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PRA procedures in the UK and in Europe
By Dr Ray CannonThe Food and Environment Research Agency (Fera)The Food and Environment Research Agency (Fera)
Thursday 28th July 2011, Bangkok
Format of the talk
• What is PRA? And Why is PRA done• Pathway, Pest or Policy-initiated? • Two PRA schemes:• Two PRA schemes:
– PART 1: The UK PRA scheme
• The EC PH Directive and Annex-listed quarantine pests for Europe– PART 2: EPPO PRA scheme
What is Pest Risk Analysis?
• The process of evaluating biological or other scientific and economic evidence to determine whether a pest should be regulated and the strength of any phytosanitary measures to be strength of any phytosanitary measures to be taken against it.
• Glossary of phytosanitary terms, ISPM No. 5
Pest Risk Analysis (PRA)
A structured, science-based process for evaluating:– Scientific and economic evidence– Determining whether the risk posed by an – Determining whether the risk posed by an
organism is sufficient to warrant phytosanitary regulation
– The nature and strength of the measures to take against it (PRM).
Why is PRA done?
• To evaluate and manage risks from specific pests and internationally traded commodities – To identify and assess risks to agricultural and
horticultural crops, forestry and the environment from plant pests plant pests
– To create lists of regulated pests– To produce lists of prohibited plants and plant
products– To assist in identifying appropriate management
options (including measures and treatments)
PRA schemes
• A framework for conducting analyses• Ensuring that all factors are taken into
account in detailed assessments• Highlighting those factors of key • Highlighting those factors of key
importance when there is time for only a brief appraisal, e.g. when pests are detected in perishable imports
EPPO (2002). Pest risk analysis on detection of a pest in an importedconsignment. EPPO Bulletin 32: 235-239.
PART 1.
• The UK Fera’s PRA scheme for specific pests and diseases
• With some examples of different pathway related PRAsrelated PRAs
• The three P’s!– Pathway, Pest or Policy
UK PRA System
INITIATION • Identity of pest• Reason for PRA• Define PRA areaRISK ASSESSMENT
• Capable of introduction ? (entry & establishment)
• Potential to cause damage ?RISK ASSESSMENT
• Present in UK/EU ?• EU/EPPO Pest Lists ?• Host Plants• Geographical Distribution
RISK MANAGEMENT• Prospects for continued
exclusion ?• Management options /
prospects for eradication• (Consultation)CONCLUSION
UK PRA STAGE 1: INITIATION
1. What is the name of the pest? 2. What is the reason for the PRA?
– New pathway ?– New pest ?– New pest ?– New policy ?
3. What is the PRA area? – The UK or European Union?– EPPO region?
PRA areas: the UK
PRA areas: the EU
PRA areas: the EPPO region
A. Pathway-initiated PRAs
• Commonly as a result of a new tradepathway(s), or via
• Identification of a pathway that presents a potential pest risk
• Uses a pathway (rather than a pest) as the • Uses a pathway (rather than a pest) as the basis for the PRA
• Additional PRA’s are necessary for any pests that are identified as potential quarantine pests
Ware potatoes from New Zealand (i)
• PRA initiated via new trade request• Invertebrate potato pests studied
– 52 pests and diseases were found to be common to NZ and UK
– 15 pests identified for PRA– 15 pests identified for PRA• The white fringed weevil , identified as
potentially serious invertebrate for EU• 15 PRAs sent to EC PH Standing Committee
Graphognathus (Naupactus) leucoloma
Conclusion of PRA• polyphagous pest of >350
plant species in the USAincluding vegetable cropsand tree seedlings.and tree seedlings.
• Native to South America• Spread to USA, S. Africa,
Australia & New Zealand• Could spread to the EPPO
region where it wouldthreaten agriculture andsilviculture.
