cics 09 september 2010 1 william. m. lapenta deputy director environmental modeling center...
Post on 12-Jan-2016
213 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
1CICS 09 September 2010
William. M. LapentaDeputy Director
Environmental Modeling Center
NOAA/NWS/NCEP
With contributions from Many EMC Staff
NCEP
Overview of the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center
2CICS 09 September 2010
2
Presentation Outline
• EMC Mission and Organization
• The NCEP Model Production Suite– Global Forecast (+ Ensemble) & Data Assimilation
System– Global Coupled Climate Forecast System– CONUS Mesoscale Model Systems
• Short Range Ensemble System • Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model• Rapid Update Cycle• Convergence through FY13
– Real-time Ocean Forecasting – Hurricane Forecasting
• Transition of research to operations
3CICS 09 September 2010
The National Centers for Environmental Prediction
CPC
HPC
SPC
SWPC
AWC
OPC
NHC
NCO
EMC
4CICS 09 September 2010
The EMC Mission…..
Develop and Enhance numerical guidance– Improve NCEP’s numerical forecast model
systems via:• Scientific upgrades• Optimization• Additional observations
Transition operational numerical forecast models from research to operations
– Transform & integrate • Code• Algorithms• Techniques
– Manages and executes transition process including technical and system performance review before implementation
Maintain operational model suite– The scientific correctness and integrity of
operational forecast modeling systems– Modify current operational system to adapt to
ever-present external changes
EMC location within the funnel
In response to operational requirements:
45%
25%
30%
5CICS 09 September 2010
Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
MinutesMinutes
HoursHours
DaysDays
1 Week1 Week
2 Week2 Week
MonthsMonths
SeasonsSeasons
YearsYears
NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Weather and Climate
Fo
reca
st
Lea
d T
ime
Fo
reca
st
Lea
d T
ime
Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlook
Benefits
NCEP Model Perspective
Mar
itim
e
Mar
itim
e
Life
& P
rope
rty
Life
& P
rope
rty
Spa
ce O
pera
tions
Spa
ce O
pera
tions
Rec
reat
ion
Rec
reat
ion
Eco
syst
em
Eco
syst
em
Env
iron
men
t
Env
iron
men
t
Em
erge
ncy
Mgm
t
Em
erge
ncy
Mgm
t
Agr
icul
ture
Agr
icul
ture
Res
ervo
ir C
ontr
ol
Res
ervo
ir C
ontr
ol
Ene
rgy
Pla
nnin
g
Ene
rgy
Pla
nnin
g
Com
mer
ce
Com
mer
ce
Hyd
ropo
wer
Hyd
ropo
wer
Fire
Wea
ther
Fire
Wea
ther
Hea
lthH
ealth
Avi
atio
n
Avi
atio
n
•North American Ensemble Forecast System
•Climate Forecast System
•Short-Range Ensemble Forecast
•Land Surface•Ocean•Waves•Tropical Cyclone
•Global Forecast System
•North American Mesoscale
•Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation
•Dispersion Models for DHS
-GFDL -HWRF
•Global Ensemble Forecast System
6CICS 09 September 2010
Supercomputing at NCEP
IBM Power6 p575– 69.7 Teraflops Linpack
– 156 Power6 32-way Nodes
– 4,992 processors @ 4.7GHz
– 19,712 GB memory
– 320 TB of disk space per system
– 13 PB tape archive
Cirrus— (backup)
Stratus— (primary)
7CICS 09 September 2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
0:0
0:0
0
0:4
5:0
0
1:3
0:0
0
2:1
5:0
0
3:0
0:0
0
3:4
5:0
0
4:3
0:0
0
5:1
5:0
0
6:0
0:0
0
6:4
5:0
0
7:3
0:0
0
8:1
5:0
0
9:0
0:0
0
9:4
5:0
0
10
:30
:00
11
:15
:00
12
:00
:00
12
:45
:00
13
:30
:00
14
:15
:00
15
:00
:00
15
:45
:00
16
:30
:00
17
:15
:00
18
:00
:00
18
:45
:00
19
:30
:00
20
:15
:00
21
:00
:00
21
:45
:00
22
:30
:00
23
:15
:00
Node use for 20091202
Production Suite on Supercomputer
Time of the day (utc)
Nu
mb
er
of N
ode
s
STRATUS HWM
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
