centenarians and health in australia

Centenarians and Health in Australia

John McCormack PhD (& A/Prof Heather Booth ANU)

LaTrobe University, Victoria, Australia

Paper for Eleventh International Federation on Ageing 28-1 June 2012, Prague, Czech Republic

j.mccormack@latrobe.edu.au

Marathon at age 100yrs?(Fauja Singh)

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Jean Calment 40yrs(**NB All photos on public record or with informed consent)

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Jean Calment 60yrs

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Jean Calment 116yrs

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Jean Calment 118 yrs

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Jean Calment 122+ years

Historical Old Age in Australia1761 – 1875: 114 years Bendigo

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Christina Cock – 114 (Australia)

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Jack Lockett 111 years(Australia)

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Indigenous Australians

WW1 Vet Claude Choules 1901

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What is old age?Redefining old age?

•Traditionally An age of dependency? An age when one has to be provided for?•Life Expectancy 1900 approx 51 years / 1908 Age Pension at age 65 years•2010 LE 83.7 years•Big increase in LE. New demographic groups of people emerging

Growing older

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Rectangularisation of the survival curve

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100 the new 80??(actually 72 is the new 65! [ABS 3302.0])

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Centenarian StudyResearch Questions

• 1. What are the characteristics of people aged 100 years or more at first assessment?

• 2. How do centenarians compare with younger aged cohorts at first assessment?

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1. ACAS (Vic) Data 2002-03

• Aged care Assesment Service: 53951 Ax

• Centenarians Assessed (first Ax): 109• Australian census 2006: .12% pop 65+

assessments )

• Data Analysis:• Single Year Age comparison • Cohort comparison - 60s, 80s, 100s

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Centenarians - Age

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Centenarian Characteristics by single year of age

100 101 102 103 104 105 108

% female

76 82 62 100 100 100 0

Home owner

57 53 38 33 100 33 0

% married

26 26 0 0 0 0 0

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Centenarian Characteristics by single year of age (%)

100 101 102 103 104 105 108

Mobility 62 62 50 0 100 33 0

Continence

51 35 4 4 4 2 0

Orientation

67 67 37 0 50 0 0

Mob, aware & cont

53 38 6 3 0 0 0

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Centenarian Characteristics by single year of age

100 101 102 103 104 105 108

R’mend Resi NH

22 24 62 100 0 66 100

R’mend

High Care

22 24 62 100 0 66 100

R’mend Rehab

5 6 12 0 0 0 0

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2. Cohort Comparison

Socio-demog characteristics by Age Group

60s(111)

70s(123)

80s(93)

90s(79)

100+(109)

% female 55 65 63 82 100

Home owner 68 72 73 59 53

% married 46 43 35 5 22

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Health Social characteristics by Age Group

60s(111)

70s(123)

80s(93)

90s(79)

100+(109)

Mobility 68 68 68 58 58

Continence* 78 71 69 60 46

Orientation* 78 69 74 62 60

Mob, aware & cont (N)

59

53%

54

(44%)

40

(43%)

31

(39%)

34

(31%)

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destinations by Age Group

60s(111)

70s(123)

80s(93)

90s(79)

100+(109)

R’mend Resi NH*

12 9 12 18 30

R’mend

High Care

11 9 12 18 30

R’mend Rehab

21 14 9 12 5

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Conclusion Centenarian ACAS Data

• Centenarians = The Same and slightly Different?• As expected, slight functional decrease with age.• Age 100 ‘fitter’ than 104 +• Younger centens receive more services than very old ones. • Received services = more to ‘young’• Recommended for resi Nursing Home increases with age• As expected, more health issues with increasing centenarian

age.• No Sig differences on most variables!• Some Heterogeneity: Like younger cohorts (some go home

alone etc.)• CONCLUSION: Further research is needed to understand

the relationships between age, functional ability, living arrangements and recommended aged care services for our oldest old citizens.

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Conclusion- The Future

• Will we live to 150• Will we live 1000 years (Aubrey de Grey)• Are we heading for Immortality• Will we reach the Singularity

• Three Views on this : (Olshansky)• 1.Futurists• 2.Optimists• 3. Realists

• Implications:Population

• Longevity Dividend or Longevity risk or both?