Ware potatoes from New Zealand (ii)
• EC Decision 2001/199/EC– Derogation to import prohibition (Annex III.A.12)– From 1st March to 31st August 2001
• Derogation conditions included– use of certified seed and freedom from the white
fringed weevil, wart disease, brown rot and potato cyst nematodes
– More than 4,500 tonnes were imported– No quarantine pests and diseases detected
B. Pest-initiated PRA
• Uses a pest as the basis for the PRA– All possible pathways need to be considered
• May occur as a result of:– Detection of pest in consignments – Outbreaks - inside or outside of the PRA area– Outbreaks - inside or outside of the PRA area– A request for a pest to be imported for research– The spreading of a pest– Identification of an organism not previously known to
be a pest– Identification of a pest that may require
phytosanitary measures
C. Policy-initiated PRA
• As a result of review or revision of existing phytosanitary policies and priorities
UK PRA STAGE 2: PEST RISK ASSESSMENT
4. Does the pest occur in the PRA area or does itarrive regularly as a natural migrant?– Natural migrants may not be excluded
5. Is …the pest is already established in the PRAarea?area?– PRA may not be required (or for smaller area)
6. What is the pest’s status in thePlant Health Directive (2000/29/EC)?– Quarantine status (listed?)
EC Plant Health Directive 2000/29/EC
• Quarantine pests are listed in the Annexes of the EC Plant Health Directive:-
• 300+ plant viruses, bacteria, insects, mites, nematodes • 300+ plant viruses, bacteria, insects, mites, nematodes and parasitic plants
• Harmful to plants, or plant products, whose Introduction into EU MS’s is banned
• Enacted in the UK by the Plant Health (England) Order 2005
UK PRA STAGE 2: PEST RISK ASSESSMENT (i)
7. What is the quarantine status of the pest in the lists of the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organisation (EPPO)?– I.e. EPPO A1 and A2 Lists of pests
8. What are the pests’ host plants ? 8. What are the pests’ host plants ? – Some hosts may not be present (tea in the UK!)
9. What hosts are of economic and/or environmental importance in the PRA area?
UK PRA STAGE 2: PEST RISK ASSESSMENT (ii)
10. If the pest needs a vector , is it present in the PRA area? – Pine wood nematode vectors: Monochamus spp.
11. What is the pest’s present geographical 11. What is the pest’s present geographical distribution ?– Distributions of quarantine pests are given on
EPPO data sheets as well as PRAs
UK PRA scheme
• The previous questions (Q’s 1-11) were aimed at collecting and collating the information required for a PRA
• In the next stages (Q’s 12-19), more judgements are involved: i.e. in making assessments of the likelihood of occurrence a range of factors….
UK PRA STAGE 2: PEST RISK ASSESSMENT (iii)
12. How likely is the pest to enter the PRA area? – Very unlikely – Unlikely – Unlikely – Moderate likelihood – Likely – Very likely
Factors determining the ‘probability of entry’
• The number and variety of pathways• Association of pest with the pathway• Survival in transit• Probability of surviving phytosanitary • Probability of surviving phytosanitary
procedures• Probability of surviving cultural or
commercial practices• Transfer onto a suitable host
UK PRA STAGE 2: PEST RISK ASSESSMENT (iv)
13. How likely is the pest to establish outdoors in the PRA area? – E.g. using CLIMEX mapping to predict
survival
14. How likely is the pest to establish in protected (e.g. glasshouse) environments in the PRA area?– E.g. chrysanthemum glasshouses average of
20-22°C
Factors determining the ‘probability of establishment’
• Ecological Factors– Suitability of the abiotic environment– Presence of suitable hosts, alternate hosts and
vectors– Availability of effective natural or artificial control – Availability of effective natural or artificial control
mechanisms– Cultural practices
• Intrinsic Factors– Life cycle– Reproductive strategy– Genetic adaptability– Minimum population needed for establishment
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Tem
p (C
)Temperature data in relation to
Aphid nerii development
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361
Julian date
Tem
p (C
)
Heated max Heated min Outdoors max Outdoors minRed = threshold temperature for development of Aphis nerii (8.2°C)
Blue = outdoor maximum and minimum temperature data southern England
Black = maximum and minimum temperature in a heated glasshouse.
