / yr
Armyworm: one more generation / yr
Velvetbean caterpillar: earlier arrival; one more generation / yr
Phenological synchrony Phenological Window Hypothesis(Feeny 1976, Mattson et al. 1982)
- A “window” of time when host traits are most suitable for the insect
- Predicts that insect growth and survival will decline as host-insect synchronicity is modified
5
European pine sawfly
(Neodiprion sertifer)
Rodrigo Chorbadjian
One generation each year
Feeds on previous-year needles during a
short window of time
Constrained life-cycle
Winter April May June --- Sept
Hatch cocoon
Insect phenology manipulated relative to natural host phenology
Delayed
bioassays
Advanced
bioassays
Control bioassay:
Natural
hatch
Winter March April May June Sept
0
2
4
6
8
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Pine phenological stage
[shoot + needle length(cm)]
La
rva
l g
row
th (
mg
/la
rva
) . 2006
2007
As shoots expanded,
food quality declined
Phenological asynchrony
Interacting species with differential responses to
increased temperature.
• Plant - herbivore interactions
• Plant - pollinator interactions
• Predator - prey interactions (e.g. bird migration and
prey availability)
6
Ayres, M.P. (1993) Global change, plant defense, and herbivory. Biotic
interactions and global change (eds P. M. Kareiva, J. G. Kingsolver & R. B.
Huey), pp. 75-94. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA.
Changes in temperature during
larval development can affect the
phenological race between plant
and herbivore.
► Mature leaves are of lower nutritional quality than immature leaves
► Insects and leaves have different temperature responses
Phenological race hypothesis
Climate change and insect populations
Developmental times (days) for Tetranychus utricae – two-spotted
spider mite
Developmental stage** Temp. C Egg Larva PN DN PQ Total 15 14.3 6.7 5.3 6.6 3.5 36.3 20 6.7 2.8 2.3 3.1 1.7 16.6 30 2.8 1.3 1.2 1.4 0.6 7.3
Source: http://mrec.ifas.ufl.edu/lso/spmite/b853a3.htm#Table1
Urban Heat Islands and Pests
• Cities up to 10º warmer than surrounding areas.
• Decreased cooling from evapo-transpiration.
• Increased radiant heat.
James Solomon
Oak lecanium 13X more abundant
on willow oaks in hot vs cooler
urban areas
Climate change and insect distributions
7
Northward range expansion of
Southern pine beetle into New Jersey
Pinelands
Photo by Bob Williams, Land Dimensions
So far, Pine Barrens
withstanding beetle onslaught
Jan 8, 2012Nov 25, 2010
Apr 10, 2011
June 17, 2011
Southern pine beetle
threatens Pinelands forests
Hordes of the dreaded
Southern pine beetle are
killing New Jersey's forests
N.J. Southern pine beetle
outbreak is nation's worst
M.P. Ayres, Dartmouth College
Kurz et al. 2008. Mountain pine beetle and carbon feedback to
climate change. Nature 452:987-990.
http://www.garna.org/
http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp
Logan and Powell (2001) Amer. Entomol. 47:160-173
8
Insects as agents of tree distribution change
9
Species co-occurring with black ash in northern MNCo-occurring species in MN that are not predicted to
persist because of EAB or climate change:
Huron River Watershed
White Ash Green Ash Black Ash
Increasing Moisture Gradient
Smith (2006)
>50% Species Dominance
Species co-occurring with black ash in SE MI and NW OH
Predicted black ash replacements based on edaphic
and climate matching:
Climate change, bronze birch
borer, and the distribution of
paper birch
10
Drought stress and bronze birch borer
Experimental approach: manipulate water
availability, create simulated outbreak.
Wound-induced periderm (callus) tissue
as a mechanism of borer resistance.
11
Hypothesis:
Birch resistance to bronze birch borer is
based on rapid wound-induced callus
formation, the rate of which is dependent on
current photosynthate translocated from
canopy to trunk.
Prediction:
Trunk girdling, which restricts transport of
photosynthate from canopy to trunk, will
decrease rate of callus formation and bronze
birch borer resistance in the portion of the
trunk below the girdle.
Girdling experiment to test prediction:
Four treatments:
Girdled tree:
1) Above girdle
2) Below girdle
Corresponding position on paired control:
3) Above girdle
4) Below girdle
Treatment Effect
Autopsies
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Above girdle:
Below girdle:
Results consistent with hypotheses:
Drought stress decreases paper birch resistance to bronze
birch borer by weakening induced defense responses.
Strong induced stem defenses are dependent on carbon
translocation from canopy to trunk.
Climate change, bronze birch
borer, and the distribution of
paper birch
% of Trees Colonized by Bronze Birch Borer
Vanessa
Muilenburg
13
Atmospheric CO2 and herbivory
Paper birch and trembling aspen
CO2: ambient and 560 ppm
O3: ambient and 1.5X ambient
Conservation Biology (1999) 13:700-712
Increased C:N ratio of plants
• Decreased protein
• Increased secondary metabolites
Resulting in
• Reduced insect growth and /or
• Increased compensatory feeding
Herms et al. 1995
Synthesis: Diversity, Distribution, and
Abundance
Elevated CO2 and climate change can have
interacting effects on development rates, host
quality, and nutritional ecology to alter:
• phenology and number of generations
• species distributions
• population dynamics
• ecological interactions
• community composition
• evolutionary trajectories
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