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Project TeamProject Team1
Scientists Cleantech to Market TeamScientists Cleantech to Market Team
Delia MillironFacility Director, Inorganic Nanostructures, Molecular Foundry, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Joanna Bechtel PhD ME
Sebastien LounisPhD
Memo Garcia
PhD ME PhD Energy Sci-Physics
Graduate Student Researcher, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, PhDCandidate, Mechanical Engineering, UC Berkley
Kumiko IsonoMBA
Christopher WaiMBA
Executive SummaryExecutive Summary2
TechnologyNanoparticle film that modulates transmission of near-infrared radiation (heat)
StatusLab scale proof of concept; solid electrolyte and product prototype yet to be developed, manufacturing costs and energy savings to be determined
Purpose
savings to be determined
Determine and evaluate potential entry markets; propose target entry point and research recommendationsg y p
Recommendation: target greenhouse market to develop technology g g p gyand prove reliability, then expand into commercial windows market
US Energy Consumption by SectorUS Energy Consumption by Sector
Heating & cooling of buildings accounts for ~15%3
Heating & cooling of buildings accounts for 15% of total energy use
*Source: Selkowitz 2011
Motivation for Near Infrared (NIR) ControlMotivation for Near Infrared (NIR) Control4
=NIR HEAT
Image credit: Memo Garcia
Motivation for Dynamic Control of NIR5
Motivation for Dynamic Control of NIR
ClimateClimate
Optimum solar heat gain
Time of Day
Time of DayWeatherWeather
Minimize heating/cooling loads by real-time response to dynamic conditionsresponse to dynamic conditions
Technology Overview
O i ti N t l
Technology Overview6
Our innovation: Nanocrystalelectrochromic films that modulate NIR transmittance
GlassNano-EC Film Advantages:
NIR
ElectrolyteElectrode
g Low cost process Fast switching
NIR Durability Aesthetics
Energy savings Energy savings
Approach
Di /C
Approach7
Di /C Preliminary Market D Di
7
Diverge/ConvergeDiverge/Converge yAssessment Deep Dive
• Optical Filters• Fiber Optic Switching• Eyeglasses
• Optical Filters• Fiber Optic Switching• Eyeglasses
• Building Windows• Aircraft Windows• Display Cases• Greenhouses Glass MarketIR Applications
• Building Windows• Aircraft Windows• Display Cases• Greenhouses• IR Sensors
• Satellite• Forensic Photography
• IR Sensors• Satellite• Forensic Photography
Greenhouses• Automobile Windows• Glass Bricks• Building Envelopes
Glass MarketIR Applications Greenhouses• Automobile Windows• Glass Bricks• Building Envelopes
Selection Criteria: 1) Practical need for dynamic IR switching, ) y g,and 2) Technical feasibility
Approach (cont’d)Approach (cont d)
Di /C Preliminary Market D Di
8
Diverge/Converge yAssessment Deep Dive
ForensicLow
SatelliteSatellite
exity
ForensicPhotography
GreenhouseBuildingBuilding
Market Size
ket C
ompl
e
Aircraft Windows
Building WindowsBuilding Windows
Mar
k
AutomobileWindows
Hi h
Time to MarketLong Short
High
Satellites: Thermal Control Subsystem (TCS)
Current Radiator Technology:Future Radiator Technology:
Thermal Control Subsystem (TCS)9
Current Radiator Technology: Louver System
Rejected heat
Future Radiator Technology: Electrochromic Film
Radiator
Issues Value Proposition Actuators and electronics Power consumption
Issues Power and weight savings No moving parts
Value Proposition
Dust particles
Satellites: Technology Development PathTechnology Development Path
10
el (T
RL) 9
Large satellites for Communication, GPS
dine
ss L
eve
8
System Small satellites for
scientific missions
Communication, GPS $200M-1B+ budget;
$6-100M for TCS Crucial payloads
olog
y R
ead
6
7System
prototyping demonstration
scientific missions $5-100M budget;
$150K-10M for TCS Limited power
Tech
no
M th D d
Idea Generation
Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Grants6
3
1
Mission LengthMonths Decades
Interview with Ted Swanson, NASA Goddard Space Center on 3/29/2011Interview with Millan Diaz-Aguado, NASA Ames on 4/1/2011
Commercial Windows: OverviewOverview
11
Market Size Competitive Landscape Domestic market for new building
construction: ~$530M Global Market: $4,060 ~ 5,280M
Extremely crowded with 400+ players in US 5 players dominating ~60% of the US
market
Market Size Competitive Landscape
Smart glass accounts for ~2%
Market Trend Stronger trend than residential sector Regulatory trends
Increasing interest in LEED certificates Building energy codes European energy efficiency regulation
Rising energy costs
Source: BCC Research (2009), IBIS World (2010), Pilkington (2009)
Commercial Windows:Value PropositionValue Proposition
12
Customer Needs Our Tech Low-e Traditional ECCustomer Needs Our Tech Low e Traditional EC Expect 5-7 year
payback period ? Initial Cost
Minimize heating and cooling loads Operating
Cost End-user needs differ
based on preference
Cost
Appearance Architects desire clear
windows
Track record in reliability/durability is
Appearance
reliability/durability is important Reliability