Aphis nerii: PRA conclusions
• In the UK hosts are grown outdoors and in protection
• Is a pest which could survive in protection ‘year survive in protection ‘year round’ and outdoors in the summer
• Could be a virus vector• Statutory action was taken
against the pest
Fig. A3(iv) Diabrotica virgifera virgifera distribution in Europepredicted by CLIMEX with 1931-1960 mean climatic data from 285 weather stations
Western corn rootwom: Establishment potential
Average(1997)
Hot(1995)
UK PRA STAGE 2: PEST RISK ASSESSMENT (v)
15. How quickly could the pest spreadwithin the PRA area?
• E.g. For WCR spreading in the UK– A. Without EC controls : Rapid spread– A. Without EC controls : Rapid spread
• 40 km yr -1 rate and costs between £2.2 - 2.6 million over 20 yr
– B. With EC controls : Slow spread• 4 km yr -1 rate and costs between £8.6 - 11.5
million over 20 yr
Maize distribution and Diabrotica spread potential
UK PRA STAGE 2: PEST RISK ASSESSMENT (vi)
16. What is the pest’s potential to cause economic and/or environmental damage in the PRA area?– E.g. Phytophthora ramorum– E.g. Phytophthora ramorum
17. What is the pest’s potential as a vector of plant pathogens?– E.g. Bemisa tabaci: vector of 120+ viruses
Factors determining ‘economic impacts’
• Direct Pest Effects– Yield– Quality– Cost and Efficacy of Plant Protection
• Indirect Pest Effects– Market Access– Environmental Effects– Eradication, Research and Advisory costs– Social costs e.g. tourism
UK PRA STAGE 3: PEST RISK MANAGEMENT (i)
18. How likely is the pest to continue to be excluded from the PRA area?– A) Outdoors and B) In protection
19. How likely are outbreaks to be eradicated ?19. How likely are outbreaks to be eradicated ?– Thrips palmi was eradicated in the UK in 2000-01– Bemisa tabaci is regularly eradicated from
glasshouses in the UK
UK PRA STAGE 3: PEST RISK MANAGEMENT (ii)
20. What management options are available for containment and control?
21. Summary22. Conclusions22. ConclusionsREFERENCESName of Pest Risk Analyst
Conclusion of Pest Risk Assessment
• Provide a statement summarising the overall risk• Does the pest have the characteristics of a
quarantine pest?• Highlight key factors influencing overall risk:
Entry, Establishment, ImpactsEntry, Establishment, Impacts• List the principal uncertainties• Ensure conclusions can easily be used by risk
managers, e.g. EPPO Report of a PRA
Some examples of UK PRA’son the ‘web’ (i)
http://www.fera.defra.gov.uk/plants/plantHealth/pes tsDiseases/praTableNew.cfm
• Citrus longhorned beetle (Anoplophora chinensis)• Cercospora leaf blight of carrot (Cercospora carotae) • Rosemary beetle (Chrysolina americana)• Rosemary beetle (Chrysolina americana)• Tasmanian eucalyptus leaf beetle (Chrysophtharta
bimaculata) • Western Corn Rootworm (Diabrotica v. virgifera)• Phytophthora ramorum and P. kernoviae• Pepino mosaic virus • Chilli thrips (Scirtothrips dorsalis)• Karnal bunt (Tilletia indica)
UK PRAs on the ‘www’ (ii):Consultation
• Hosts and/or sector potentially affected– A specific host; Protected ornamentals; etc.
• Key factors – E.g. already established; absent from UK; etc.
• Current Defra PH recommendations• Current Defra PH recommendations– E.g. Request listing; no statutory action etc.
• Stakeholder action – Comments welcome; subject to – consultation etc.
http://www.defra.gov.uk/planth/pratab.htm
The EPPO PRA scheme:overview
Initiation stage:– WHY? reasons for performing PRA– WHAT? identity of organism– WHERE? definition of PRA area
• Section A: Is there a Risk? • Section A: Is there a Risk? – qualitative assessment if organism is a pest and
presents risk to PRA area
• Section B: How large is the Risk? – quantitative assessment of the risk
• Final evaluation: expert judgement
EPPO Guidelines on pest risk analysis (PRA)
1. PM 5/1(1). Checklist of information required for pest risk analysis (PRA). EPPO Bulletin 23, 191–198.
2. PM 5/2 (revised) . Pest risk analysis on detection of a pest in an imported consignment. detection of a pest in an imported consignment. EPPO Bulletin 32, 235–239.
