christopher l. clay air vehicles directorate air force research laboratory certification by analysis...

Christopher L. ClayAir Vehicles Directorate

Air Force Research Laboratory

CERTIFICATION BY ANALYSIS

Overview to FAA30 August 2001

2

By Analysis

Increasing reliance on analytical techniques

to achieve a more comprehensive

understanding of the system

in order to manage system risk better

Definition

Certification

A structured mechanism of identifying and reducing risk to insure a system is safe to

operate and meets performance goals

3

Goal

Reduce time and cost associated with

certification

4

Motivation

Coupon Element Testing

Panel and Critical Detail Testing

Critical Subcomponent Testing

Preproduction Verification Test Article

Static Test Article

Fatigue Test Article

Structural Building Block Testing

10’s of $M each block

5

Eliminate SurprisesIn Tests & In Field

Reduce Time and $$$

System

Acquisition

Reduce Tests

Transition Approach

Design Process

AnalysisCertification

High Fidelity/Risk Quantified

Methods

Research &

Development

Reliable PredictionsSystem Knowledge

6

Approach

Current Design Process Deficiencies• Slow and fragmented design process• “Over the wall” communications• Sequential processing

Design Process

AnalysisCertification

High Fidelity/Risk Quantified

Methods

Design Process• Rapid modeling Configuration management

• Object oriented Information/data management

7

Design Process

AnalysisCertification

High Fidelity/Risk Quantified

Methods

Approach

High Fidelity/Risk Quantified Methods Deficiencies• Uncertainty modeling in Structures and Aerodynamics• Understanding of the physics • Computationally intensive high fidelity methods

High Fidelity/Risk Quantified Methods

•Non-deterministic methods•Faster turn-around time

•ROM/Nonlinear methods

8

Approach

Analysis Certification Deficiencies• Modeling errors• Credibility of analytical results• Implementation of analysis• Human errors

Design Process

AnalysisCertification

High Fidelity/Risk Quantified

Methods

AnalysisCertification

• Expert systems•Benchmarking

•VV&A

9Seek EagleAFI 63-104

Technical Data

Certification ProcessAFMAN 63-119

Test Planning &Documentation

System Design &Performance

Test Assets &Support

Safety Reviews &

Certifications

OT&E Plan

Security Planning

Deficiency ID & Correction

Process

TEMP

Concept ofOperations

MaintenanceConcept

STAR

COEA

ORD

MNS

Schedule

Modeling & Simulation

Contractor Support

Test & EvalInfrastructure

Support Agreements

Personnel

Packaging, Handling &

Transportation

Test Team Training

Production Representative

Articles

Contractor Testing

Configuration Management

Plan

Deficiency Resolution

Sufficiency of Spares

Support Equipment

System Maturity

System Performance

Software Development

Live Fire Testing

Interoperability & Compatibility

Developmental Testing

Threat Systems

10

Fundamental Sciences & Empirical Data

CO

NT

RO

LS

AE

RO

DY

NA

MIC

S

SE

NS

OR

S

PR

OP

UL

SIO

NS

TR

UC

TU

RE

S WE

AP

ON

SConceptual Design

MISSION / ENGAGEMENT

CAMPAIGN

INTEGRATED DESIGN

Certification by AnalysisHorizontal and Vertical Integration

Preliminary Design

Detailed Design

REDUCETIME & COST

Sim based Acquisition Vehicle

Propulsion Aero Structures Control Subsystems

Tail Fuselage Wing

SkinsWing box

Spars Ribs

Bulkheads Skins

Certification by AnalysisBuilding Block Approach

Design Process

AnalysisCertification

High Fidelity/Risk Quantified

Methods

Applies to each block

12

Certification by AnalysisPlayers

• RTO – new WGs– Qualification by Analysis

– Integration of Tools and Processes for Affordable Weapons

– Reduction of Military Vehicle Acquisition Time & Cost Through Advanced Product Simulation

– Prior work published 1990

• NASA • FAA – Probability Analysis• DARPA – AIM

• AFRL– ML – Analytical Chemistry– PR – Probability Analysis– VA – Integration

• Other Industries– Nuclear power – cannot take

to failure– Nuclear arms – Test Ban

Treaty– Submarine – Similar to A/C– Civil Structure – One-of-a-kind,

SF – 100 yrs ago 3, today=2– Chemical - Analysis to

eliminate human specimens Under process. Source: Bill Moyers – PBS

13

4/12/2001

AIR VEHICLES DIRECTORATE

Sim based Acquisition

Vehicle

Propulsion Aero Structures Control Subsystems

Assess where do we fit in the process and what do can we impact significantly. Then – What are the analytical gaps associated withthe impact points?

Tail Fuselage Wing

SkinsWing box

Spars Ribs

Bulkheads Skins

Certification by AnalysisBuilding Block Approach

Summary

2

AIR VEHICLES DIRECTORATE

Goal

Reduce time and cost associated

with certification

9

AIR VEHICLES DIRECTORATE

Approach

Design Process

AnalysisCertification

High Fidelity &Risk Quantified

Methods

Risk reduction, design driven process that we can impact by fully utilizing technologies such as uncertainty analysis and ROM resulting in a

reduction in the dependence on testing and increasing our design capabilities - instilling

innovation and freedom.