0:00:00 0:45:00 1:30:00 2:15:00 3:00:00 3:45:00 4:30:00 5:15:00 6:00:00 6:45:00 7:30:00 8:15:00 9:00:00 9:45:0010:30:00 11:15:00 12:00:00 12:45:00 13:30:00 14:15:00 15:00:00 15:45:00 16:30:00 17:15:00 18:00:00 18:45:00 19:30:00 20:15:00 21:00:00 21:45:00 22:30:00 23:15:00
dev
ofs_atl
test
para
multi
misc
cdc
dgex
aqm
cdas
hiresw
sref
godas
cfs
mrf
firewx
merge
ruc2
hur
wave
gefs
gdas
gfs_analysisgfs
ndas
nam
Node use for 20091202
00 06 12 18
September 2009
Development Work
8CICS 09 September 2010
Production Suite on Supercomputer
Time of the day (utc)
Nu
mb
er
of N
ode
s
00 06 12 18
July 2010
Missing Data
Development Work
9CICS 09 September 2010
Global Forecast System (GFS)
Horizontal RepresentationSpectral (spherical harmonic basis functions) with transformation to a Gaussian grid for calculation of nonlinear quantities and physics.
Vertical RepresentationSigma coordinate. Lorenz grid. Quadratic-conserving finite difference scheme by Arakawa and Mintz (1974).
Vertical Resolution64 unequally-spaced sigma levels. For a surface pressure of 1000 hPa, 15 levels are below 800 hPa, and 24 levels are above 100 hPa.
• 4 Cycles per day• T574 (~28km) to 7.5 days• T190 (~70km) to 16 days
10CICS 09 September 2010
• Data Assimilation (Implemented 17 December 2009)– Assimilate:
• NOAA-19 AMSU-A/B, HIRS• RARS 1b data• NOAA-18 SBUV/2 and OMI
– Improved use of GPS RO observations• Refractivity forward operator • Allow more observations, in particular in the tropical latitudes, due to better QC checks for
COSMIC data• Better QC procedures Metop/GRAS, GRACE-A and CHAMP
• Upgrade implemented 28 July 2010– Increase horizontal resolution
• T382 (35km) to T574 (~28km) & 64L for 0 to 192hr forecast• Remains T190 (~70km) & 64L for 192-384 hr forecast
– Upgrade GFS physics (Radiation, shallow/deep convection and PBL)• Modified SW and LW radiation calculations (aerosol effects, co2, cloud interaction)• Detrainment from all levels (deep convection)• Testing at low resolution shows reduction in high precipitation bias• PBL diffusion in inversion layers reduced (decrease erosion of marine stratus)• Includes gravity wave drag (effect of topography)
GSI 3D-VAR/GFS Plans for FY10
11CICS 09 September 2010
• Modify GFS shallow/deep convection and PBL– Detrainment from all levels (deep convection)– PBL diffusion in inversion layers reduced (decrease erosion of marine stratus)
• GSI/GFS Resolution– T382 (~35km) to T574 (~28km) & 64L
GFS Plans for FY10 Implemented 28 July 2010
Updated GFS physics package eliminates grid-point precipitation “bombs”
Observed Operational GFS Upgraded Physics GFS
24 h accumulated precip ending 12 UTC 14 July 2009
12CICS 09 September 2010
GFS Upgrade Atlantic Hurricane Track Error2008 Hurricane Season
2008 Operational – BlueDecember GFS Package – RedT574 with upgraded Physics - Green
13CICS 09 September 2010
GFS Upgrade EPAC Hurricane Track Error2008 Hurricane Season
32% Improvementover 2008 Prod
25% Improvementover 1Q10 Prod
2008 Operational – BlueDecember GFS Package – RedT574 with upgraded Physics - Green
14CICS 09 September 2010
Upgraded GFS 500mb AC Days 0-9NH for August 2010
“The medium range HPC map discussion lead showed the NH 500 and > 1000 dieoff curves for August and said they now often prefer the GFS to > ECMWF, not only over North America but also in the tropics”
EC > GFS
EC < GFS
15CICS 09 September 2010
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)Implemented February 2010
• Upgrades:– Increase horizontal resolution from T126 (~90km) to T190 (~70km)– 4 cycles per day, 20+1 members per cycle– Forecast duration to 384 hours (16 days)
• Use 8th order horizontal diffusion & stochastic perturbation scheme to account for random model errors – improve forecast skill– Increase ensemble spread and forecast skill (reliability)
• Introduce ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) for GEFS– Version 3.1.0rp2– Allows concurrent generation of all ensemble members– Needed for efficiency of stochastic perturbation scheme
