chula vista market update - week of february 27, 2011
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Current prices for homes on the marketTrends in pricing
Current levels of supply and demandValue metrics
market updateMcMillin Realty's
CHULA VISTA
Sunday February 27, 2011Report for the week of
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McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
The median single family home pricein CHULA VISTA this week is$345,000. The 835 homes have been onthe market for an average of 134 days.
THIS WEEK
Most Expensive ListingLeast Expensive Listing
Median List PriceAverage List Price
Real-Time Market Profile Trend
Total Inventory
$ 345,000$ 384,125
$ 3,499,000$ 109,000
835134Average Days on Market
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 174
54Absorbed This Week*Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 34 %Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 11 %Percent Flip (price increased) 10 %
City Overview CHULA VISTA
6,501 - 8,000 sq ft
Altos Research Value StatisticsMarket Action Index
Median Number of BedroomsMedian Number of Bathrooms
Median House Size (sq ft)Median Lot Size
Median Age
2,000
4.03.010
18Cold! Buyer's MarketAltos Research calculates the Market Action Index which measures available supplyrelative to the current level of demand. Index value above 30 indicates conditions favorthe seller. See the section below for full details.
Days-on-market has been trending uprecently but the Market Action Indexand inventory levels are basically flatand not providing strong indications forthe market.
To get a tightly targeted understandingof homes in the market, we break eachlocale into quartiles. Each quartile is25% of the homes listed.
QUARTILES
Characteristics per Quartile
Last Month's Trend Last Quarter's Trend
Trend Key
No Clear Monthly/Quarterly Trend
Bed BathMed.Sqft.
Med.Age Inven. New
Ab-sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuart
Avg.DoM
*Metric "Absorbed this Week" covers properties sold and those taken off the market for other reasons.Since sales sometimes take months to close, it is impossible to discern in real-time exactly which propertiessold.
Most expensive 25% of homes3,149 5.0 4.0 7 208 14 198,001 - 10,000
sq ft$ 499,9001 143
Upper-middle 25% of homes2,244 4.0 3.0 9 209 16 144,501 - 6500
sq ft$ 387,9002 136
Lower-middle 25% of homes1,740 4.0 3.0 10 209 14 44,501 - 6500
sq ft$ 320,0003 123
Least expensive 25% of homes1,392 3.0 2.0 46 209 12 176,501 - 8,000
sq ft$ 250,0004 135
We'll refer to the quartiles in the trendgraphs below.
2McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
PRICEDespite this week's down tic, the marketseems to have paused around thisplateau. The Market Action Index is agood leading indicator for thedurability of this shift.
QUARTILE PRICES
Prices have settled at a price plateauacross the board. Prices in all fourquartiles are basically mixed. Look for apersistent shift (up or down) in theMarket Action Index before prices movefrom these current levels.
Often, we find insights by watchingpricing trends within the quartilesegments.
3McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
The market plateau is seen across theprice and value. The price per squarefoot and median list price have bothbeen reasonably stagnant. Watch theMarket Action Index for persistentchanges as a leading indicator beforethe market moves from these levels.
PRICE AND VALUE
INVENTORYInventory has been relatively steadyaround these levels in recent weeks.
4McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
The CHULA VISTA market is currentlyquite strongly in the Buyer's Marketzone (below 30). The 90-day MarketAction Index stands at 18. With severalmonths of inventory available at thecurrent sales rate, buyers should findample choice.
The market has shown some evidence ofslowing recently. Both prices andinventory levels are relativelyunchanged in recent weeks. Watch theMarket Action Index for changes as itcan be a leading indicator for pricechanges.
The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using astatistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory.
An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller's Market” (a.k.a. "Hot Market")because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market willtypically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a "Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "ColdMarket") where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months atthe current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall.
MARKET ACTION INDEXResidential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can becharacterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the indexfalls into the Buyer’s Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downwardcorrection.
Not surprisingly given the overallMarket Action Index, all quartiles are inthe Buyer's Market zone with severalmonths of inventory given the currentrate of demand for homes in thequartile. Watch the quartile for changesbefore the overall market shifts. Oftenone end of the market (e.g. the low end)will improve and signal a strengtheningmarket before the whole group changes.
