capitalvue - china in numbers - macro update - march 2013

CapitalVue Research Analytics Macro and Industrial Data

China in Numbers – Macro Update, March 2013

Credit Outpaces GDP Growth, Consumption Contributes More to Growth

Social Financing Hits All-Time High, Loan Growth Lags

Inflation Falls, PMI Hits 11-Month High

Exports Increase, Along with Questions

Income Growth Declines

Investment vs. Consumption

Property Continues to Rebound

The Li Keqiang Index – Loans, Electricity Use, Rail Freight

Capital Markets, Capital Supplies, Exchange Rates

Key Data : NBS, NDRC, China Customs, Brokers, CapitalVue

1

A select sample brought to you by Analytics@CapitalVue.com

2

7.70

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13

GDP, left Total Financing, 3 month avg

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13

Exports Investment Consumption GDP growth

3

0%

50%

100%

150%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

Total Social Financing (left) Loan proportion of total

37%

6%

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

Total Financing Loans

6.15

0

2

4

6

8

2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1

15.70

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

4

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

PPI CPI Core CPI Food CPI

5

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

Trade Balance, $Mn (right) Exports Imports

6

7

16.40

0

20

40

60

80

8

67

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13

9

9.20

0

4

8

12

16

20

Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13

10

11

12

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