• Add new variables (27 more) to pgrba files– Based on user request– From current 52 (variables) to future 79 (variables) – For NAEFS ensemble data exchange
16CICS 09 September 2010
NH Anomaly Correlation for 500hPa HeightPeriod: August 1st – September 30th 2007
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
An
om
aly
Co
rrel
atio
n
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast Lead Time (days)
GFS GEFS GEFSg
GEFSg extends skillful forecast (60%) for 9+ days
24 hours better than previsou GEFS
48 hours better than current GFS
17CICS 09 September 2010
North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
• Collaboration between NCEP, Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), FNMOC and Mexico Weather Service
– Elements: • Demonstrate value of Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) • Engage in collaborative software development, focused on postprocessing products
from an arbitrary number of forecast systems• Establish operational data transfer• Application to operational products with shared software• Continue to monitor value-added with MME strategy
• Global ensemble products– NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
• operational in NAEFS• 20 members -16 days
– CMC• operational in NAEFS• 20 members - 16 days
– FNMOC• Currently experimental in NAEFS
– 16 members, 10 days, 52 variables• Final evaluation of upgraded FNMOC ensemble system
– 20 members, 16 days and 73 variables
18CICS 09 September 2010
Raw NCEP
NAEFS + FNMOCStat. corr.
NAEFS
Combined NCEP – CMC (NAEFS) show further increase in skill (6.2d)
Addition of FNMOC to NAEFS leads to modest improvement (6.7d)
Raw NCEP ensemble has modest skill (3.4d)
Statistically corrected NCEP ensemble has improved skill (4.8d)
0.5 CRPS skill
Value-added by including FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS T2m: Against analysis (NCEP’s evaluation, 4 of 4)
Value-added by including FNMOC ensembleinto NAEFS 2m Temperature
19CICS 09 September 2010
20CICS 09 September 2010
Attribute Operational Configuration Q1FY11 Configuration
Analysis Resolution 200 km 38 km
Atmosphere model 1995: 200 km/28 levels
Humidity based clouds
100 km/64 levels
Variable CO2
AER SW & LW radiation
Prognostic clouds & liquid water
Retuned mountain blocking
Convective gravity wave drag
Ocean model MOM-3: 60N-65S
1/3 x 1 deg.
Assim depth 750 m
MOM-4 fully global
¼ x ½ deg.
Assim depth 4737 m
Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation
2-level LSM
No separate land data assim
4 level Noah model
GLDAS driven by obs precip
Sea ice Climatology Daily analysis and Prognostic sea ice
Coupling Daily 30 minutes
Data assimilation Retrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background
Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background
Reforecasts 15/month seasonal output 25/month (seasonal)
124/month (week 3-6)
Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned Upgrade for Q1FY11
21CICS 09 September 2010
Climate Forecast System (CFS V.2) System
Two essential components:
Reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, seaice and land over the 31-year period (1979-2009) is required to provide consistent initial
conditions for:
A complete Reforecast of the new CFS over the 28-year period (1982-2009), in order to provide stable calibration and skill
estimates of the new system, for operational seasonal prediction at NCEP
Total = 6351 + 1620 + 1476 = 9447 years. • 9 month (interannual)• 4 month (seasonal)• 45 day (monthly)
22CICS 09 September 2010
Global HYCOM (RTOFS-Global)
– Adopting Navy 1/12° global HYCOM model using
• Daily initialization from NAVO.• GFS forcing.• Daily 7-8 day run with 2 day spin-
up.
