bushfires, uncertainty & instability

Lew ShortPrincipal, Emergency Management & Resilience

Bushfires, Uncertainty & Instability

“The world has entered the era of ‘mega crisis’

or catastrophic emergencies’ whose force

and magnitude defy even the best laid plans

and the most robust response systems”Professor Paul ‘t Hart

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Potential:• Loss of radio & telco towers• Loss of situational awareness

Capacity of community to receive and act on triggers

Out of Scale Events• Big events expose the vulnerability of

government• Wicked problems and leaps of faith• The system will break• Blue Mountains

197 house lossesNo deaths

173

374

DeathsBlack Saturday firesAssociated heatwaveWhat level of risk is tolerated?

Sydney Basin drained of fire fighting resources and sent to the Mountains

• What if fires had been burning in northern or southern Sydney OR started in these places when the resources were away?

Winmalee http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-26/nswfire-warnings-disaster-relief-winmalee-meeting-bushfires/5047638

24 October 2013

• Victims of the October 2013 Springwood, Winmalee and Yellow Rock bushfires are launching a class action against power company Endeavour Energy

• ~$200m

Bushfire Challenges• Catastrophic & out of scale events• Ability to manage large scale asymmetric

events• Situational awareness in complex

environments

Challenge: How to make information accessible• In a way that provokes a

response• Gives greater

understanding of risk• Initiates action and

adaptation• Builds capacity• Enhances resilience

Lew ShortPrincipal, Emergency Management & ResilienceEco Logical Australia

Lews@ecoaus.com.au

Lew Short Lewshort14http://www.slideshare.net/LewShort

Thanks