canes wp 1 eu policy development - renewable energy policy måns nilsson, policy & institutions...

CANES WP 1EU policy development

- renewable energy policy

Måns Nilsson, Policy & Institutions Programme, Stockholm Environment Institute

Lars J Nilsson and Karin Ericsson, IMES, Lunds Tekniska Högskola

What we set out to find out

• What are the major European policy developments in the promotion of renewable sources of energy (RES-E) and what are its intended effects on different industries, countries, and environmental performance?

• To what extent has past and historical patterns of policy development framed, shaped or influenced RES-E policy?

• What interest groups, EC organizations, Member States or other powers have been the most influential in shaping the recent policy development and through what means?

• What does past and current influences and patterns of policy development suggest in terms of future European RES-E policy?

Theoretical basis

Basis

for prediction

Plausible

mechanisms

Heuristic aid to define variables and factors

An overall perspective on policy change

Organizational fields– Dynamic relations within and between organizational actors– Mechanisms from internal and external factors explaining public

policy change– Field dynamics: organizations within fields start to resemble

each other

Norms

Knowledge

Energy Production Field

Industrial User FieldInfrastructure Field

Internal Market Field

Rules

KnowledgeKnowledgeKnowledge

Rules

Rules Rules

Norms

NormsNorms

Org. relations

Org. relationsOrg. relations

Org. relations

Advocacy Coalitions

A1

A2

A3

A5A4

– Policy actors held together by common core beliefs– Engaging strategically in decision making to get

support for their view– Policy learning major mechanism of long term change– Dominant coalitions determine policy in short term

Garbage-can / stream decision making

• Problems, solutions and politics in parallel streams• Windows of opportunity emerge largely unpredictable as

streams converge

By how many percentage points will the EU and Member States over- or undershoot their burden sharing targets in

2010 with existing domestic policies and measures?

1.3%

5.6%7.5%

9.5%10.2%10.7%12.1%14.0%

16.5%

22.9%24.5%

26.8%

33.3%

37.8%

-1.4%-3.3%

S UK D LUX EU F I GR NL POR FIN B A IRL E DKJ

L

EU-15 CO2-utsläpp 2010

Source: EC DG-ENVIRONMENT

The Road Ahead

Europeiska Rådet, mars 2007, två mål sattes: 1. 20% minskning av GHG till 2020 – eller 30% beroende

på andra länder2. 20% andel förnybar energi i EUs energianvändning 2020

Kommissionens paketet 202020 framlades 23 januari 2008:• ”Det mest omfattande policyförslaget i Europas historia”• Rådsbeslut Mars 2009• COP i Köpenhamn December 2009

Ökat tryck på förnybar energi– 10% biobränslen i

transporter– Bindande

nationella mål mot 20%

– Certifikatsystem över hela EU (”GOs”)

AT -16.0% 34% BE -15.0% 13% BG 20.0% 16% CY -5.0% 13% CZ 9.0% 13% DK -20.0% 30% EE 11.0% 25% FI -16.0% 38% FR -14.0% 23% DE -14.0% 18% EL -4.0% 18% HU 10.0% 13% IE -20.0% 16% IT -13.0% 17% LV 17.0% 42% LT 15.0% 23% LU -20.0% 11% MT 5.0% 10% NL -16.0% 14% PL 14.0% 15% PT 1.0% 31% RO 19.0% 24% SK 13.0% 14% SI 4.0% 25% ES -10.0% 20% SE -17.0% 49% UK -16.0% 15%

RES-E 2008: Reduction targets and share of renewables in energy use

Target levels for EU Member States – closely linked to their GDP

Renewables target relative to existing capacity – and traded volume if all Member States deliver the same

target level

Four linked political dynamics that will shape RES-E policy

development in the future

/preliminary/

1. The Policy Window

• “The historical importance and chance to be taken”

• 2005: Energy leaps from environmental minister to Head of State level

– Climate Change– Russia – Ukraine

• Backlashes inevitable (eg biofuels)

2. New configuration of interests

A) Fields are breaking up?• First producers and industrial consumers block

(against regulators) has broken up (1990s)• Second, major industry branches like power

industry or WWF (in a sense) breaking up • Third, sectors breaking up, with for instance

Nordic pulp and paper having different interests from the southern European industries. Or German power producers having different interests from Nordic ones?

B) New and future coalition formations • The game is dynamic and unpredictable, alliances

forming and reforming across previous enemy lines etc.• Multilevel actions and interactions: COM, MS;

INDUSTRY, MEP – all intricately linked and also shaping and reshaping alliances in only partly predictable ways

• Does the resistance against GO (such as Germany) also coincide with resistance against unbundling? Are there alliances that are more coherent than we first might think. Spain, France, Germany, Austria on one end and Sweden, Denmark, Belgium etc on the other?

3. The battle between national interest and internal market

• Handling of incompatible support systems– Feed in tariffs i 18 MS – quota systems in 7 MS– Internal market and Guarantees of Origin

• Dominance of the national state interest vs the internal market ( in this round)...

• TREN is navigating towards protection of national interests – strong countries aligning

• BUT! Unlikely to be persistent in the long run…

Incompatible with internal market?

• Certificate /quota systems– Sverige– Belgien– Storbrittannien– Italien– Lettland– Polen– Rumänien

• Feed-in tariffs– Österrike– Denmark– Estland– Frankrike– Tyskland– Grekland– Ungern– Irland– Litauen– Luxemburg– Nederländerna– Portugal– Slovakien– Slovenien– Spanien

4. Uncertainty and conflict in bioenergy supply

• Environmental movements divided

• Food crisis and land competition

• Incompatible with resource constraints?– Biofuels targets likely to lose ground– Sustainability criteria likely to gain ground

• Links to CAP developments– Effects from renewable energy on land use

and specifically bioenergy from agriculture

5. Other future issues: domestic

• Political leadership globally and EU– What will Merkel and Sarkozy do?– What happens in Great Britain?

• New revenues – how to spend it– ETS II: 50-75 Billion Euros per year– Whose money is it?– Climate-adapted development aid or innovation

support to European industry?

• Technology shifting / innovation systems– The whip is in place but where are the carrots?

5. Other future issues: foreign

• EU coordinating infrastructure and policy instruments w neighbours

• Southern technical cooperation • Russia – a starting point for the new energy

policy, supply security, fossil gas interest?• Relation to oil countries• Energy trade regulated under WTO• Border adjustments of taxes onto WTO agenda• Integration of climate in development aid