clavier: region of interest-bulgaria, hungary, romania climate change and variability: impact on...

CLAVIER: region of interest-Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania

Climate ChAnge and Variability:Impact on Central and Eastern EuRope

Coordination: Daniela Jacob, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Germany

CLAVIER participants

RomaniaIGThe Institute of Geography of the Romanian Academy

13

RomaniaUBBUniversity of Cluj12

RomaniaINHGANational Institute of Hydrology and Water Management, Bucharest

11

BulgariaUNWEUniversity of National and World Economy, Sofia10

BulgariaNIMHNational Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Sofia

9

HungaryEiCEnv-In-Cent Consulting Ltd., Budapest8

HungaryBMEBudapest University of Technology and Economics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Budapest

7

HungaryVITUKIVITUKI Environmental Protection and Water Management Institute, Budapest

6

AustriaJRJoanneum Research Graz5

FranceCNRSInstitut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris4

AustriaWegCenterUniversity of Graz/Wegener Centre3

HungaryOMSZHungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest2

GermanyMPI-MMax-Planck-Institute for Meteorology Hamburg, 1

CLAVIER goals

• Investigation of ongoing and future climate changes and their associated uncertainties in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) until 2050

• Analyses of possible impact of climate changes in CEEC on weather pattern and extremes, air pollution, human health, natural ecosystems, forestry, agriculture and infrastructure as well as water resources

• Evaluation of the economic impacts of climate changes on CEEC economies, concentrating on four economic sectors, which are agriculture, tourism, energy supply and the public sector

CLAVIER Workpackages

Observed changes

in means and extremes

2m temperature anomaly for 10 years with respect to the 40 year mean

Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1961–1970 compared to the period 1961–2000

Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1971–1980 compared to the period 1961–2000

Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1991–2000 compared to the period 1961–2000

Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1981–1990 compared to the period 1961–2000

Annual

Annual: negative anomaly for the large part of Europe for the first two decades, then increasing positive anomaly

2m temperature anomaly for 10 years with respect to the 40 year mean

Winter: the most significant changes, the highest for Iceland and Northern Europe

Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1961–1970 compared to the period 1961–2000 for winter

Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1971–1980 compared to the period 1961–2000 for winter

Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1991–2000 compared to the period 1961–2000 for winter

Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1981–1990 compared to the period 1961–2000 for winter

Winter

2m temperature anomaly for 10 years with respect to the 40 year mean

Summer: similar, but not so drastic tendency

Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1961–1970 compared to the period 1961–2000 for summer

Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1971–1980 compared to the period 1961–2000 for summer

Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1991–2000 compared to the period 1961–2000 for summer

Average 2m temperature anomaly (oC) of the period 1981–1990 compared to the period 1961–2000 for summer

Summer

Anomaly of daily mean temperature of the period 1991–2000 compared to the average calculated for the periods 1971–1980, 1991–2000

Annual

Slight increase of the daily mean temperature for the last decade

Anomaly of daily mean temperature

Anomaly of daily mean temperature

Anomaly of daily mean temperature of the period 1991–2000 compared to the average calculated for the periods 1971–1980, 1991–2000 for summer

Summer

The highest increase is in summer (up to 1.5°)

Daily maximum wind gustFrequency distribution of the daily maximum wind gust

Periods: 1971–1980 and 1991–2000. Location: Budapest

Budapest

Increase of the heavy and stormy wind gust

Possible future changes until 2050 using

IPCC scenario A1B and the modelling chain: (ECHAM5/MPI-OM driving REMO)

More calculations and analyses will be done within the project

Winter Spring

Summer Autumn

ºC

Temperature changes (A1B), 2050

(ECHAM5/MPI-OM driving REMO)

Winter Spring

Summer Autumn

%

Precipitation changes (A1B), 2050

(ECHAM5/MPI-OM driving REMO)

CLAVIER Workpackages

CLAVIER Workpackages

CS2: Roads

CS1: Grassland (Hortobágy)

CS3: Buildings (roof)

CS4: Heat waves

CS5: Ragweed

Case studies

CLAVIER Workpackages

Selected case studies

for economic investigations on:

• public sector (natural catastrophes, risk transfer, national level)

• agriculture (BUL: Severoiztochen, RO: Nord Vest,)

• energy (BUL: Vratsa (Kozloduj), Pleven (Belene), HU: Gyor-Moson-Sopron, RO: Arges (Vidraru))

• tourism (BUL: Blagoevgrad (winter), HU: Vezprem (summer), RO: Prahova/Braşov (winter), Constanţa (summer))

WP4 – ECONOMY: Economic Vulnerability of CEE Societies and Economic Impact Assessment

The CLAVIER-Region

CLAVIER Hotspot areas : Romania

1. North-West Development Region; (NUTS 2); Agriculture

2. Arges Basin; Vidraru Reservoir; Hydroelectric Power Plant;

3. Prahova Valley & Poiana Brasov, Southern Carpathians; Tourism

4. Bend Subcarpathians; Natural hazards (erosion, landslides)

5. Black Sea Coast, Constanta County; Tourism

The meteorological station at the Vitosha mountain top „Cherni Vrah“

of the Bulgarian National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology

Thank you!