by sam moyo and qondi moyo 20th -22 july 2015
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By Sam Moyo and Qondi Moyo
20th -22nd July 2015
AGRICUTURE AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION IN SSA:
PEASANT PATH?
1
Paper presented at the Consultative meeting on employment, structural transformation and
equitable economic development in Africa, Accra, Ghana. The authors are grateful to Steve Mberi
and Rangarirai Muchetu of the African Institute (AIAS) for their research assistance
OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION
2
1.0 Introduction
2.0 Changing agrarian structures and persistent peasantries
3.0 Skewed agricultural production patterns
4.0 Disarticulated agrarian markets; de-agroindustrialisation
5.0 Impediments to agriculture based structural transformation
6.0 Conclusion: food sovereignty and state intervention
1.1: AGRARIAN CRISIS AND ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION?
3
Economic growth with limited development: larger-scale employment;
new and diversified forms of accumulation; improved production
technologies; inclusive social well-being;
Persistent agrarian crisis:
food insecurity and malnutrition;
Low food crop and livestock productivity (volatile domestic supply);
exposure to volatile world food prices and supplies; food aid dependence;
Low labour productivity leading to low agrarian wages and family farm
incomes;
Persistent dependence on agricultural raw materials exports (poor terms
of trade) and increasing food imports (self-sufficiency?)
Limited inter-sectorial linkages and diversification of industry; shift
towards low wage informal sector;
1.2: WHY BLOCKED AGRARIAN TRANSITION: DEBATES
4
Focus on low agricultural productivity: conventionally attributed to presumed weaknesses of pervasive family farming system and inherent obstacles to innovation; and economies of scale in production and marketing;
excessive state intervention in markets;
“mis-governance”, neopatrimonial forms of patronage, corruption and ‘rent-seeking’;
“Attract FDI”: presumed availability of 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land, growing labour reserve, and expanding demand (middle class; urban) Large-scale land ‘acquisitions’ (or “grabs”) by foreign capital and
domestic actors from the mid 2000s;
Agribusiness (seeds, inputs and food markets)
1.3: LIMITS OF DOMINANT AGRARIAN TRANSFORMATION VISION
5
• Perspectives omit policy induced systemic obstacles to agrarian
transformation;
• “The rise vision” sidelines family farming;
Increased domestic food production/supply to meet rise in demand, not prioritised;
Improving agrarian employment and incomes to fuel effective demand, also not
prioritised;
1.4: NEOLIBERAL AGRARIAN POLICY: KEY ELEMENTS
6
Bretton Woods claim:
agro-industrial structures not competitive enough; focus on agricultural exports by building productive capacity of farmers to specialize in competitive traditional and non-traditional export crops;
Limit food grain production (self-sufficiency), import grain from countries with a ‘comparative advantage’ (food security);
Abandonment of capital, trade and investment control: no direction of capital towards positive structural change; Macro-economic policy regime reduced public transfers to agriculture, infant industries, and rural development; Agricultural marketing and price support, input subsidies abandoned; Reduced research and extension; Seed, fertilizers and agro-chemicals production by local industries (ISI agenda), privatised and closed down in favour of imports;
1.5 KEY EFFECTS OF AGRARIAN POLICIES ON AGRICULTURE
7
Social welfare transfers replaced by narrow poverty and
livelihoods strategies: limited food and cash transfers;
Deflation of rural incomes and wages, lowered effective
demand (food and inputs);
Integration of LSCFs and better-off FFs into agribusiness
contracts;
Trade liberalisation and currency devaluations enabled
food imports;
2.0: AGRARIAN TRAJECTORY AND ACCUMULATION 2.1: TRIMODAL AGRARIAN STRUCTURES? INTERLINKED
8
Farm type Reliance on hired
labor
Source of income Source of capital Marketing
Differentiated
peasantry
Few permanent
plus casual
workers; (family
labour)
Farm income, some
wages, and
remittances
Equity, some
formal finance
(contracts)
Self marketing;
contracts; farmers
associations
Small to medium
capitalist farmers
Over 2 permanent
and many casual
workers,
manager/supervisor
Farm Income,
business, and
employment
Formal finance,
Equity
Self marketing
(urban);
contract exports
Private and public
plantations
More permanent
and casuals;
managers
Farm income, agro-
industry
Share capital,
profits; loans
Vertically
integrated: (urban
and export markets)
9
Over 1 million Family Farms in SSA (arable land 0.1/3 ha).
