cass sunstein - deliberating groups versus prediction markets (or hayek’s challenge to habermas)
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7/31/2019 Cass Sunstein - Deliberating Groups Versus Prediction Markets (or Hayeks Challenge to Habermas)
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E P I S E M E
C a s s R . S u n st e i n
Deliberating Groups versus Prediction Markets(or Hayeks Challenge to Habermas)
abstract
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Deliberating Groups versus Prediction Markets
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deliberating groups
I w, w : Groups are equialent to their best members. O w
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Te whole is the sum o the parts: aggregating inormation. D x w w w . S x q , x . O x,
zz w . D w j. I , w q w .
Improving on majority rule. S ,
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C R. S
50 . T C J Tw j w x 100 z . P w w j w
w w w . Te whole goes beyond the sum o the parts: synergy. T f w , w w . I , , , , w x w w .
w x w ? w .
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Deliberating Groups versus Prediction Markets
sources of deliberative failure
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C R. S
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habermas vs. hayek
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Deliberating Groups versus Prediction Markets
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deliberative failure 1: amplification of cognitive errors
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P f w q . W , w q w x .23 C, x, q w w , w , . I w z , w . O , , , , x .
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deliberative failure 2: hidden profiles and common
knowledge
S . E , w w z w . U, .33 H .H , , common-knowledge efect, w j w .34 T x , w ; w.
Hidden Profles. C w w , -- .35 T w w . R w . T w x w j . P w j, , . T , --, . A w w . T : T w w . M w . T w
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Deliberating Groups versus Prediction Markets
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Te Common-Knowledge Eect. T q -w , w j w.44 M , w w
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7/31/2019 Cass Sunstein - Deliberating Groups Versus Prediction Markets (or Hayeks Challenge to Habermas)
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C R. S
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deliberative failure 3: cascades
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Inormational Cascades. H ,w j. C , f . A , w w. A , .
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Deliberating Groups versus Prediction Markets
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C R. S
w w w w . O , j w 55 . 4-1 w x ( w B):56
able 4:1. An Inormational Cascade
1 2 3 4 5 6
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Reputational Cascades. I , w w , w , w w . S A w B w A, A , w , A, . I A B w , C , j,
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Deliberating Groups versus Prediction Markets
j . T w w w. I , $0.25; , $0.75.
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able 4:2. Conormity and Cascades
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deliberative failure 4: group polarization
T , , w- z, w members o a deliberating group endup adopting a more extreme ersion o the position toward which they tended beoredeliberation began.60 T - ,w x . Gz w , z , US, F, A, G.61 F x, w U S w x w. I, z F.62
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Deliberating Groups versus Prediction Markets
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prediction markets
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Potential and Promise. A .R , f w w. B , w . P w . B , , x,
w w w . A , ( ) w ; , , . T w . I
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Deliberating Groups versus Prediction Markets
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Feasibility, Markets, and Deliberation Once More. I . A j, x, q . A , j w w j, j, w w ( w, j w ). M
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Deliberating Groups versus Prediction Markets
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conclusion
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C R. S
acknowledgements
I C L f.
notes
1 I L. J, Groupthink, 2 . (B: H M , 1982), 79.2 I x C R. S, Why Societies
Need Dissent(C, M.: H U P, 2003), C R. S,Inotopia: How Many Minds Aggregate Knowledge (Nw Y: Ox U P,2006); I w .
3 C R. S, D S, L E, I V F C A: A P I, Virginia Law Reiew 90 (2004): 301.
4 S D J,
Oercondence and War: Te Haoc and Glory o Positie Illusions (C, M.:H U P, 2004): 18083.5 R Bw, Social Psychology, 2 . (Nw Y: F P, 1986): 2067.6 I.7 C H R Gzz, I w O I D C
N D Q: E I C Vw ID M, Organizational Behaior and Human Decision Processes 61 (1995): 305.
8 S R B ., S C O Ex, Journal oExperimental Social Psychology 32 (1996): 537.
9
D G R H, P A A G J,Psychological Bulletin 121 (1997): 149, 161; R H, Ex E GA, Inormation Pooling and Group Decision Making, . B G,G Ow, . (Gw, C.: JAI P, 1986), 129.
10 R J. MC, C M M R, Judgments, Decisions,and Public Policy, . Rj Gw J Fx (C: C UP, 2002), 116, 121.
11 I.12 J. S A, C F, Principles o Forecasting, . J. S
A (B: Kw A, 2001), 433.13 S S, Why Societies Need Dissent.14 C C A A, M D M, Decision Making
in Health Care, . G C F S (Nw Y: CU P, 2000), 267, 27376.
15 R L. T, T E D C G D:W F Mj I I Aw F, Journal o Social Psychology 9(1938): 343.
16 See J H, Bw F N: An Authors Reections, 76 Denv. U. L.Rev. 937, 940 (1999).
17 See J H, W U P?, Communication and theEolution o Society 1, 24, 32 (T MC ., 1979) ( ).
18 See A G D T, Democracy and Disagreements (C,M: H U P, 1997), 78 (
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).19 Seegenerally F.A. H, T U Kw S, 35 Am. Econ. Rev. 519 (1945)
( w ).20 For an overview, see Tomas Gilovich, Dale Grif n, and Daniel Kahneman, Heuristics and
Biases: Te Psychology of Intuitive Judgment(New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002).21 A D K, J U: H
B, Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, . D K, PS, A (C: C U P), 1982, 3.
