climate change and tourism: global context
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Climate Change and Tourism:Global Context
Caribsave WorkshopSt. Lucia – Nov 2009
Dr. Daniel ScottExpert Team Expert Team on Climate on Climate and Tourismand Tourism
The New Realities of Tourism in an Era of Global Climate Change
» Climate Change is Already Affecting Investments, Operations & Travel , pPatterns
» Future Impact Pathways» Future Impact PathwaysAdaptation for sustainable tourism is not an option and must commence now
» The Mitigation ChallengeTourism is part of the problem andTourism is part of the problem and
must be part of the solution
T i i N t P d !» Tourism is Not Prepared !
The Future is Now … Climate Change is Already Affecting Destinations and Travel Patterns
Billion $ Investments that Bet on Climate Change Affecting Tourism MarketsClimate Change Affecting Tourism Markets
Air Travel and the Environment:Th B ttl f P bli O i iThe Battle for Public Opinion
Emergence of ‘Last Chance’ Tourism Market
‘See Them Now: Endangered Wonders’Places to Visit Before they Vanish
Arctic and Antarctic Wildlife – Polar BearsArctic and Antarctic Wildlife – Polar Bears
Cloud Forests – Costa Rica’s Cloud Forest
Coral Reefs – Great Barrier Reef, Caribbean
Mountain Glaciers/Snow Caps – Andes, Alps, Himalayas, Rockies, Kilimanjaro
Low lying Islands and CitiesLow‐lying Islands and Cities –Maldives, Tuvalu, Venice, New Orleans
Mangrove Forests – Florida Everglades, Bangladesh, Caribbean
Investors‐Insurers are Taking Notice:Tourism in the ‘Danger Zone’
Six Industry Sectors Should Be on Alert Over Climate Change Risks
‘Collectively and individually the tourism industry can no longer afford to ignore climate change ’no longer afford to ignore climate change …’Fiona Jeffery ‐Chairperson of World Travel Market 2007
Governments Are Starting to ActGovernments Are Starting to Act
‘Tourism Action Plan on Climate Change’» Announced 18 April 2007
» Assess the impact of climate change on tourism and develop » Assess the impact of climate change on tourism and develop adaptation strategies for the industry
Weather risksRegulatory risks (domestic and international)Market risks (international competitiveness)Market risks (international competitiveness)
What of the Future?Climate Change Impact Pathways
DirectChange in
Alter Environmental Resources for Mitigation
Affect Economic Growth and g
Climate Tourismg
Policyalter recreation alter recreation season length & season length &
tourism products tourism products (glaciers, wildlife, coral
increase increase travel costs travel costs
Securityadverse impact on adverse impact on global economyglobal economyseason length & season length &
qualityqualityaffect demand affect demand (push factor at (push factor at source markets)source markets)
(g , ,reefs, beaches, forests)sustainability of sustainability of operations operations (water
l i t )
and affect and affect destination destination choicechoice
global economy global economy and tourism and tourism spendingspendingpolitical political source markets)source markets)
increased extreme increased extreme eventsevents
supply, insurance costs)disease and traveler disease and traveler healthhealth
destabilizationdestabilization
Will the Caribbean be‘Too Hot’ for Tourism?
Preferred Climate for Beach Holidays
40U t bl
Based on 2009 Survey of European Tourists
34
36
38
erature (0C) Unacceptably
Hot
28
30
32
y High Tempe
Optimal2050s2080s
22
24
26
verage Daily
Unacceptably20
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Av
B id B b d C i S L i
UnacceptablyCool
Bridgetown, Barbados Castries, St. Lucia
Sea Level RiseSea Level Rise
Infrastructure Damages Due to SLRExclusive of Hurricane Damage(high‐impact minus low‐impact scenario)(high impact minus low impact scenario)
• 2025 USD 10.7 billion annually
• 2050 USD 21 9 billion annually2050 USD 21.9 billion annually
* ‐ amounts in 2007 dollars
Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Demonstration Project
Beach Loss to Sea Level Rise and Storms
Cancun Cancun ii
2006 Beach ExtentMexicoMexico(2009)(2009)
Extreme Events and Insurability
‘Hurricane Katrina Blows AwayHurricane Katrina Blows Away ‘Big Easy’ Tourism’31 Aug 2005 ‐ USA Today
$235 million Hard Rock Casino
US Gulf Coast & Caribbean Region(Mid to Late‐21st Century)
• Estimated premium increase 20‐80%• Increase deductibles (order of magnitude)• Drop coverage in high risk areas
Coral Reef Bleaching and Diving
Percent of Coral Reef
g g
Percent of Coral Reef Experiencing Bleaching at Least
Every 2 Years
2030 20 0 d
Globally ‐ all major coral reefs are expected to be severely degraded
Donner et al. 2005
2030s = top row; 2050s = second row by 2050 … 32% at risk of die‐off by 2050
Impact of Climate Policy on Tourist Arrivals to the Caribbean
“The immediate current threats are emerging as our major tourism markets seek to take urgent and decisive action to gcurb their own contributions to climate change. In so doing these developed nations risk curtailing the Caribbean region’s efforts to develop its societies and economies through itsefforts to develop its societies and economies through its
participation in the global tourism industry”
Caribbean Hotel Association‐Caribbean Tourism Organization ‐ 2007
Major Mitigation Policy Proposals being Considered for Int’l Aviation in Copenhagen
