cape town’s experience - saboa - brt, city of cape town, ms k... · mitchells plain khaye-litsha...
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Presentation to SABOA
10th March 2016
Cape Town’s Experience
Keresha Naidoo
.
Presentation outline
1. City’s IPTN 2032
2. Phase 1A
3. City’s Intervention – Moderation process
– Optimisation process
4. Key lessons learnt and intervention for future phases
.
1. IPTN 2032 Status quo & data
collection
5 IRPTN Network Alternatives
2030?
Develop a land
use model:
current
Develop
a
transport
model:
base year
2012
IPTN preferred
network
5 IPTN Alternatives
2030 Alternatives
Understanding
Land Use and
Transport Patterns
Evaluation
Framework
Preferred network,
operations and
prioritisation of
components
Status Quo and
Lessons Learnt
Demand and Cost Modelling:
Future 2030
Economic, Social,
Environmental and
Transport Evaluation
Status quo & data
collection
High Level
Operational
Plan
Implementatio
n Plan
Develop a land
use model:
future
.
1. IPTN 2032 COMPONENTS
1. Rail 2. BRT trunks 3. Supporting feeder services
.
1. IPTN 2032 COMPONENTS
Residential Non -Residential
4. More Transit Orientated Development (TOD) type Land-use plan
Atlantis
Table View / Du Noon
Century City
Inner City & Sea Point
Airport
Mitchells Plain
Khaye-litsha
Camps Bay
Hout Bay
Current MyCiTi services – Phase 1 and N2 Express
- 37 Routes - 4 dedicated
trunks - 33 feeder
routes - 42 bus stations
and 500+ bus stops
- 227 Peak busses – 509 drivers
- 64000 weekday passengers
- 4 Operators - 3 (12 year
contracts) - 1 (3 year
contract)
18m
12m
9m
Atlantis
Table View / Du Noon
Century City
Inner City & Sea Point
Airport
Mitchells Plain
Khaye-litsha
Camps Bay
Hout Bay
Current MyCiTi services – Phase 1 and N2 Express
.
Presentation outline
1. City’s IPTN 2032
2. Phase 1A Financial Bottom line
3. City’s Intervention – Moderation process
– Balancing the books for Phase 1 and N2 Express
4. Key lessons learnt and intervention for future phases
.
Moderation & Optimisation phases
.
Moderation process What did we do? Detailed analysis:
120 items costed /ranked
.
Moderation process Examples of tools and measures
1. Route by route analysis and demand and supply verification 2. Analysis of Station Management costs
– Reducing staff at stations (doors, PIDs, queuing), reduced kiosk hours linked to loads
3. Cost reductions resulting from improved bus: driver ratios 4. Reducing recovery/cycle times - improving signaling and
infrastructure changes 5. Developing strategies for improved TDM in the short – medium term
– Increasing peak-of-peak fare and shortening duration of peak period – Concept of peak capping
6. Conceptualisation of hybrid MyCiTi-minibus-taxi model – Investigating retaining minibus-taxi services in periods where the level of
public transport demand and associated financial viability does not warrant all day fully scheduled service
7. Improved law enforcement to reduce illegal minibus-taxi operations, accompanied by synchronised marketing and promotion.
Red text = examples summarised in following slides
• Weekday cycle times all longer than timetabled. • Very peaked demand in weekday AM peak. • PM peak demand approx. half of the AM peak demand. • Low inter-peak demand. Almost zero evening demand after 19:30. • Only 20% pax boarding on residential loop • Low weekend demand, less than 40% of weekday demand. • Significant minibus taxi competition • Revenue/Cost ratio: 36%
Route 103 example
Route 103 example
1. Amend headways
Route 103 Proposals
05:30 - 06:00 06:00 - 09:00 09:00 - 13:00 13:00 - 15:30 15:30 - 19:00 19:00 - 20:00 20:00 - 21:30
Existing 20 5 22 23 5 20 20
Proposed 103 14 28 19 14 60 60
Proposed 103a 16 34
Combined headway 7 10
Operational Input ValuesWeekday
Headway (min)
06:00 - 09:00 09:00 - 15:00 15:00 - 19:00 19:00 - 21:30 07:00 - 09:00 09:00 - 15:00 15:00 - 19:00 19:00 - 21:30
Existing 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Proposed 103 60 30 30 60 60 60 60 60
Proposed 103a
Operational Input ValuesSaturday Sunday & PH
Headway (min)
103: Oranjezicht
103a:
Civic Gardens
14 min headway
16 min headway
Combined headway of 7 min
1. Last bus departs at 21:00 on all days.
2. Operate short-turn buses (103a) in the weekday AM and PM peak periods between Civic and Gardens.
3. Strategy related to minibus taxis in peak & off-peak to be developed and implemented
4. Results in a saving of R1 609 745 per annum
Route 103 Proposals
Travel Demand Measures (TDM) - MyCiTi peak capping, and incentivising off peak travel (tariff structure)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Previous peak periods: 2 hours
06:30-08:30 16:00-18:00
06:45-08:00 16:15-17:30
September 2014 data Time of day
Passenger boardings by time of day
MyCiTi peak capping, and incentivising off peak travel
Targeting ‘the peak of the peak’
• Increase peak-to-off-peak differential: 35%
• Reduced peak period • Implemented from July 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Service frequency
Current frequency (illustrative) Proposed frequency (illustrative)
Time of day (illustrative)
Freq
uen
cy o
f b
use
s (
illu
stai
tive
)
Service frequency and passenger boarding
MyCiTi peak capping, and incentivising off peak travel
Moderation process
Impact on expenditure
* Beginning of Moderation implementation
* Excludes fuel price savings * No rollout from Oct-14 to Jun-15
R 25 000 000
R 27 000 000
R 29 000 000
R 31 000 000
R 33 000 000
R 35 000 000
R 37 000 000
R 39 000 000
R 41 000 000
R 43 000 000
Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
Comparison of 2014/15 Unmoderated vs Moderated Expenditure 14/15 UnmoderatedExpenditure
14/15 ModeratedExpenditure
Moderation measures (cont.)
Impact on revenue
* correction applied to Jun-15 due to known loss of revenue data
*
* Excludes savings due to lower fuel price * No new services from Oct-14 to Jun-15
Comparison of Kilometre Allocations & Revenue
VOC
12 Yr Contract Pre-moderation - Sep 14 Post-moderation - Nov 14 July 15
Peak buses
Projected
km % Guarante
ed km Guarante
ed % Peak
buses Actual
km % Peak buses
Actual km % Peak
buses Actual
km %
TPI 106 353 382 32.6% 265 037 75.0% 85 412 038 37.5% 65 294 950 32.8% 63 306 042 27.7%
Kidrogen 133 513 420 47.4% 385 065 75.0% 64 405 136 36.9% 64 339 025 37.7% 71 453 194 41.0%
TBRT 49 216 267 20.0% 151 387 70.0% 46 280 606 25.6% 48 265 142 29.5% 62 345 799 31.3%
Total 288 1 083 069 100.00% 801 488 195 1 097 780 100.00% 177 899 117 100.00% 196 1 105 035 100.00%
-9.2% -18.1% reduction 0.5% 0.7% increase
Revenue
R 10 565 445
R 10 246 687 -3.0%
R 12 588 600
*VOC Costs
R 31 614 562
R 28 344 800 -10.3%
R 33 600 155
R/C Ratio
33.4%
36.2%
37.5%
1. Revenue : cost ratio improvements ongoing 2. Despite signif. roll-outs in July 15, monthly kms similar to pre-moderation 3. Revenue reduced by 3% from Sep-14 to Nov 14 4. N2 Express not included as not moderated
Moderation process
Impact on revenue : cost ratio
*Total monthly VOC costs (incl. depot maintenance, security, events, provisions)
.
