building an “east asian community” in vain japan’s power shift and economic regionalism in the...
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Building an “East Asian Community” in Vain
Japan’s Power Shift and Economic Regionalism in the New Millennium
Hiroyuki HoshiroInstitute of Social Science, TOKYO University
1 Japan’s Regime Shift and “East Asian Community” 2 Japan’s EPA Policy: Current States 3 Three Societal Interests over Economic Regionalism
Business Agriculture Organized Labor
4 Japan’s government Change and Three Societal Actors
5 (Tentative) Conclusion and Expectation
Outline
Japan’s Government Change LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) →DPJ (Democratic Party of
Japan) in August 2009 New Prime Minister Hatoyama’s Two Pet Foreign Policies
Equal Japan-US Relationship Building an “East Asian Community”
→ No Substantial Progress: Why?? East Asian Community = EPA (Economic Partnership Agreement) East Asia = ASEAN + 6 (China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India,
NZ)
Japan’s Regime Shift and “East Asian Community”
Japan’s EPA: Current States
Thailand’s and India’s demand “to allow nurses and careworkers to work in
Japan” →No agreements made
No mentions with “East Asian Community” in Naoto Kan’s policy speech in January 2011
Japan’s EPA: some evidences
What are important factors promote/prevent economic regionalism in East Asia?
Domino (Baldwin) Norm, Idea (Acharya) Power Relations (Galia )
→Domestic Interest Groups Land, capital, and lobor
Previous studies
Export Industries →In favor of Free Trade Nippon Keidanren (1300 leading firms & 130 major
industrial organizations ) supports EPA with East Asia
Domestic Industries → Japan Textile Federation (JTF) →Supports EPA Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (small
and medium firms) also supports “Big Business Chance”
Three Societal Interests over Economic Regionalism –Firms--
Well-organized Japanese agriculture groups →Strongly Oppose to Tree Trade Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA) → Oppose,
and/ or request “exceptional measure”--excluding rice, starch, and diary products from agreements–
Organized labor → oppose to EPA (mobilizing foreign workers) Rengo (biggest labor union)
Three Societal Interests over Economic Regionalism –Agriculture and Labor--
Three Societal Interests over Economic Regionalism
Farmers
Big Business,Medium and Small Firms
Labor Union
EPACON PRO
So called “agricultural policy triangle”
Government Change in 2009 Destroyed this triangle?? →NO
Japan’s government Change and Tree Societal Actors
JALDP’s zoku (influential Diet members)
MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries)
Agriculture and DPJ
1996 2000 2003 2005 20090
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
agriculture→LDPagriculture→DPJ
Year
Vo
te %
Some agricultural groups (e.g. In Aomori, Nagano, and Saga) changed support from LDP to DPJ
DPJ’s policy proposal on the “creation of Individual (household) income support for agriculture system”
DPJ’s Manifesto in 2009“measures (to promote the conclusion of EPAs) will not include any which are detrimental to the safety and stable supply of food, increasing Japan’s food self-sufficiency ration, and the development of Japan’s agricultural industry and its farming villages”(This sentence did not exist in the 2005 Manifesto)
Agriculture and DPJ
Agriculture and LDP/DPJ
Farmers
EPACON PRO
LDP
DPJ
Organized Labor and DPJ
1996 2000 2003 2005 20090
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Labor Union→LDPLabor Union→DPJ
Year
Vo
te %
Organized Labor and DPJ
Organized Labor and LDP/DPJ
Labor Union
EPACON PRO
LDP
DPJ
DPJ’s policy to “ban political donations by corporations and other organizations” in order to “end public distrust of politics” (2009 Manifesto)
Business Groups and LDP/DPJ
Business Groups and LDP/DPJ
Business Groups and LDP/DPJ
Big Business,Medium and Small Firms
EPACON PRO
LDP
DPJ
Three Societal Interests and LDP over EPA
Farmers
Big Business,Medium and Small Firms
Labor Union
EPACON PRO
LDP
Three Societal Interests and DPJ over EPA
Farmers
Big Business,Medium and Small Firms
Labor Union
EPACON PRO
DPJ
Economic Regionalism will not be progressed under the DPJ government No support from Business (in favor of EPA) Support from Agriculture and Labor (oppose to EPA)
→No strong Force to pursue EPA, “in vain”
Earthquake……
Next step is to trace the process of policy-making and negotiations
(Tentative) Conclusion and Expectation
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