3. PM 5/3(1). Pest risk assessment scheme. EPPO Bulletin 27 , 281–305.
4. PM 5/4(1). Pest risk management scheme. EPPO Bulletin 31, 11–28.
http://www.eppo.org/QUARANTINE/Pest_Risk_Analysis/PRA_intro.htm
EPPO PRA SCHEME:48 Questions
• Stage 1: Initiation • Stage 2: Pest Risk Assessment
– Section A : Pest categorization– Section B: Assessment of the probability of introduction and
spread and of potential economic consequencesspread and of potential economic consequences• Probability of introduction
– Probability of entry of a pest– Probability of Establishment– Probability of spread
• Assessment of potential economic consequences
• Stage 3: Pest risk management
PEST RISK ANALYSIS SCHEME
Detailed pest risk assessment needed?
Establishment
Spread
Entry
Spread
Analysis of risk management options
Impacts
Pest/pathway risk assessment conclusions
Risk Communication
Section A: Pest categorization
1. Identify the pest 2. Is it a pest in its area of current distribution?3. Does the pest occur (and is it widespread) in
the PRA area?4. Potential for establishment and spread4. Potential for establishment and spread
– Hosts/vectors/ ecoclimatic conditions
5. Potential for economic consequences6. Conclusion : could present a risk OR not a
quarantine pest for the PRA area?
Section B: Probability of introduction (i)
• Probability of entry of a pest• Identification of pathways• Probability of the pest being associated with the
individual pathway at origin• Probability of survival during transport or storage• Probability of survival during transport or storage• Probability of the pest surviving existing pest
management procedures• Consideration of further pathwaysConclusion on the probability of entry
Section B: Probability of introduction (ii)
• Probability of Establishment• Availability of suitable hosts or suitable
habitats , alternate hosts and vectors in the PRA area
• Suitability of the environment• Suitability of the environment• Cultural practices and control measures• Other characteristics of the pest affecting the
probability of establishmentConclusion on the probability of establishment
Section B: Probability of introduction (iii)
• Probability of spread– by natural means? by human assistance?– Conclusion on the probability of spread
• Overall conclusions on the probability of • Overall conclusions on the probability of introduction and spread– E.g. in comparison with PRAs on other pests.
• Conclusion regarding endangered areas– I.e. whole of the PRA area, or parts of it
Assessment of potential economic consequences (i)
Pest effects (in current range and PRA area)• effects on crop yield and/or quality etc.• increase in production costs (incl. control
costs)• reduction in consumer demand• reduction in consumer demand• environmental and social damage • losses in export markets• How easily can the pest be controlled in the
PRA area?
Assessment of potential economic consequences (ii)
• Would control measures disrupt existingbiological or integrated systems?
• other costs resulting from introduction?• Could genetic traits be transferred to other• Could genetic traits be transferred to other
species?• Act as a vector or host for other pests?• Conclusion of the assessment of economic
consequences
EPPO PRA SCHEME:Conclusions
• Conclusion of the pest risk assessment – Entry– Establishment – Economic importance– Economic importance
• Overall conclusion of the Pest Risk Assessment
• Stage 3: Pest risk management– Covered in 2nd talk
Pest Risk Communication (i)
• Not a discrete stage of PRA• Continuous throughout PRA
– Ensures views of all parties are taken into consideration when making decisionsconsideration when making decisions
– If all information is shared, government and stakeholders will often reach the same conclusions
– International harmonization
• Purpose is to reconcile the views of scientists, stakeholders, politicians, etc in order to:– Achieve a common understanding of the pest risks– Develop credible pest risk management options
Pest Risk Communication (ii)
– Develop credible and consistent regulations and policies to deal with pest risks
– Promote awareness of the phytosanitary issues under consideration
EFSA
• The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) • Responsible for European Union (EU) risk
assessment regarding food and feed safety• New Panel on Plant Health (PLH) • New Panel on Plant Health (PLH) • Remit is to peer review and assess risks
associated with plant pests in EU• The Panel on Plant Health (PLH) deals with
organisms posing a risk to plant health. The Panel is supported by the Plant Health Unit. http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/panels/plh.htm6
Uncertainty
• Uncertainty of the process (methodology)• Uncertainty of the assessor(s) (human errors)• Uncertainty of the organisms (biological unknowns)• The goal of PRA is to reduce the uncertainties
– Formalised procedures, checklists and established – Formalised procedures, checklists and established precedents all help to reduce uncertainty
– PRAs providing a transparent process available for scrutiny and discussion
– Uncertainties may remain and it is the role of the assessor to highlight these as an aid to decision/policy making
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