Moderation & Optimisation phases
Category 1: easy to achieve and / or
low passenger impact • Improving competitiveness of MyCiTi services by amending routes to allow more
direct travel (slides to follow) • Review of planning for Phase 1B services and adopting new approaches to
integration with provincially contracted bus operator (GABS) in Phase 1B (slides to follow)
• Resolve AFC data problems to drive higher revenue • Resolve re fare losses due to technology issues - e.g. load shedding, emergency
buttons used to circumvent fares, gates down • Detailed analysis of routes to reduce peak buses, but maintain current service
standards • Further optimisation of routes to tailor services to demand (e.g. reduce under-
utilised trips in off peak), but maintain adequate standards • Introduce night service routes throughout system from 8pm to improve evening
services on busy route segments • Introduce further trunk extensions • Increase advertising revenue • Review retail concession offerings • Implement fare system Vending Machines (Include technology associated with cell
phones) • Reallocate kms to VOC with lower operating rates • Implement partial off-peak closure of stations
Category 2: Moderately difficult to achieve and/or with moderate passenger impact
• Introduce night service type routes on Sundays where appropriate • Reduce driver to bus ratio from 2.07 to 1.9 • Peak sharing of buses between routes • Infrastructure interventions to improve traffic congestion bottlenecks and
reduce required recovery time • Review 12m and 18m bus fuel consumption & maintenance rates • Negotiate financial contribution from private companies benefitting from
services (eg Century City, Atlantis Industria, etc) • Improve passenger transfer efficiency • Reduce station management costs by 5% • Further tariff increases • Re-negotiate VOC rates • Parking Fees • Increased penalties levied • Aggressive marketing and advertising linked to hybrid approach • Undertake enforcement of illegal taxis, and related industry transition
measures
Optimisation process: (i) Improving competitiveness of MyCiTi services by amending routes to allow more direct travel – LEARNING LESSONS
• Understanding user preference for modal choice – Surveys undertaken by Communications show passenger
perceptions: • Mismatched origin-destinations (O-D’s) • Longer waiting times & less capacity on MyCiTi • The barrier of the myconnect card
• ‘Onboard surveys’ of minibus-taxi services undertaken of passenger O-D’s
• Route extensions and amendments proposed to improve competiveness of MyCiTi services and increase revenue – 112: Trunk extension – 101&103: Route amendments – 115: Kloof Street - Adderley – Waterfront
112: Trunk extension Surveyed Taxi Passenger O-D’s along Somerset Rd
Average 2hr peak period weekday minibus-taxi volume in forward direction: 1921 pax Average 2hr peak period weekday MyCiTi volume in forward direction: 1169 pax, with 270 pax additional unutilised capacity
T02 extension
112: Trunk extension Surveyed Taxi Passenger O-D’s from Adderley/Strand to Seapoint along Somerset Road
Optimisation process: ii.) New approaches to integration with provincially contracted bus
operator (GABS) in Phase 1B
• Original approach to Phase 1 was to replace all current operators with MyCiTi services – however: Lessons learned from Phase 1 – A complementary mix of BRT services and existing scheduled bus
services is required, which combines s(41) ‘MyCiTi services’ with s(46) ‘existing contracted services’
• City seeking to retain some GABS services in Phase 1B area, and integrate with them with MyCiTi services
• Is it important that this thinking is implemented as soon as possible: 1. to ensure that integrated PT is achieved in Cape Town, achieving
efficiencies and reducing operating deficit of two systems existing together
2. to test integration model with existing services
3. Test application before embarking on Phase 2
Route
260
261
262
263
264
Phase 1A R/C average = 45%
Phase 1b services
Proposed that GABS services remain in Richwood, Bothasig and Edgemead
Existing scheduled s(46) bus services
in Phase 1b area
Route Trips per day
Edgemead – City 15 trips
City – Edgemead 20 trips
Summer Greens – City 12 trips
City – Summer Greens 6 trips
Bothasig – City 5 trips
City - Bothasig 5 trips Salt River – Bothasig 1 trip
Century City – City 7 trips
City – Century City 1 trip
Richwood – City 7 trips
City – Richwood 8 trips
• Proposed these existing services remain.
• Need to ensure integration between MyCiTi (s41) and existing scheduled services (s46).
