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Cambridge Judge Business School
CAMBRIDGE CENTRE FOR RISK STUDIES RESEARCH OVERVIEW
Professor Daniel Ralph, Academic Director
Centre for Risk Studies
Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies 2017 Risk Summit
CRS Dissemination and Engagement Activities■ 2017 Global Risk Index Launch (London)■ 2017 Cyber Risk Landscape Seminar in
collaboration with RMS (London & New York)■ Helios Solar Storm
o Scenario Launch in collaboration with AIG (London)
o European Space Weather Week (Belgium)■ Global Exposure Accumulation and Clash
Workshop in collaboration with RMS (London)■ Cambridge CRO Council “Leading Ideas in
Risk” Roundtable■ Risks and Benefits of Artificial Intelligence and
Robotics in collaboration with UN■ UK Cabinet Office Workshops
o Multi Threat Analysiso National Risk Register
Project Activities in 2016-17
Cambridge Global Risk Index 2017Integrated risk assessment to global economy from 22 threats
Solar Storm Risk Helios scenario of economic impact of large solar storm on US economy
Marine Insurance RiskExtreme scenarios for RDS of vessel loss
Impacts of Terrorism Events on City EconomiesParis attack study
NatCat FinCatFinancial market impacts from extreme natural catastrophe events
Cyber Risk Landscape 2017Recent cyber attack trends and implications for business risk
Cyber TerrorismAssessment of the threat to insurance of cyber attacks from terrorist organisations
Report in preparation
GEAC Consultation DocumentsDevelopment of Multiline Insurance Exposure Data Schema
Insurance Growth Opportunity and Risk AssessmentIntegrated risk assessment to global economy from 22 threats
Beyond NatCat: Cambridge Taxonomy of Threats
Famine
Water Supply Failure
Refugee Crisis
Welfare System Failure
Child Poverty
Hum
anita
rian
Cris
is
Aid
Cat
Meteorite
Solar Storm
Satellite System Failure
Ozone Layer Collapse
Space Threat
Exte
rnal
ity
Spac
eCat
Oth
er
Nex
tCat
Labour Dispute
Trade Sanctions
Tariff War
Nationalization
Cartel Pressure
Trad
e D
ispu
te
Trad
eCat
Conventional War
Asymmetric War
Nuclear War
Civil War
External Force
Geo
polit
ical
Con
flict
Terrorism
Separatism
SocialUnrest
Assassination
Organized Crime
Polit
ical
Vio
lenc
e
Earthquake
Windstorm
TsunamiFloodVolcanic Eruption
Nat
ural
Cat
astr
ophe
Nat
Cat
Drought
Freeze
HeatwaveElectric Storm
Tornado & Hail
Clim
atic
Cat
astr
ophe
Wea
ther
Cat Sea Level Rise
Ocean System Change
Atmospheric System Change
Pollution Event
WildfireEnvi
ronm
enta
l Cat
astr
ophe
EcoC
at
Nuclear Meltdown
Industrial Accident
Infrastructure Failure
Technological Accident
Cyber Catastrophe
Tech
nolo
gica
l Cat
astr
ophe
Human Epidemic
Animal Epidemic
Plant Epidemic
ZoonosisWaterborne Epidemic
Dis
ease
Out
brea
k
Asset Bubble
Financial Irregularity
Bank Run
Sovereign Default
Market Crash
Fina
ncia
l Sho
ck
War
Cat
Hat
eCat
Tech
Cat
Hea
lthC
atFi
nCat
CatastronomicsGDP@Risk as a metric for comparing impacts
50
55
60
65
70
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Crisis GDP Trajectory
GDP@Risk
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Current Research Tracks
A. Emerging and Systemic RisksContinuing the research into individual threats, developing scenarios, and improving the understanding of emerging and rapidly changing risks.
B. Integrated Risk AssessmentUpdating, improving, and extending the framework, datasets, and analytics of the Cambridge Global Risk Outlook, developing standardized risk metrics for multiple threats to the global economy.
C. Use Cases of ResearchAligning the research activities and outputs to business decisions and practical applications in improving risk management practices in business and policy-making.