• European Union – Emission Trading System (entry in 2012)
• Int’l Air Passenger Adaptation Levy (IAPAL) (entry in 2013)• Int l Air Passenger Adaptation Levy (IAPAL) (entry in 2013)– proposed by group of least developing nations– levy on all int’l passengers to support adaptation in developing countries
j d l f US$ 8 10 billi– projected annual revenues of US$ 8 to 10 billion
• Aviation Global Deal (entry in 2013)– proposed by Air France‐KLM, British Airways, Cathay Pacific, Finnair, Qatar
Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Virgin Blue, BAA, The Climate Group
d ti t t (2005 b li )– reduction targets (2005 baseline): 0% growth, ‐5% or ‐20% by 2020‐50% to ‐80% by 2050
f ti i f CO2 ll USD 1 5 t 5 0 billi– revenues from auctioning of CO2 allowances = USD 1.5 to 5.0 billion– funds into int’l adaptation‐mitigation fund in developing countries
Impact of Climate Policy and Oil Price on Air Travel Costs and Arrivals to the Caribbean
(from EU and North America)35000000
BAU
Scenario Ten BAU30000000
alsvia Air
Scenario Nine
Serious Scenario
Observed
‐4.3%
‐15.6%
20000000
25000000
mbe
r of Arriva Observed
Oil Price Rebound
Oil Price Drop
15000000
20000000
Num
10000000
ETS Introduced2008 High Oil Prices
ETS Introduced
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Scott and Pentalow 2009
Global Tourism Vulnerability ‘Hotspots’
Regional Knowledge Gaps
Climate Change ‘Paradise almost lost: ‘Paradise almost lost: Maldives seek to buy a newMaldives seek to buy a new Adaptation in the
Tourism Sector
Maldives seek to buy a new Maldives seek to buy a new homeland’homeland’Nov 2008 ,The Guardian Tourism Sector
» Studies of climate change riskappraisal in the tourism sectorThe Maldives will divert a portion of appraisal in the tourism sectorhave found low awareness andlittle evidence of long‐termstrategic planning
The Maldives will divert a portion of the country's billion‐dollar tourist
revenue into buying a new homeland
» All tourism businesses and destinations will need to adapt in order to minimize risks and capitalize on an new opportunities in
strategic planning.
order to minimize risks and capitalize on an new opportunities in an sustainable way
» Knowledge of the capacity of current adaptations to cope» Knowledge of the capacity of current adaptations to cope successfully with future climate change is very limited
Relying on past experience is not adequate … adaptations can failEvidence that tourism operators are over‐estimating adaptive capacityThe sustainability of adaptations has not been examined
Time Horizons for Adaptationfor Adaptation
Mitigation Policy
Tourism is Part of the Problem:Tourism is Part of the Problem:The Solutions Present Risks and Opportunities!
If Tourism was a Country
Rank CountryPercentage of
total emissions
y
y(2005)
1 United States 22.2 %2 China 18.4 %- European Union 11.4 %3 R i 5 6 %3 Russia 5.6 %
4 India 4 9 %
‐ Global Tourism Sector 5.0%
4 India 4.9 %5 Japan 4.6 %6 Germany 3.0 %y7 Canada 2.3 %8 United Kingdom 2.2 %9 South Korea 1.7 %
10 Italy 1.7 %
Tourism Must be Part of the Solution!‘Thoughts from Industry Leaders’
‘Unless (the tourism industry) takes positive action to reduce our carbon footprint – and are seen to be doing it – others will act for us.’
Peter de Jong, CEO of PATA
“Today … our Members ‐ all Travel & Tourism leaders ‐have taken a significant step towards ensuring that the progressive voice of the industry joins that of other infl ential constit ents of the global b sinessinfluential constituents of the global businesscommunity, in order to help ensure that the challenge of climate change is rapidly addressed."challenge of climate change is rapidly addressed.
Jean-Claude Baumgarten, President & CEO of WTTC
The Post-Kyoto Mitigation Challenge for Global Tourism
4000
3000
CO2
Gap betweenBAU and WTTC
2000
M to
n C
WTTC goals of
Target > 100%
0
1000
? -50% of 2005 levels
WTTC goals of -25% of 2005 levels
0
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050
BAU Estimates from UNWTO‐UNEP‐WMO 2008BAU Estimates from UNWTO‐UNEP‐WMO 2008
Emerging Trends:Emerging Trends:‘Carbon Neutral’ Destinations
◘ Marketing advantage in an increasingly◘ Marketing advantage in an increasingly ‘carbon aware’ marketplace
◘ Declared Intention for Carbon Neutral◘ Declared Intention for Carbon Neutral Tourism Sector:» Norway (by 2030)y ( y )» Scotland» Costa Rica (by 2021)
N Z l d
‘Maldives’ carbon neutral plan is not greenwash, just
» New Zealand» Sri Lanka» Maldives (by 2020)
imperfect progress’
Guardian – 26 March 2009» Maldives (by 2020) Guardian – 26 March 2009
Concluding Messages …Concluding Messages …
‘The scientific evidence is clear ‐climate change must be considered the greatest
challenge to sustainable tourism i h ’in the 21st century.’
Davos Declaration
if d ’t l l b l li t h
Davos Declaration
… if we don’t solve global climate change, most other sustainable tourism initiatives won’t matter much
‘Climate change is calling the ‘Climate change is calling the i ld l i ’i ld l i ’tourism world to a revolution …’tourism world to a revolution …’
Conclusion of Tourism Ministers SummitConclusion of Tourism Ministers SummitConclusion of Tourism Ministers Summit Conclusion of Tourism Ministers Summit London London –– 13 Nov. 200713 Nov. 2007
Sea Level RiseVulnerabilityDemonstrationDemonstration
Project
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