• Significant challenges without Contracting Assignment
New approaches to integration with
provincially contracted bus operator
(GABS) • Original approach to Phase 1 was to replace all current operators with
MyCiTi services – however: Lessons learned from Phase 1 – A complementary mix of BRT services and existing scheduled bus services is
required, which combines s(41) ‘MyCiTi services’ with s(46) ‘existing contracted services’
• Once Contracting Authority is assigned, services envisaged to co-exist under TCT branding, and during transitional period will change incrementally over time into a single high quality MyCiTi type service – Trunks will be provided by BRT type services in dedicated rights of way to improve
efficiencies – Feeder services will be drawn largely from current services
• Integrated ticketing, unified branding, and quality control measures will ensure integration between the two types of contracted services during the transitional period
• Integrated transport solution for s(41) and s(46) contracts requires integration of funding sources, especially operational funding (PTOG & PTNG) – urgently Requires assignment of Contracting Authority function, for Phase 1b AND Phase 2
Practical examples of desirable actions
effectively prevented by failure to assign
contracting function and associated PTOG • City has insufficient leverage to ensure
– Fare integration cash/clipcard to smartcard AFC system – System integration: routes of provincially subsidised services cannot be
optimally aligned with MyCiTi routes – Service quality standards: appropriate contractual mechanisms not in
place to ensure high quality of service – Vehicle livery and branding : Unified branding can only take place
when the above criteria are met – Vehicle
• Allocating MyCiTi 9m vehicles to GABS: Option – unpack costs • Re-capitalisation: ensuring appropriate bus types are purchased to enable s(46)
contracted service to use MyCiTi infrastructure in future, needed to dock at stations; and provide universal access
– Changing GABS services: financial risks – determine before action – Could add efficiencies to GABS services (for improved services at the
same level of subsidy): eg passing lanes etc
.
Some key lessons learned • Operational financial sustainability
is essential – If not financially sustainable – then
must reconfigure system to make it sustainable (may entail cutting services)
• …but difficult to achieve in SA cities – due to – Apartheid urban form – Long distances – Tidal and very peak movement – Low income levels
• Current Phase 1 and N2 Express services – Initially very large operating deficit –
How to address? – Short term: Moderation – Medium to Long Term: Optimisation,
improving efficiencies and revenue enhancement
.
Some key lessons learned • Operational financial sustainability
is essential – If not financially sustainable – then
must reconfigure system to make it sustainable (may entail cutting services)
• …but difficult to achieve in SA cities – due to – Apartheid urban form – Long distances – Tidal and very peak movement – Low income levels
• Current Phase 1 and N2 Express services – Initially very large operating deficit –
How to address? – Short term: Moderation – Medium to Long Term: Optimisation,
improving efficiencies and revenue enhancement
Approach towards future phases • Cape Town cannot afford a City-wide
system built on Phase 1 principles • Change BRT model towards TOD/TDM
and integrated hybrid design – TOD = incremental over long time to
change urban form and demand patterns – But , everything we do must incentivise it
• Design for flexibility
• On high demand trunks and core feeders (TOD corridors) – better efficiency BRT
– stations on trunk corridors – built and run only as and when they are required
– choose bus types that lower operating cost per passenger
– comparative advantage over other modes – Seat renewal and bi-directional demand
• Review feeder service model – Design a hybrid solution between BRT
and minibus-taxis – Incremental changes to improve current
scheduled transport services
.
Approach towards future phases
Review of Feeder service model
– Integrated public transport service model • Role of ‘traditional’ bus services
• Role Mini-bus taxi services (Ph1 and Ph2A)
– Greater focus on feeder priority measures
– Bigger feeder buses
– Universal Access standards
– Park & Ride facilities
.
Approach towards future phases
Infrastructure provision
• Station types: Mixture of open and closed stations – Reduce operational cost linked to closed stations
– Increase closed station spacing
– Incremental implementation
– Only when demand achieves a threshold then Closed station can be provided • Requires flexibility within the design to come back and construct a closed station if required
System Optimisation
• Route short turns to align more accurately with demand
• Improved fleet utilisation – Buses can be used on different routes to maximise utilisation
• More extensive use of Trunk Extensions or Complementary services. – Where trunks penetrate feeder area
• Reduces need for transfer
• Reduces feeder fleet size
• Express services
Long term – aggressively encourage more TOD
• Property development in prioritised station precincts
• Commercialisation
THANK
YOU
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