75% population engaged in FFs and related non-farm activity
Significant contribution to food supply/distribution (80%);
Over 600 million rural people derive main incomes, work and food from FFs;
25% or 239mn undernourished: limited food, cash transfers
Extreme rural poverty (400 million) links food insecurity, malnutrition, vulnerable lifestyles to unpredictable and low output.
2.2 PERSISTENCE OF DIFFERENTIATED PEASANTRY
2.3 POPULATION AND ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE IN AGRICULTURE SSA
10
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Pe
rso
ns
(100
0)
Total Population - Both sexes
Rural population
Total economically active population
Total economically active population in Agr
2.4: AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Labour not evenly spread between and within FFs and overtime (gender and generational inequities);
Seasonal flexibility of labour allocation structures wage-income diversification;
Labour diversification optimies under-employed labour resources, spreads risk;
Rural out-migration to low informal sector wages and unemployment;
Where productivity and returns are low, FF self-employment incomes are low; unremunerated labour;
FF labour and employment is undervalued by officials, but actual and potential employment capabilities are high;
11
2.5: TOTAL LAND AREA PER CAPITA IN SSA
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Are
a p
er
cap
ita
( H
a/p
ers
on
)
Land area per capita Agricultural area per capita Arable land per capita
12
2.6: ARABLE LAND AND CROPPED AREA PER CAPITA
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Are
a p
er
cap
ita
(ha/
pe
rso
n)
Arable land per capita
Cropped area per capita
13
2.7: GENDER INEQUITIES UNDERMINE FAMILY FARMING SYSTEM Customarily and statutorily defined patriarchal relations,
enable gender inequalities;
Women’s access to land depends on male family members
and clan authorities; land markets are inaccessible;
(matrilineal!)
Gender discrimination in decision-making, access to assets,
credit and technical support constrains productivity;
Gender division of labour is unequal (traction, labour hiring;
Reproductive labour unremunerated; (limited public
support);
14
3.0: AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION TRENDS AND PRODUCTIVITY 3.1: GDP GROWTH AND AREA HARVESTED FOR CEREAL SSA
15
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
GD
P %
ch
ang
e
Are
a h
arv
est
ed
(10
00 H
a)
Mil
lio
ns
Area harvested all cereals (Ha)
Gross domestic product, constant 2000 US$ prices
Linear (Gross domestic product, constant 2000 US$ prices)
3.2: QUANTITY OF MAIN FOOD CROP OUTPUT SSA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Qu
anti
ty (
ton
ne
s)
Mil
lio
ns
CerealsTotal
Roots and TubersTotal
PulsesTotal
Oilcrops Primary
Vegetables Primary
Fibre Crops Primary
16
3.2B FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA
17
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1960 1980 2000
Qu
anti
ty p
rod
uce
d p
.c.
(to
nn
es/
pe
rso
n)
Eastern Africa Food Production per capita
CerealsTotal
Roots and TubersTotal
PulsesTotal
Oilcrops Primary
Vegetables Primary
Fibre Crops Primary 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1960 1980 2000
Qu
anti
ty p
rod
uce
d p
.c.
(to
nn
es/
pe
rso
n)
Middle Africa Food Production per capita
CerealsTotal
Roots and TubersTotal
PulsesTotal
Oilcrops Primary
Vegetables Primary
Fibre Crops Primary
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1960 1980 2000
Qu
anti
ty p
rod
uce
d p
.c.
(to
nn
es/
per
son
)
Western Africa Food Production per capita
CerealsTotal
Roots and TubersTotal
PulsesTotal
Oilcrops Primary
Vegetables Primary
Fibre Crops Primary 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1960 1980 2000
Qu
anti
ty p
rod
uce
d p
.c.
