cch uk conference 2012: the future ready firm london 21 june future ready? & what of the future?

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 JuneCCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

Future Ready? & What of the future? www.stephenarcher.eu

www.stephenarcher.euCCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

The market can remain irrational…

John Maynard Keynes 1883 - 1946

...for longer than you can remain insolvent.

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

Europe : Free fall or Free of shackles?

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

Fiscal Pact?

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

Countries most exposed the Greek debt

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

Government Deficit as % of GDP 2012

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

G8 Growth prospects

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

• Political Risk• Economic Structure• Economic Growth prospects• Fiscal Flexibility• General Government Debt burden• Offshore and contingent liabilities• Monetary Flexibility• External Liquidity• External Debt burden

S&P Sovereign Rating Criteria

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

It never rains but it …..

Wait for austerity to work?

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

Conditions for an effective fiscal pact in Eurozone- Central fiscal autonomy- Central monetary autonomy- Central budgeting across all nations- Central political leadership- Regional and sustainable electorate acquiescence to the above…

Break up the Euro?

Options & end Game ?

- Greek exit - P & I exit- Total break up

60% 30% 10%

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

CONFIDENCE ISWHAT YOU HAVE

BEFOREYOU UNDERSTAND

THE PROBLEM!

WOODY ALLEN, 1935 -

The deficit reduction and outlook

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

‘Funding-for- lending’ =$80b + confidence boost

“You should do the mathematics but then burn the paper and write it down in words.

Maths and models should be ‘aids to thinking’, not substitutes for it”.

Alfred Marshall [the founder of Cambridge economics]

A few dark clouds

-Eurozone-Tools to trade with-Retail businesses-BRIC slow down

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

UK economic outlook for the next 12-18 months

• Growth• Unemployment• Inflation• House prices• Fiscal environment• Consumer activity • Confidence

1% 2.6m +2% +2% Hold Muted Improving

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

Reasons to be cheerful ! • Collective will

• Forbearance• We are not in the Euro• Financial services will help GDP• Bank asset values• UK is seen as EU investment ‘safe haven’• Credit rating agencies approving UK• UK can cut expenditure and debt • George may fully wake up

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

What your firm can be doing

to prosper in the

current and future markets

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

•Vision•Strategy•Talent•Leadership

Future ready: 4 key Growth enablers

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

1. Where do you want your business to go?

2. Where are you now?3. What do you need to do to get

there?4. How can you do it?5. What are the opportunities (and

threats)6. What are the strengths (and

weaknesses)7. Who will make it happen....?

Your destination – defines your journey

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

The price challenge

Communicate & connect services to Value &

Outcomes

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

Enable & create change & innovation (a non negotiable culture)

• Challenge the team• Empower the team• Establish unambiguous actions

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

Service innovationsProduct innovations1. Treat your customers differently

– as well as better than anyone else

2. Present yourselves differently3. Create your Brand – knowingly4. Sharing and Giving5. Create discussions and projects

Five ways to differentiate your business

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“Some people change when they see the light, others only when they feel the heat.”

Anonymous

Achieving the Achievable

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June

Yes we can !

CCH UK Conference 2012: The Future Ready Firm London 21 June