Greenhouses:OverviewOverview
13
Greenhouse Glazing Market Market Size 2005 US new greenhouse construction
market: $134.7M1
Total glass revenue: $5.3M-10.6M85%
45% 15% 85%
60%
80%
100%
g $ Total sq. ft. of glass: 2.6M ft. sq.2
Average cost of glass: $2-4 per sq. ft.355%
20%
40%
60%
15%0%
Research Conservatory Commercial Follows general market trends; expected to be flat in the near future
Market Trend
Glass Plastic
be flat in the near future No energy efficiency regulations Energy efficiency is top priority
H ti d li i 70% f t t l
1,2 NGMA Survey 2006 (http://www.greenhousegrower.com/magazine/?storyid=386)3 Interview with Rob Tanzer, Rough Brothers on 3/31/20114 “Greenhouse Energy Efficiency”, Scott Sanford, 11/18/2005
Heating and cooling is ~70% of total energy costs4
Greenhouses:Value Proposition
Greenhouse Owner Needs Value Proposition
Value Proposition14
Greenhouse Owner Needs Value Proposition Need maximum
transmission in visible range (400-700nm)
Modulates NIR with no impact to visible range
Photosynthetic Active Radiation
(PAR) g ( )
Second highest cost Current solutions: Energy
R t ti S t d IR
Reduces heating and cooling loadsEnergy Efficiency
( )
Retention Systems and IR films
Consistent temperature f l t lit
NIR control based on t l i tTemperature
for plant quality external environment
Cost sensitive Energy Retention
Temperature Control
?
Expect 3-5 year payback Systems are cheapCost ?
Positive
NegativeMarket Summary
Comm. Green- Satellites
NegativeMarket Summary15
Windows houses Satellites
Market Size
Time to MarketTime to Market
Value Proposition
Willingness to PayWillingness to Pay
Substitutes
Competition in EC
Value Chain Complexity
Long development time, price insensitive
High value proposition, small
market
Large market, significant
competition
High value proposition, small
market
Large market, significant
competition
RecommendationsRecommendations16
Research Greenhouse Entry Comm. Window Entry
Develop solid electrolyte Build product prototype Test operating durability Investigate low cost
Partner with research greenhouse (e.g., Oxford Greenhouse)
Partner with small glass
License to large glass manufacturers (e.g., PPG)
License to chemical manufacturers (e.g., Dow) Investigate low cost
manufacturing techniques Determine energy savings
Partner with small glass manufacturers
manufacturers (e.g., Dow)
Commercial Window:Market size and competitive landscape
Competitive players
Market size and competitive landscape18
Estimated Market Size
More than 400 companies involved in flat glass market
Around 300 engage in “advanced flat glass” manufacturing
NSG, AGC, PPG, Cardinal and Guardian accounts for
Total Flat glass market for construction in US *1
% New building construction market (vs. Retrofit and Interior) *2
×$2,343 ~ 2,620 MM
39%
US flat glass market for construction *1
60% of total advanced flat glass marketRetrofit and Interior) 2
% of Commercial building market (vs. residential building) *3
×58%
÷Competitive Technologies
Low-emissivity coating
Reflective coating
Thermachromic
Dominant in the industry
% of US market *4 10-13%
= Domestic target market size
(commercial window market for~$530 MM
Thermachromic
Traditional electrochromics: More than 18 companies work on electrochromic technology (incl. non-window application
(commercial window market for new construction)
Global target market size $4,060 ~ 5,280MM
*1: IBIS report, 2010, Freedonia Focus, 2010*2: Volume basis, Pilkington, 2009*3: Overall building construction basis, Freedonia Focus, 2009*4: BCC Research, 2008
Commercial Windows:Supply Chain
Other Stakeholders
Key Stakeholders
Supply Chain
2 Create architectural design Reliability
(manufacturer) Cost
Selection Criteria
19
2 Select material specifications Make suggestions on
manufacturers Input on material
selection3
Purchase
(manufacturer) Cost
Cost U-Value Appearance
Window ManufacturerArchitect Building
Contractor
Project request1
Supply
Purchase4
Construction5
Architect Building Contractor
Project request Request For
Proposal
1 Construction5
Delivery6
Building Owner Visible aspects of windows
Frames and handles ColorD b Do not care about Manufacturers/brands Performance
Greenhouse:Value Chain
Other Stakeholders
Key Stakeholders
Value Chain20
Greenhouse Owner Architect General
ContractorSpecialized Contractor Supplier
User groups work Define Manage Work with vendors Provide materialsUser groups work with architects to define greenhouse requirements
Define performance needs and specifications (e.g., type of
Manage specialized contractors (e.g., greenhouse, electrical,
Work with vendors to source materials (e.g.,glass/glazing, heating/
Provide materials based on specs
Regular glass manufacturers (e g PPG AGC)(e.g., type of
glass, metrics, and manufacturer)
electrical,plumbing) to develop greenhouse
glazing, heating/cooling)
Greenhouse contractorsoccasionally act
(e.g., PPG, AGC)
occasionally act as consultants for architects
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