Cyber Risk Research at CCRS
SybilLogic Bomb
US CyberBlackout
Exposure DataSchema
AccumulationScenarios
UK CyberBlackout
CyberTerrorism
Cloud Service Provider Failure(‘Cloud Compromise’)
Ransomware(‘Extortion Spree’)
Financial Theft(‘Cyber Heist’)
Denial of Service Attack(‘Mass DDoS’)
Data Exfiltration(‘Leakomania’)
Cyber attack on Marine Cargo Port(‘Port Management System’)
Cyber Attack on Oil Rigs(‘Phishing-Triggered Explosions’)
Cyber Attack on Industrial Chemical Plant(‘ICS Attack’)
Cyber attack on Commercial Office Buildings(Laptop batteries fire induction’)
Cyber Attack on UK Power Distribution(‘Integrated Infrastructure’)
Cyber Attack on US Power Generation(‘Business Blackout’) * v1.1
Information TechnologyLoss Processes
Operations TechnologyScenarios of Asset Damage
Malware(‘Sybil Logic Bomb’’)
Research into Critical National Infrastructure Risk
A major systemic risk is the failure of the infrastructure on which modern businesses depend
This has been a key focus for our research over the past few years
Current research includes:– Mapping the Wide Area
Synchronous Grids of the world– Interdependencies of
infrastructure layers– Vulnerabilities and potential
failures
Cambridge Global Risk Index for Top 300 Cities
300 Cities22 Threats
$1.17 Trillion of GDP@Risk a year
Nuc
lear
Acc
iden
t
Pow
er O
utag
e
Cyb
er A
ttack
Sola
r Sto
rm
Hum
an P
ande
mic
Plan
t Epi
dem
ic
Sepa
ratis
m C
onfli
ct
Mar
ket C
rash
Sove
reig
n C
risis
Com
mod
ity P
rices
Terr
oris
m
Inte
rsta
te C
onfli
ct
Soci
al U
nres
t
Earth
quak
e
Trop
ical
Win
dsto
rm
Tsun
ami
Floo
d
Dro
ught
Free
ze
Hea
twav
e
Win
dsto
rm
Volc
anic
Eru
ptio
n
Annual Average Cost of
Catastrophe is 1-2% of
GDP:2017 Risk
Index
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Market Crash
Interstate Conflict
Wind Storm
Human Pandemic
Earthquake
Flood
Cyber Attack
Separatism Conflict
Sovereign Crisis
Commodity Prices
Terrorism
Drought
Power Outage
Volcanic Eruption
Plant Epidemic
Solar Storm
Social Unrest
Temperate Wind Storm
Freeze
Heatwave
Nuclear Accident
Tsunami
Increase from 2015
Decrease from 2015
GDP@Risk ($Bn)0 20 40 60 80 100
Market CrashInterstate Conflict
Wind StormHuman Pandemic
EarthquakeFlood
Cyber AttackSeparatism Conflict
Sovereign CrisisCommodity Prices
TerrorismDrought
Power OutageVolcanic Eruption
Plant EpidemicSolar Storm
Social UnrestTemperate Wind
FreezeHeatwave
Nuclear AccidentTsunami
Risk of Ruin: Impact of Trillion Dollar Scenarios on Global Economy 1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
10000001 10 100
Finance, Economics & Trade Risks
Geopolitics & Security
Technology & Space
Natural Catastrophe & Climate
Health & Humanity
Global GDP Loss in $US trillion
ReturnPeriod(Years)
$1tr events have an 8 year return period $10tr events have an 47 year return period $16tr events have a 100 year return period $22tr events have a 200 year return period8yr
47yr
200yr
100yr
1tr 10tr 16tr 22tr
Level 4interstate conflict between China & India
Global virulent pandemic
Major global market crash
Solar storm impacting North America & Europe
Worst case hurricane season NE USA
Mt Fuji Eruption at VEI VII
Application of Key Use Cases for a Range of Audiences
Private sector companies and corporations
Financial services, investors, insurers, and bankers
Public sector authorities, governments, regulators
Geopolitical ConflictEmerging Risk Scenario
Social Unrest Emerging Risk Scenario
PandemicEmerging Risk Scenario
Cyber Catastrophe Emerging Risk Scenario
Global Property CrashFinancial Risk Scenario
Eurozone MeltdownFinancial Risk Scenario
Enterprise-wide risk monitoring Annual & Regulatory reporting
– 10K and Viability statements Insurance purchasing strategy Crisis and continuity management
– Management stress tests Emerging risk monitoring and stress test
design Monitoring risk for business units
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