The quartiles can help you answer the question, "How hot is the market for homes in my pricerange?"
MARKET ACTION QUARTILES
5McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)The properties have been on themarket for an average of 134 days. Halfof the listings have come newly on themarket in the past 91 or so days.
DOM PER QUARTILEIt is not uncommon for the higherpriced homes in an area to take longerto sell than those in the lowerquartiles.
6McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
91915Neighborhood DetailCHULA VISTA
Most Expensive ListingLeast Expensive Listing
Median List PriceAverage List Price
Real-Time Market Profile Trend
Total Inventory
$ 350,000$ 377,300
$ 700,000$ 220,000
183140Average Days on Market
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 169
6Absorbed This Week
The median single family home pricein CHULA VISTA 91915 this week is$350,000.
THIS WEEK
Median Number of BedroomsMedian Number of Bathrooms
Median House Size (sq ft)Median Lot Size
Median Age
2,134
4.03.0
7Altos Research Value Statistics
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
Market Action Index 15Cold! Buyer's Market
Days-on-market has been trending uprecently but the Market Action Indexand inventory levels are basically flatand not providing strong indications forthe market.
PRICEWe continue to see prices in this zipcode bouncing around this plateau.Look for a persistent up-shift in theMarket Action Index before we seeprices move from these levels.
7McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
PRICE PER QUARTILEIn the quartile market segments, we seeprices in this zip code have settled at aprice plateau across the board. Prices inall four quartiles are basically mixed.Look for a persistent shift (up or down)in the Market Action Index before pricesmove from these current levels.
QUARTILESCharacteristics per Quartile
Bed BathMed. SqftMed.Age Inven. New
Ab-sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuart
Avg.DoM
Most expensive 25% of homes3,200 5.0 4.0 7 45 5 36,501 - 8,000
sq ft$ 469,0001 147
Upper-middle 25% of homes2,392 4.0 3.0 7 46 4 14,501 - 6500
sq ft$ 392,5002 144
Lower-middle 25% of homes1,844 4.0 3.0 7 46 5 04,501 - 6500
sq ft$ 329,9953 126
Least expensive 25% of homes1,636 3.0 3.0 7 46 1 24,501 - 6500
sq ft$ 290,0004 143
The market plateau is seen across theprice and value. The price per squarefoot and median list price have bothbeen reasonably stagnant. Watch theMarket Action Index for persistentchanges as a leading indicator beforethe market moves from these levels.
PRICE AND VALUE
8McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
INVENTORYInventory has been climbing lately with183 properties available this week. Notethat rising inventory alone does notsignal a weakening market. Look to theMarket Action Index to gauge whetherbuyer interest is keeping up withavailable supply.
The CHULA VISTA 91915 is quitestrongly in the Buyer's Market zone.The 90-day Market Action Index standsat 15. With several months of inventoryavailable at the current sales rate,buyers should find ample choice.
MARKET ACTION INDEX
MARKET ACTION QUARTILESNot surprisingly, all quartiles are in theBuyer's Market zone with severalmonths of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Watch the quartilesfor changes before the overall marketshifts.
9McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
DAYS ON MARKETThe properties have been on the marketfor an average of 139 days. Half of thelistings have come newly on the marketin the past 119 or so days. Watch the 90-day DOM trend for signals of a changingmarket.
DAYS ON MARKET
It is not uncommon forthe higher priced homes in an area(Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer tosell than those in the lower quartiles.
10McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
91914Neighborhood DetailCHULA VISTA
Most Expensive ListingLeast Expensive Listing
Median List PriceAverage List Price
Real-Time Market Profile Trend
Total Inventory
$ 467,000$ 527,311
$ 2,499,900$ 211,000
96133Average Days on Market
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 170
10Absorbed This Week
The median single family home pricein CHULA VISTA 91914 this week is$467,000.