22 P Rz C N, S M T: T C S H, G, G , K,Heuristics and Biases . 201
23 K, J U, 3.24 MC, C M M R, 116, 121.25 M F. S ., G C A C B , Japanese
Psychological Research 30 (1988): 68.
26 S N L. K ., B J: C I G,Psychology Reiew 103 (1996): 687, 689, 69193.
27 J A. Sz R A. H, A C G J,Organizational Behaior and Human Decision Processes 43 (1989): 1. T x -, x w. S DJ, Oercondence and War,18083.
28 Ew L. S W. C. T, E A A JU S E ( , 1989).
29 G W, E C I G D M,
Organizational Behaior and Human Decision Processes 54 (1993): 430.30 J W. G J C. Mw, I P RP Nw P I ,Journal o Applied Psychology 65 (1980):715; J R. Iw J H. D, C/M P R G,Organizational Behaior and Human Decision Processes 64 (1995): 325.
31 W, E C, 430.32 S ., G C A, 68.33 G S W , H P: A B H,Psychological Inquiry
14 (2003): 304.34
D G R H, T C Kw E: I S G J,Journal o Personality and Social Psychology 65 (1993): 959.35 S R Hw L S, T I C-M
C S B G D, Computers in Human Behaior11(1995): 33.
36 P W, Te Psychology o the Internet(C: C U P,1999), 82.
37 S G S W , P U I GD M: B I S D,Journal o Personalityand Social Psychology 48 (1985): 1467.
38 I., 1473; S , H P, 304.39 S , P U I, 1473.40 I., 1476.41 I.
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C R. S42 I.43 S , H P, 305.44 S D G R H, T C Kw E: I
S G J,Journal o Personality and Social Psychology 65 (1993): 959.45 I., 960.46 I., 973.47 S G S ., I S S U D
T Sx-P G, Journal o Personality and Social Psychology 57 (1989):67.
48 I., 78.49 I., 72.50 I w D H, T B L B, Te New Economics
o Human Behaior, . M K I (C: CU P, 1995), 188, 19394.
51 I., 195.52 S ; S, Why Societies Need Dissent.53 S L A C H, I C L,American
Economic Reiew 87 (1997): 847.54 S A H C P, I C: R Ex
Mj R C-Rw I,American Economic Reiew 91(2001): 1508, 1515.
55 T, 72 j w B L A C H,I C L,American Economic Reiew 87 (1997): 847,
64 M W A Z, A M I A A S I C L? Te Economics o Networks: Interaction andBehaiours, . P C . (Nw Y: S, 1998), 291, 304.
56 S W Z, A M I A, 291.57 S A H, I C L, 847.58 S H P, I C, 151517.59 I., 1516.60 R Bw, Social Psychology: Te Second Edition (Nw Y, N.Y.: F P, 1986),
2067.61
I., 204.62 I., 224.63 I.64 S, S, E, I V, 301.65 S D S ., D D: T S Sf, Columbia Law
Reiew 100 (2000): 101.66 Bw, Social Psychology, 20045.67 I. I j
w w, , , w , . S RB ., S C O Ex,Journal o Experimental andSocial Psychology, 32 (1996), 537.
68 B ., S C, 537.69 I.
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Deliberating Groups versus Prediction Markets70 I C L ;
.71 F w, J W E Zzwz, P M,Journal
o Economic Perspecties 18 (2004): 107; M Awz, I M,A D, P C-B A, Uniersity o
Chicago Law Reiew 71 (2004): 933; S L, S E M R R,Journal o Corporation Law 28 (2003): 589.
72 F w, D M. P ., T R Pw A M, 291S 987 (2001); D M. P ., T Pw P: E FA W M G, NEC R I R 1000-168(2001). A w ://www../
73 S R W. H & P C. , Harnessing the Power o Inormation: A NewApproach to Economic Deelopment4 (AEI-B J C. F R S,W P N. 04-21, 2004), ://www.-.//
.?=846.74 S R H, D R F (A 2005), ://
...75 R R, Orange Juice and Weather, 74 A. E. R. 861, 871 (1984).76 S W & Zzwz,supra 207, 11314.77 S K-Y C & C R. P, Inormation Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept,
Design, and Implementation or a Sales Forecasting Problem 3 (D. H &S. S., C. I. ., S S W P N. 113, M 2002) ( Hw-P), ://www...
/SSP/w1131..78 S P Cw W W, ://../2005/09/-w-w--w.
79 S R W. H P C. , U I M I DM,Harard Journal o Law and Public Policy 29, N. 1 (F 2005): 213-289.
80 M Awz, P M, A D, PC-B A, Uniersity o Chicago Law Reiew 71 (2004), 933.
81 S J A. S, W M G B G, H B Rw(S. 2002).
82
S B H, P F: I C Nw Ow S(P: P U P, 2006, ).
Cass R. Sunstein K N. Lw D S P, Lw S D P S, U C. H Inotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge (Ox U P, 2006) Worst-Case Scenarios (H U P, 2007).
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