(to
nn
es/p
erso
n)
Southern Africa Food Production per capita
CerealsTotal
Roots and TubersTotal
PulsesTotal
Oilcrops Primary
Vegetables Primary
Fibre Crops Primary
3.2C: FOOD CROP YIELDS
18
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
Ye
ild
Hg
/H
a
Years from 1961 - 2013
Total Cereal Yeild SSA
3.3 CASH CROP PRODUCTION SSA TOTAL
19
3.3B CASH CROP YIELDS
20
3.4: FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION AND AREA HARVESTED SSA
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Are
a h
arv
est
ed
all
cro
ps
(100
0 H
a)
Th
ou
san
ds
Fe
rtil
ize
r c
on
sum
pti
on
(to
nn
es)
Eastern Africa Total Fertilizersin tonnes
Middle Africa Total Fertilizers
Southern Africa Total Fertilizers
Western Africa Total Fertilizers
SSA Total Total Fertilizers (tonnes)
SSA Total Area harvested all crops (hectares)
21
4.0 DISARTICULATED AGRARIAN MARKETS; DE-AGROINDUSTRIALISATION
4.1 AGRICULTURAL EXPORT COMMODITY PATH DEPENDENCE
22
Commodity Total West Africa Central Africa East Africa Southern Africa
Cocoa, beans 20 10 5 3 2
Coffee, green 31 11 7 6 7
Cotton, lint 35 12 6 7 10
Cotton seed 35 12 6 7 10
Rubber, natural 11 6 5 0 0
Tea 19 1 4 6 8
Tobacco,
unmanufactured
34 11 7 6 10
23
4.2 EXPORT CONCENTRATION RATIO BY REGION, 1995-2009
4.3 AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICES 1960-2013
24
4.4 IMPORT QUANTITY FOR MAIN FOODS SSA AGGREGATE
25
4.4B PER CAPITA IMPORT VALUE SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Imp
ort
val
ue
p.c
. (U
S$/
pe
rso
n)
Eastern Africa Import Value per capita
Middle Africa Import Value per capita
Southern Africa Import Value per capita
Western Africa Import Value per capita
26
5.0: IMPEDIMENTS TO AGRICULTURE BASED STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION 5.1 AGRICULTURE, VALUE ADDED (% OF GDP) SSA
27
5.1B: AGRICULTURE, VALUE ADDED (% OF GDP) SSA
28
5.2 AGRICULTURES AND ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION
29
5.3 TRANSFORMATION OF AGRIC VALUE ADDED AGAINST GDP SSA TOTAL
30
5.4: TRANSFORMATION OF AGRIC. EMPLOYMENT AND GDP
31
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
% o
f to
tal
po
pu
lati
on
eco
no
mic
ally
act
ive
in
Ag
ric
ult
ure
Ru
ral
po
pu
lati
on
(%
of
tota
l)
GDP % change (in constant US$)
rural population (% of total)
% of total population active in Agric
Linear (rural population (% of total))
Linear (% of total population active in Agric)
6.0: CONCLUSION: VISION OF SUSTAINABLE AGRARIAN TRANSFORMATION
32
Increased agricultural productivity to increase supply of diverse agricultural raw
materials and foods; support demand for farm inputs and implements produced
locally.
Harness and strengthen potentials of peasantry in agric. production and markets;
An appropriate mix of interventionist macro-economic and sectorial policies
aimed at promoting integrated and articulated diverse agro-industrial economy.
Shift trajectory of the land-extensive family farm production to intensive agro-
ecological sustainable land utilization system, prioritizing food sovereignty.
Subsidize, protect and support agricultural markets and agro-industries
Greater proportion of national resources to peasant path of agrarian reform.
Enhance regional cooperation for collective food sovereignty.
Annex 1: SPECIFIC INTERVENTIONS Substantial public investments into productivity-enhancing
technologies, irrigation, accessible markets, rural infrastructure,
and social welfare
Leverage protected markets to serve food security and rural
development (expand public procurement for social transfers;
regulate food imports; incentives for SME’s in rural areas)
Equitable and decent (gender and generationally) labour
conditions; access to land and agricultural resources;
Integrated rural development and social protection systems,
Promoting economic diversification and rural-urban balances, and
the sustainability agro-ecosystem
33
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