THIS WEEK
Median Number of BedroomsMedian Number of Bathrooms
Median House Size (sq ft)Median Lot Size
Median Age
2,938
4.83.2
6Altos Research Value Statistics
8,001 - 10,000 sq ft
Market Action Index 19Cold! Buyer's Market
Inventory has been lightening latelyand the Market Action Index has beentrending up. These are mildly positiveindications for the market.
PRICEWe continue to see prices in this zipcode bouncing around this plateau.Look for a persistent up-shift in theMarket Action Index before we seeprices move from these levels.
11McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
PRICE PER QUARTILEIn the quartile market segments, we seeprices in this zip code have settled at aprice plateau across the board. Prices inall four quartiles are basically mixed.Look for a persistent shift (up or down)in the Market Action Index before pricesmove from these current levels.
QUARTILESCharacteristics per Quartile
Bed BathMed. SqftMed.Age Inven. New
Ab-sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuart
Avg.DoM
Most expensive 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre4,282 5.0 5.0 5 24 1 3$ 676,9951 148
Upper-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre3,197 4.5 3.5 6 24 1 1$ 524,9502 110
Lower-middle 25% of homes2,648 4.5 3.0 7 24 1 56,501 - 8,000
sq ft$ 444,9503 120
Least expensive 25% of homes2,139 4.0 3.0 8 24 1 14,501 - 6500
sq ft$ 375,0004 153
The market plateau is seen across theprice and value. The price per squarefoot and median list price have bothbeen reasonably stagnant. Watch theMarket Action Index for persistentchanges as a leading indicator beforethe market moves from these levels.
PRICE AND VALUE
12McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
INVENTORYInventory has been falling in recentweeks with 96 properties available thisweek. Note that declining inventoryalone does not signal a strengtheningmarket. Look to the Market ActionIndex to gauge whether buyer interestis falling with the available supply.
The CHULA VISTA 91914 is quitestrongly in the Buyer's Market zone.The 90-day Market Action Index standsat 19. With several months of inventoryavailable at the current sales rate,buyers should find ample choice.
MARKET ACTION INDEX
MARKET ACTION QUARTILESNot surprisingly, all quartiles are in theBuyer's Market zone with severalmonths of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Watch the quartilesfor changes before the overall marketshifts.
13McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
DAYS ON MARKETThe properties have been on the marketfor an average of 132 days. Half of thelistings have come newly on the marketin the past 112 or so days. Watch the 90-day DOM trend for signals of a changingmarket.
DAYS ON MARKET
It is not uncommon forthe higher priced homes in an area(Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer tosell than those in the lower quartiles.
14McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
91913Neighborhood DetailCHULA VISTA
Most Expensive ListingLeast Expensive Listing
Median List PriceAverage List Price
Real-Time Market Profile Trend
Total Inventory
$ 357,400$ 374,271
$ 575,000$ 185,000
214138Average Days on Market
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 169
12Absorbed This Week
The median single family home pricein CHULA VISTA 91913 this week is$357,400.
THIS WEEK
Median Number of BedroomsMedian Number of Bathrooms
Median House Size (sq ft)Median Lot Size
Median Age
2,123
4.03.0
8Altos Research Value Statistics
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
Market Action Index 17Cold! Buyer's Market
The Market Action Index has beenbasically flat recently, and days-on-market decreasing, there aren't strongsignals for the direction of the market.
PRICEAgain this week in this zip code we seea downward notch for prices. Pricinghas been weak in recent weeks andversus their absolute-high level. At thispoint, we will be looking for a persistentupward shift in the Market ActionIndex as a leading indicator for atrough in prices.
15McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
PRICE PER QUARTILEIn the quartile market segments, we seeprices in this zip code have settled at aprice plateau across the board. Prices inall four quartiles are basically mixed.Look for a persistent shift (up or down)in the Market Action Index before pricesmove from these current levels.
