climate change and its impacts on the pacific northwest university of washington program on climate...

Climate change and Its Impactson the Pacific Northwest

University of WashingtonProgram on Climate Change

Part I

Global Climate Change

Earth’s Energy Balance and Greenhouse Gases

Source: NASA, Earth Radiation Budget Experiment

Greenhouse gases: H2O, O3, CO2, CH4, N2O, halocarbons

Sources of US anthropogenic GHGs

Source: U.S. EPA 2005

buildings (residential)

6%buildings (commercial)

7%

agriculture7%

industry19%

electric generation

34%

transportation27%

by gas by sector

other CO2

4%

CO2 from

fossil fuels81%

CH4

8%

N2O

5%

halocarbons2%

How cars generate CO2

Source: Murray ca. 2005

CO2 and temperature, 420,000 BP to present

Source: various, assembled by Davies 2000

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

050

,00

0

10

0,0

00

15

0,0

00

20

0,0

00

25

0,0

00

30

0,0

00

35

0,0

00

40

0,0

00

Te

mp

era

ture

diffe

ren

tial, ºC

180

220

260

300

340

380

CO

2 c

on

ce

ntr

ati

on

, pp

mv

CO

2 con

cent

ratio

n, p

pm

Temperature difference from todayCO2 concentration

Temperature D

ifference °C

Years BP

CO2 1958 to present

Future climate change

Source: IPCC 2001

global economic development

regional economic stratification

global environmental consciousness

regional environmental consciousness and economies

1992 projection

Risks of future climate change

Source: IPCC 2001

Possible threats:

• Ecosystem change

• Flooding of coastal communities

• Spread of diseases

• Increase of extreme weather events

Part II

Pacific Northwest Impacts

Average Northwest warming, 2000-2100

Source: Mote, Salathé and Peacock 2005

Year

Deg

rees

F

Retreat of the South Cascades glacier

1928

2000Source: USGS ca. 2005

Effect on modeled Snake River streamflow

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

O N D J F M A M J J A S

Flo

w (

cfs

)

base

comp 2020

comp 2040

Source: Mote ca. 2005

increased winter flows

an earlier peak

decreased spring/summer flows

Trends in actual streamflows,

1948-2002

March

JuneSource: Stewart, Cayan & Dettinger 2004

Effect on Snoqualmie Pass ski industry

Source: Mote ca. 2005

days

of o

pera

tion

per y

ear

current climate 2040’s

(two different models)2020’s

(two different models)

24 cm snow threshold

50 cm

80 cm

Effects on salmonid life-cycle

Source: Mote ca. 2005

winter flooding

low summer streamflow; higher temp.

changing estuary conditions (prey,

predators, competitors)

possible effects

still unknown

Vegetation carbon in 2070-2100

Source: Nielson ca. 2005

Other effects

Likely:• less frequent extreme cold events• coastal erosion and landslides

Possible:• increased precipitation intensity• Changes in El Niño frequency, intensity

or local effects• Changes in fogginess, wind storms

Source: Mote ca. 2005

Part III

Taking Action

Why a Northwesterner needs to think differently

Source: U.S. EPA 2005; Washington State 2004

buildings (residential)

6%buildings (commercial)

7%

agriculture7%

industry19%

electric generation

34%

transportation27%

transportation46%

electric generation

15%

industry25%

agriculture5%

buildings9%

U.S. GHGs Washington GHGs

Two venues for action

Source: Hammerschlag ca. 2005

• Vote

• Financially support concerned organizations- Climate Solutions- Northwest Energy Coalition

• Volunteer for concerned organizations- Door-to-door education- Legislative lobbying

POLICY REFORM

• Drive less- Carpool or use transit- Walk or bicycle- Combine errands- Telecommute

• Drive a fuel-efficient car

• Reduce home energy use- CFLs- Energy Star appliances- Heat room-by-room- Minimize summer A/C

• Purchase GHG offsets

PERSONAL GHG CUTS

The End.

University of WashingtonProgram on Climate Change

annexes

1. Keeping Pacific Northwest electricity low-GHG2. CH4 1000 to Present

Keeping Pacific Northwest electricity low-GHG

Source: Lazarus, Hippel & Bernow 2002

CH4 1000 to present

Source: Mote ca. 2005