california housing market update - car.org...california housing market update monthly sales and...

California Housing MarketUpdate

Monthly Sales and Price Statistics

July 2018

California, July 2018 Sales: 406,920 Units, -1.4% YTD, -3.4% YTY

Sales Declined for the 3rd Consecutive Month

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Jul-18:406,920

Jul-17:421,920

California Home Sales Continued to Declinefor the 3rd Month

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

Bay Area Sales Up in Five of the Last SixMonths

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Yo

Y%

ch

g.

Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized

Southern California Home Sales BouncedBack in July

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)YoY % chg.

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized

Central Valley Sales Virtually Unchanged fromLast Year

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)YoY % chg.

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized

July 2018 (Year-to-Year)

Sales Declined in Every Segment under $500k

-21.3%

-8.7%

-3.5%-1.2%

5.3% 5.7%

19.0%

13.7%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

California, July 2018: $591,460, -1.9% MTM, +7.6% YTY

CA Median Price Dipped Slightly after Settinga New Record High

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000P:May-07$594,530

T: Feb-09$245,230

-59% frompeak

Jul-18:$591,460Jul-17:

$549,470

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

6.4%

7.1% 7.1% 7.2%

6.4%

9.3%

7.8%

6.7%

3.4%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100

Percentile

Year-over-Year Price Growth

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

YTY

%C

hg

.in

Pric

e

Condo Single-Family Homes

Price Growth Remained Strong for bothHomes and Condos

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/TownhomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

Jan

-05

Jun

-05

No

v-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Feb

-07

Jul-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oc

t-08

Ma

r-09

Au

g-0

9

Jan

-10

Jun

-10

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Feb

-12

Jul-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Oc

t-13

Ma

r-14

Au

g-1

4

Jan

-15

Jun

-15

No

v-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Feb

-17

Jul-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

y-1

8

Me

dia

nP

ric

e

Condo

Condo/Townhome Market Set Another NewRecord High Median Price

SERIES: Median Prices of Existing Condos/TownhomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Jul-18:$486,330

Jul-17:$443,160

CA Median Price (Existing SFH)

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Month-to-Month % Chg

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

July 2018: $289, Down 0.3% MTM, Up 7.0% YTY

Price Per Square Foot Remained Near RecordHigh

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

PR

ICE

PER

SQ

.FT

.

Jul-18:$289Jul-17:

$270

SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

July 2018: 99.6%, -0.4% MTM, -0.4% YTY

Sales Price -to-List Price Had 1st Decline in40 Months

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

Sa

les-

to-L

ist

Pric

eR

atio

Jul-18:99.6%

Jul-17:100.0%

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Slow Growth in List Price Suggests SalesPrice Tapering Off in the Near Term

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1/1

/200

9

5/1

/200

9

9/1

/200

9

1/1

/201

0

5/1

/201

0

9/1

/201

0

1/1

/201

1

5/1

/201

1

9/1

/201

1

1/1

/201

2

5/1

/201

2

9/1

/201

2

1/1

/201

3

5/1

/201

3

9/1

/201

3

1/1

/201

4

5/1

/201

4

9/1

/201

4

1/1

/201

5

5/1

/201

5

9/1

/201

5

1/1

/201

6

5/1

/201

6

9/1

/201

6

1/1

/201

7

5/1

/201

7

9/1

/201

7

1/1

/201

8

5/1

/201

8

California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth

Listing Price Sales Price

Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

100.6%100.5%

100.0% 100.0%

98.8%

99.0%

99.2%

99.4%

99.6%

99.8%

100.0%

100.2%

100.4%

100.6%

100.8%

0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total

Percentile

Sales-to-List Price Ratio

Jun-17 Jun-18

California, July 2018: 18.0 Days

Time on Market Near Record-Low Level

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

DA

YS

ON

MA

RK

ET

SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Median Time on Market by Percentile

SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

1614 15 16 17 16 16 15

22

1618 18 18 18 17

1517

15

25

18

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total

Percentile

Median Time on Market

Jul-17 Jul-18

Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 38.0%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.2%

Reduced-Price Listings

SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018

Reduced-Price Listings

Share Reduced Median Reduction

July 2017: 3.2 Months; July 2018: 3.3 Months

Inventory Index Up from 2017 but RemainedTight

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is definedas the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Active Listings Had the Highest Growth Ratesince at Least Jan 2015

SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

11.9%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Year-over-Year % Chg

Inventory Index Highest in Millions

3.2 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.42.7

4.0 4.04.7

10.5

3.23.2 3.1 3.1 3.13.6

2.73.4

3.94.6

9.1

3.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jul-17 Jul-18

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Housing Supply Improved across the Board,Except for the Sub-$200k Price Segment

July 2018

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

-17.4%

4.2%

14.6%

20.0%17.5%

14.3%

3.4%

11.9%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Active Listing

Inventory Improved as Sales Continued toSoften

2.2

3.63.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is definedas the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Active Listings by Month

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Active Listings by Month

2017 2018

Active Listings Surged in All Regions

2%0%

-1%

26%

14%

8%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley

Ye

ar-

to-Y

ea

r%

Ch

g

Sales Active Listings

July 2018

SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®