QUARTILESCharacteristics per Quartile
Bed BathMed. SqftMed.Age Inven. New
Ab-sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuart
Avg.DoM
Most expensive 25% of homes3,101 5.0 4.0 8 53 4 66,501 - 8,000
sq ft$ 475,0001 121
Upper-middle 25% of homes2,447 4.0 3.0 8 53 1 44,501 - 6500
sq ft$ 389,9002 152
Lower-middle 25% of homes1,873 4.0 3.0 9 54 3 14,501 - 6500
sq ft$ 339,9503 117
Least expensive 25% of homes1,615 3.0 3.0 8 54 1 1Less than
4,500 sq ft$ 289,0004 162
Despite recently falling prices, the priceper square foot has stayed reasonablyflat. This implies that there's a portionof the market being priced at apremium. You can investigate thiscondition in the quartile details.
PRICE AND VALUE
16McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
INVENTORYInventory has been steady around theselevels in recent weeks with 214properties currently available.
The CHULA VISTA 91913 is quitestrongly in the Buyer's Market zone.The 90-day Market Action Index standsat 17. With several months of inventoryavailable at the current sales rate,buyers should find ample choice.
MARKET ACTION INDEX
MARKET ACTION QUARTILESNot surprisingly, all quartiles are in theBuyer's Market zone with severalmonths of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Watch the quartilesfor changes before the overall marketshifts.
17McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
DAYS ON MARKETThe properties have been on the marketfor an average of 137 days. Half of thelistings have come newly on the marketin the past 84 or so days. Watch the 90-day DOM trend for signals of a changingmarket.
DAYS ON MARKET
It is not uncommon forthe higher priced homes in an area(Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer tosell than those in the lower quartiles.
18McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
91911Neighborhood DetailCHULA VISTA
Most Expensive ListingLeast Expensive Listing
Median List PriceAverage List Price
Real-Time Market Profile Trend
Total Inventory
$ 274,450$ 282,689
$ 775,000$ 109,000
170111Average Days on Market
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 177
16Absorbed This Week
The median single family home pricein CHULA VISTA 91911 this week is$274,450.
THIS WEEK
Median Number of BedroomsMedian Number of Bathrooms
Median House Size (sq ft)Median Lot Size
Median Age
1,462
3.02.045
Altos Research Value Statistics
6,501 - 8,000 sq ft
Market Action Index 18Cold! Buyer's Market
With inventory, days-on-market, andthe Market Action Index all recentlyplateaued, the market isn't sendingstrong directional signal for the near-term outlook.
PRICEThe market for this zip code continuesits bounce again this week. We're along way from the market's high pointso watch the Market Action Index topredict how long this trend will last.
19McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
PRICE PER QUARTILEIn the quartile market segments, we seeprices in this zip code have settled at aprice plateau across the board. Prices inall four quartiles are basically mixed.Look for a persistent shift (up or down)in the Market Action Index before pricesmove from these current levels.
QUARTILESCharacteristics per Quartile
Bed BathMed. SqftMed.Age Inven. New
Ab-sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuart
Avg.DoM
Most expensive 25% of homes2,182 4.0 3.0 22 42 7 28,001 - 10,000
sq ft$ 377,5001 113
Upper-middle 25% of homes1,635 3.5 2.0 43 42 2 46,501 - 8,000
sq ft$ 292,1502 94
Lower-middle 25% of homes1,352 3.0 2.0 51 43 5 56,501 - 8,000
sq ft$ 250,0003 115
Least expensive 25% of homes1,110 3.0 2.0 50 43 2 56,501 - 8,000
sq ft$ 200,0004 122
This is a market where watching thevalue metrics (like price per squarefoot) can provide insight that you don'tget at first glance. Despite the fact thathome prices are rising fairlyconsistently, the price per square foot ofhomes listed is declining. Often this canbe attributed to new and remodeledhomes on the market. Buyers in thearea are paying more but also gettingmore for their money.
PRICE AND VALUE
20McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
INVENTORYInventory has been falling in recentweeks with 170 properties available thisweek. Note that declining inventoryalone does not signal a strengtheningmarket. Look to the Market ActionIndex to gauge whether buyer interestis falling with the available supply.
The CHULA VISTA 91911 is quitestrongly in the Buyer's Market zone.The 90-day Market Action Index standsat 18. With several months of inventoryavailable at the current sales rate,buyers should find ample choice.