– NCO parallel to start FY2010Q4.• Establish reliability of NAVO data
feed.• Establish compatibility of NCEP
and Navy forcing.• Develop products with customers.
– Full data on NOMADS.
– Become operational in FY2011Q4
Example surface currents from MMAB parallel
23CICS 09 September 2010
High risk to fit into ops; parallel does not fit on ops computer3GEFS
Comms issues being resolved; aggressive schedule1NAEFS FNMOC
Parallel does not fit on ops computer; human resource?2GSI upgrade
Minimal risk if GDAS/SREF resource overlap can be mitigated; parallel does not fit on ops computer
3SREF
Human resource constraint issue (catch ups from FY10)1HRW
ENLIL space wx
Rapid Refresh
Wave Model
GFDL
HWRF
NAMNEMS (NMMB)
Global HYCOM
CFS V2.0
System
Not evaluated for risk4
Moderate risk depending on what goes in before this package in Q22
Minimal risk2
Minimal risk as long as upgrade is resource neutral2
Minimal risk as long as upgrade is resource neutral2
Elevated risk due to system constraints (parallel runs above operational node ceiling)
2
Possible Q4FY10 parallel; minimal risk if implemented in a “valley”1, 4
Minimal risk due to Q1 timing; consumes 18 nodes1
CommentsQuarter
High risk to fit into ops; parallel does not fit on ops computer3GEFS
Comms issues being resolved; aggressive schedule1NAEFS FNMOC
Parallel does not fit on ops computer; human resource?2GSI upgrade
Minimal risk if GDAS/SREF resource overlap can be mitigated; parallel does not fit on ops computer
3SREF
Human resource constraint issue (catch ups from FY10)1HRW
ENLIL space wx
Rapid Refresh
Wave Model
GFDL
HWRF
NAMNEMS (NMMB)
Global HYCOM
CFS V2.0
System
Not evaluated for risk4
Moderate risk depending on what goes in before this package in Q22
Minimal risk2
Minimal risk as long as upgrade is resource neutral2
Minimal risk as long as upgrade is resource neutral2
Elevated risk due to system constraints (parallel runs above operational node ceiling)
2
Possible Q4FY10 parallel; minimal risk if implemented in a “valley”1, 4
Minimal risk due to Q1 timing; consumes 18 nodes1
CommentsQuarter
FY11 Major System ImplementationsResult of joint NCO-EMC planning process (Starosta, Cary, and staff)
24CICS 09 September 2010
Mapping Testbeds Into the EMC Organizational Structure
EMC Team/Branch JHT CTB HWT HMT AWC DTC JCSDA OSSE OPG
Global Weather and Climate X X X XMesoscale X X X X XMarine XClimate XData Assimilation X X X X X XHurricanes X XLand Surface X X X XEnsembles X X X X X
Alignment between testbed and NCEP/EMC missions is critical to success
Some testbeds are able to provide support to NCEP staff to participate
Land surface modeling team has been very successful working with NOAA/CPO outside the testbed system
Data assimilation team is a core NCEP infrastructure
25CICS 09 September 2010
25
Thanks for your attention.
Questions?
26CICS 09 September 2010
NOMADS Update Real-time Server supported
24x7 by NCEP & WOC
Ability to “slice and dice” by domain, resolution, variable, ensemble membership
Access to NCEP’s operational data sets as they are being generated
Short-term archive ~ month
Geographically-diverse backup server to ensure operational availability
Quarterly updates expected between NCO & EMC
26
top related