business leaders' briefing 24.09.2014

12 April 2023

Business Leaders’ Briefing

Sarah StewartChief Executive, NewcastleGateshead Initiative

Karen MatthewManaging Director, John Lewis, Newcastle

Welcome and introductionSarah Stewart, Chief Executive, NewcastleGateshead Initiative

Gold partners

Have the green shoots of economic recovery reached the North East?• Neil Saunders, Chief Executive, Conlumino.

• Tom Warburton, Director of Investment & Development, Newcastle City Council.

• Panel Q&A chaired by Paul Callaghan.

– with Dianne Sharp, Regional Director, CBI & Chris Milne, Chief Economist, NELEP.

• Chair’s summary.

Neil SaundersChief Executive, Conlumino

CONLUMINO CONSUMER SENTIMENT TRACKER JULY 2014 PAGE 8

RETAIL AND THERECOVERY

CONLUMINO

CONFIDENCE IS FRAGILE

Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14

-45.0-43.9-43.1

-28.0-26.0-28.8

-6.0 -7.3 -9.2-3.5

-6.3-2.0

7.10.7 1.4 2.6 3.3

-0.6

13.2

0.1

HOW DO YOU EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?INDEX, BETTER MINUS WORSE

REGIONAL CONFIDENCE

ECONOMY CHANGE OVER NEXT SIX MONTHSINDEX

REGION INDEX THIS YEAR

UK national -1.8

South East 7.8

London 7.5

West Midlands 6.7

East Midlands 3.2

Northern Ireland -0.1

East Anglia -1.7

North West -3.7

South West -4.6

Wales -8.2

Yorkshire & Humberside -8.7

North East -15.8

Scotland -16.0

INCOME GROWTH IS WEAK

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1.1 1.2

-0.8-1.1

-0.7

-0.20.1

0.6

1.10.9

1.1

DISPOSABLE INCOME GROWTH YEAR-ON-YEAR PERCENTAGE GROWTH

RETAIL IS IN GROWTH

Health

, bea

uty

Food

& G

roce

ry

Cloth

ing

Tota

l

Homew

ares

Furn

iture

, floo

ring

Elec

trica

ls

DIY &

Gar

denin

g

Other

Home

Ent

4.1 3.9 3.2 2.61.6 1.0 0.8 0.4

-0.5

-8.0

RETAIL SPENDING GROWTH RATES FOR 2014PERCENT

RETAIL IS IN GROWTH

RETAIL SPENDING GROWTH RATES FOR 2014 BY REGIONPERCENT

3.6

2.9 2.7 2.6 2.62.1

1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2

RETAIL GROWTH TRENDS

1993-20021983-1992 2003-2012 2013-2022

4.5%

7.0%

1.9%

?

RETAIL SPENDING GROWTH RATES OVER PERIODSAVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE

GOLDEN DRIVERS OF GROWTH

Easy credit and low(ish) debt

Stable and low interest rates

Rapidly rising house prices

Stableeconomy

Easy to live beyond income

growth

Low mortgage repayments

Mortgage equity withdrawal

Solid consumer sentiment

ARE NOW TARNISHED

Easy credit and low(ish) debt

Stable and low interest rates

Rapidly rising house prices

Stableeconomy

Easy to live beyond income

growth

Low mortgage repayments

Mortgage equity withdrawal

Solid consumer sentiment

High debtLow, but rising interest rates

Slowly risinghouse prices

Improving but uncertainoutlook

Living within means

Higher mortgage repayments

Repaying mortgage

debt

Soft and choppy sentiment

INTEREST RATES

RISE STABLE FALL

28.9%

53.8%66.1%

44.1%5.0%

2.1%

WHAT CONSUMERS THINK WILL HAPPEN TO RATES OVER SIX MONTHSPERCENT, 2013 TOP AND 2014 BOTTOM

IMPACT OF RATE RISES

RATES RISE TO1.0%

RATES STAY AT0.5%

RATES RISE TO1.5%

RATES RISE TO2.0%

8.6%7.7% 10.2% 14.9%

HOUSEHOLDS WITH OVER 30% OF DISPOSABLE INCOME ON REPAYMENTSPERCENTAGE

RETAIL GROWTH TRENDS

1993-20021983-1992 2003-2012 2013-2022

4.5%

7.0%

1.9%

2.6%

RETAIL SPENDING GROWTH RATES OVER PERIODSAVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE

RETAIL SPEND FORECAST

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

3.0

3.6

2.5

1.3 1.51.1 0.9

1.7

2.6

3.12.6

2.9

2.22.4

RETAIL SPENDING GROWTH PERCENT

THE CHALLENGE FOR RETAIL

INDULGENT

ESSENTIAL

IMPORTANT

54.1%

29.2%

16.7%

RETAIL IN 2013 WAS WORTH £316.7BN

CONSEQUENCES

COMPETITIVE FORCES STRONG

ECONOMY IMPROVING

WINNERS AND LOSERS

DEMOCRATIC

INNOVATION AND INSPIRATION

CONLUMINO CONSUMER SENTIMENT TRACKER JULY 2014 PAGE 23

Twitter: @neilretailEmail: neil@conlumino.com

CONLUMINO

Tom WarburtonDirector of Investment & Development, Newcastle City Council

Helping make Newcastle a Working City

Overview ofNorth East LEP area

Number of businesses in the UK private sector per 10,000 adults, start of 2013

Taken from BIS (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/254552/13-92-business-population-estimates-2013-stats-release-4.pdf)

Our approach• Supporting business and

enterprise• An enabling infrastructure• Investment for growth and jobs• Employment and skills• Working with others – partners

in city, NELEP, core cities, OneNorth (transport investment)

Maintaining pace with the expected UK recovery over the next four years, would point to an increase in jobs in Newcastle of about 6,000.

Source: Office for budget responsibility and NCC calculations

Looking to the future

AcceleratedDevelopmentZone

Stimulating development

Not just city centre• Investment in crane, quay, sites and

road• Improving broadband across city,

including vouchers for superfast• New jobs in Longbenton• Tech sector – Campus North,

Dynamo• International promotion

Paul CallaghanChair, NewcastleGateshead Initiative

Panel Q&A session

• Neil Saunders, Chief Executive, Conlumino.

• Tom Warburton, Director of Investment & Development, Newcastle City Council.

• Dianne Sharp, Regional Director, CBI.

• Chris Milne, Chief Economist, NELEP.

SummaryPaul Callaghan, Chair, NewcastleGateshead Initiative

Thank you

12 April 2023

Business Leaders’ Briefing