MARKET ACTION INDEX
MARKET ACTION QUARTILESNot surprisingly, all quartiles are in theBuyer's Market zone with severalmonths of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Watch the quartilesfor changes before the overall marketshifts.
21McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
DAYS ON MARKETThe properties have been on the marketfor an average of 111 days. Half of thelistings have come newly on the marketin the past 77 or so days. Watch the 90-day DOM trend for signals of a changingmarket.
DAYS ON MARKET
It is not uncommon forthe higher priced homes in an area(Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer tosell than those in the lower quartiles.
22McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
91910Neighborhood DetailCHULA VISTA
Most Expensive ListingLeast Expensive Listing
Median List PriceAverage List Price
Real-Time Market Profile Trend
Total Inventory
$ 340,000$ 423,988
$ 3,499,000$ 175,000
172148Average Days on Market
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 195
10Absorbed This Week
The median single family home pricein CHULA VISTA 91910 this week is$340,000.
THIS WEEK
Median Number of BedroomsMedian Number of Bathrooms
Median House Size (sq ft)Median Lot Size
Median Age
1,771
4.03.038
Altos Research Value Statistics
6,501 - 8,000 sq ft
Market Action Index 18Cold! Buyer's Market
The Market Action index has beentrending down lately, while days-on-market is climbing, providing mostlybearish signs for the market.
PRICEDespite this week's down tic, pricetrends in this zip code have generallybeen moving up lately. We are belowthe market's high point, and we'llinvestigate the Market Action Indexlater on to see if we expect this week'sblip to become a downward trend.
23McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
PRICE PER QUARTILEIn the quartile market segments, we seeprices in this zip code have settled at aprice plateau across the board. Prices inall four quartiles are basically mixed.Look for a persistent shift (up or down)in the Market Action Index before pricesmove from these current levels.
QUARTILESCharacteristics per Quartile
Bed BathMed. SqftMed.Age Inven. New
Ab-sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuart
Avg.DoM
Most expensive 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre2,920 4.0 3.0 18 43 0 4$ 570,0001 187
Upper-middle 25% of homes2,017 4.0 3.0 19 43 5 36,501 - 8,000
sq ft$ 369,0002 129
Lower-middle 25% of homes1,650 3.0 2.0 51 43 4 06,501 - 8,000
sq ft$ 310,0003 126
Least expensive 25% of homes1,245 3.0 2.0 59 43 3 34,501 - 6500
sq ft$ 240,0004 150
In a market where prices are risingfairly consistently, price per square footis essentially flat. This often impliesthat new homes coming on the marketare pricier, and also larger than olderhomes. As a result the value one canbuy stays the same.
PRICE AND VALUE
24McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
INVENTORYInventory has been climbing lately with172 properties available this week. Notethat rising inventory alone does notsignal a weakening market. Look to theMarket Action Index to gauge whetherbuyer interest is keeping up withavailable supply.
The CHULA VISTA 91910 is quitestrongly in the Buyer's Market zone.The 90-day Market Action Index standsat 18. With several months of inventoryavailable at the current sales rate,buyers should find ample choice.
MARKET ACTION INDEX
MARKET ACTION QUARTILESNot surprisingly, all quartiles are in theBuyer's Market zone with severalmonths of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Watch the quartilesfor changes before the overall marketshifts.
25McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
DAYS ON MARKETThe properties have been on the marketfor an average of 147 days. Half of thelistings have come newly on the marketin the past 87 or so days. Watch the 90-day DOM trend for signals of a changingmarket.
DAYS ON MARKET
It is not uncommon forthe higher priced homes in an area(Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer tosell than those in the lower quartiles.
About Altos Research CorporationAltos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market in local markets acrossthe country. All information contained herein is based on properties currently listed for sale and availablepublicly. When evaluating a particular property, make sure you use comparable sales data in addition tothe market trend information available in this report. The data presented in this report is accurate to thebest of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such. Use this report as one input in the real estatedecision making process, but do not rely on it for accuracy. Nothing in this report or any other AltosResearch publication is a recommendation to buy or to sell real estate. We recommend you work with alicensed real estate agent or broker.
Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2010. All Rights Reserved www.altosresearch.com
26McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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