Backups

15

IPT Structure

Advisory GroupAFRL/VA – Chair

AFRL/PRAFRL/MNSeek EagleAF/TEASC/ENSAF/AQALC

NavyFAABoeingLMCONG

Integrating IPTAFRL/VA – Chair

Chairs from each of the IPT + a design environments and

process POC

OthersControls Aero

PropulsionAirframes Stores

Working Groups

16

Advisory Group

Advisory GroupAFRL/VA – Chair

AFRL/PRAFRL/MN

AF/TEASC/ENSAF/AQALC

Navy N/ N/FAABoeingLMCONG

IPTAFRL/VA – Chair

Chairs from each of the IPT + a design environments and process POC

OthersControls Aero

PropulsionAirframes Stores

Chair – Dr Don Paul, AFRL/VA

AFRL/PR – Dr Alan GarscaddenAFRL/MN – Mr Stephen KornSeek Eagle - Dr. William Dyess, Jr AF/TE – Mr John T Manclark or

Mr David HamiltonASC/EN – Dr John W LincolnSAF/AQ – Dr Don DanielALC – Navy Test and Evaluation Staff (AIR 5.0C) Air Vehicle (AIR 4.3) Airworthiness (AIR 4.0P)FAABoeing – Dr James MarkLMCO – Mr Kevin ImotoNG – Mr Jerry Lockenour

17

IPTs

Advisory GroupAFRL/VA – Chair

AFRL/PRAFRL/MN

AF/TEASC/ENSAF/AQALC

Navy N/ N/FAABoeingLMCONG

Overarching IPTAFRL/VA – Chair

Chairs from each of the IPT + a design environments and process POC

OthersControls Aero

PropulsionAirframes Stores

Lead –

Team:

18

Overarching IPT

Advisory GroupAFRL/VA – Chair

AFRL/PRAFRL/MN

AF/TEASC/ENSAF/AQALC

Navy N/ N/FAABoeingLMCONG

Overarching IPTAFRL/VA – Chair

Chairs from each of the IPT + a design environments and process POC

OthersControls Aero

PropulsionAirframes Stores

CoChairs – Drs Don Paul and Duane Veley

Airframe IPT Lead – Propulsion IPT Lead – Stores IPT Lead – Controls IPT Lead – Aero IPT Lead – Design Environments and Process Lead –

Industry Advisors -

Air VehiclesFuture Technologies Workshops

Chris ClayAir Force Research Laboratory

20

Workshop I17-18 Jan 01

Eglin AFB

Workshop II22-23 May 01

Colorado Springs

Workshop III18-19 Sep 01

Wright-Patt AFB

Understand the Air Force Capability Needs

Assess & Link AF Capability Needs with Aerospace Vehicle Concepts

Identify Technology Programs to Support Concepts & Capability Needs

Capabilities Needed

Concepts

POMInvestment

PlanCyclic Process

Workshop Process

Inputs from:Air Force (AF Strat Plan & Majcom MAPs, etc.), other Gov’t, Academia,

Industry

Scenarios

Throughout Process

MOEs

Methods

21

INVITED ORGANIZATIONS

• ACC, AC2ISRC, AFMC, AFSOC, AFSPC, AMC• AFRL (CC, XP, AFOSR, and all Tech Directorates)• ASC, ESC, SMC, HSW, AEDC• USAF/XP, USAF/XO, SAF/AQR, DDR&E• NASA• Scientific Advisory Board• NAIC• US Army TRADOC• NASC, NAWC• Battle Labs• Boeing, Lockheed-Martin, Northrop Grumman, Orbital Sciences,

Allison, General Electric, Honeywell, Pratt & Whitney, Raytheon

22

WORKSHOP IITOP CONCEPT CATEGORIES

• Global Power– Strike UAVs– Long-Range Deep Strike Aircraft– Mach 5+ UCAV– Directed Energy Tactical Aircraft– Airborne Carrier

• Global Vigilance– High-Altitude Long Endurance ISR Platforms– Recce/Strike UAVs– Cooperative/Persistent Surveillance Strike Vehicles– Unattended Battlespace Sensors

• Global Reach– Strategic Airlifter– Tactical Airlifter– Tanker– Space Operations Vehicle

• CSAR and Special Ops– Cargo-class SSTOL/VSTOL– CSAR/Special Ops Precision Engagement UAVs

23

WORKSHOP IITOP CONCEPT CATEGORIES

• Global Power– Strike UAVs – Long-Range Deep Strike Aircraft – Mach 5+ UCAV– Directed Energy Tactical Aircraft – Airborne Carrier

• Global Vigilance– High-Altitude Long Endurance ISR Platforms – Recce/Strike UAVs – Cooperative/Persistent Surveillance Strike Vehicles – Unattended Battlespace Sensors

• Global Reach– Strategic Airlifter – Tactical Airlifter – Tanker – Space Operations Vehicle

• CSAR and Special Ops– Cargo-class SSTOL/VSTOL – CSAR/Special Ops Precision Engagement UAVs

24

Workshop IV – The next step

– Goals

• Energize research community on critical research needs of the Air Force

– Educate academic community on Workshops I-III

• Translate technical challenges from Workshop III into basic science issues

• Identify opportunities for new or additional research

25

Workshop Schedule

• Multidisciplinary Technologies– 9th AIAA MOA Conference, 4-6 Sept, Atlanta GA

• Air Vehicles Controls Technologies– 2002 IEEE Conference on Decision & Control, 10-13 Dec, Las

Vegas NV

• Aeronautical Sciences Technologies– 41st Aerospace Sciences Meeting, 6-9 Jan 2003, Reno NV

• Air Vehicles Structures Technologies– 44th Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials Conference,

7-10 April 2003, Norfolk VA

26

Draft Outline

Introduction Dr. Jeff Tromp 1330 – 1335

Operator's View of Air Mr. Dave Leggett 1335 – 1420Vehicles Future Technologies

Air Vehicles StructuresResearch Needs Dr. Dave Pratt 1420 – 1450

Dr. Larry Byrd 1450 – 1520

Mr. Mike Spottswood 1520 – 1550

Mr. Bill Baron 1550 – 1620

Group discussion Dr. Dave Pratt 1620 – 1700