building a realistic banking system within a stock-flow coherent model marc lavoie university of...

Building a realistic banking system within a stock-flow coherent modelMarc Lavoie

University of Ottawa

(based on work with Wynne Godley)

Work in progress Part of a manuscript written with W.G.: Monetary economics: an integrated

approach to credit, money, income, production and wealth

One block among several other blocks:production firms blockhouseholds blockgovernment sector blockcentral bank sector block

Two PK banking models

The basic model Based on Godley CJE

1999 article Operational

The more realistic model

Adds several realistic features to the standard CJE model

Operational, but still fragile

PK vs Neoclassical banks PK banks Bank loans are key Banks accept all

deposits Banks provide all credit-

worthy loans Banks set deposit rates

which are endogenous loan rates are marked-

up over deposit rates

Neoclassical banks Asset allocators Make asset and liability

choices Banks have supply

functions of deposits and loans

Deposit and loan rates clear deposit and loan markets

The buffer principleAll sectors need a buffer that provides an adjustment factor

Firms: inventories and bank loans Households: holdings of money deposits Government: bills issued Central bank: residual purchaser of bills

or advances made to private banks Banks: bills held or advances obtained

from central bank

The balance sheet of Model INSOUT (Basic banks)

Hhholds Firms Govt Centralbank

Banks

Inventories +IN +IN

HPM +Hh H +Hb 0

Checkingdeposits

+M1h M1 0

Timedeposits

+M2h M2 0

Bills +Bh B +Bcb +Bb 0

Bonds +BLh.pbL BL.pBL 0

Loans L +L 0

Balance V 0 +GD 0 0 IN

0 0 0 0 0 0

The balance sheet of Model INSOUT (Basic banks)

Hhholds Firms Govt Central Banks

The banks balance sheet constraint Bbd = M1s + M2s - Ls - Hbd

Banks provide money deposits and loans on demand, and they must hold bank reserves Hbd ;

All elements of the banks’ balance sheet are predetermined, except for Treasury bills Bbd.

Hidden equation of system: Hbs = Hbd

Reserves are supplied on demand

The determination of interest rates The Treasury bill rate is set exogenously by the

central bank (or by Taylor rule) The bond rate is also set exogenously, or it can

be made endogenous The deposit rate is set by banks, based on a

reaction function that depends on the liquidity preference of banks

The lending rate is set by banks, with a markup on the deposit rate.

The banking liquidity ratio Banks compute a Banking liquidity ratio (BLR) BLR = T.Bills/Deposits This is the converse of Eichner’s 1986 degree

of liquidity pressure (loans/deposits) The BLR must be within a certain range

(bottom, top) in the medium run The BLR range is a reflection of bank liquidity

preference

Liquidity mechanism When banks have an insufficient amount of

bills relative to their liquidity preference, they increase interest rates on deposits, and induce households to trade their Treasury bills for bank deposits; this allows banks to recover a proper bills to deposits ratio.

When banks have a liquidity preference for bills, they raise the (bottom, top) thresholds

Determination of deposit rates Deposit rates rise as long as BLR < bottom Deposit rates diminish as long as BLR > top Under the following two conditions: There is a ceiling to deposit rates: they cannot

be any higher than bill rates There is a floor to loan rates: they cannot be

any lower than bill rates When these conditions are not met, the BLR

convention is inadequate system-wide

What happens when the bank liquidity ratio is inadequate system-wide ? In the overdraft system: banks pay little attention to

their relative holdings of T.Bills; the conventionnal target BLR will be modified or ignored.

In the asset-based system (anglo-saxon world), where bank liquidity ratios are important, there must be an escape market: this market is the commercial paper market; firms issue CP when loan rates are too high, and they retire CP when loan rates are low.

More realistic PK bank Banks issue equity Banks have retained earnings and net worth Banks make loans to consumers The loan markup over deposit rates is

endogenous Banks face a BIS-imposed capital adequacy

ratio (CAR) Banks may take advances from central bank Banks have labour costs

Two possible balance sheets of banks

Standard accounting Macro-economicaccounting

Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities

Bb M1 Bb M1

L M2 L M2

Hb Ab Hb Ab

OFb eb.peb

Total assets = TotalLiabilities

Assets - Liabilities =Vb

Table 11.1: The balance sheet of Model COMP

Households Firms Govt Centralbank

Banks

Inventories +IN IN

Fixedcapital

+K K

HPM +Hh H +Hb 0

Demanddeposits

+M1h M1 0

Timedeposits

+M2h M2 0

Advances +A Ab 0

Bills +Bh B +Bcb +Bb 0

Bonds +BLh.pbL BL.pBL 0

Commercialpaper

+CPh CP 0

Equities offirms

+ef.pef ef.pef 0

Equities ofbanks

+eb.peb eb.peb 0

Loans L +L 0

Balance Vh Vf Vg 0 Vb (IN+K)

0 0 0 0 0 0

The determination of the own funds of banks

OFb = OFb-1 + FUb + ebs.peb - NPL OF = own funds FU = retained earnings ebs = new issues of bank shares NPL = non-performing loans

(bankrupcies)

Realistic banks target profits Banks need to make a definite amount of

profits, first to cover the dividends payments which their household shareholders view as desirable, and secondly to augment their own funds in line with the BIS rules on capital adequacy ratios. These two requirements, given the interest rates administered by the central bank, determine the spread between the rate of interest on loans and the rate of interest on deposits.

Targets of banks

FbT = FUb

T + FDbT

FDbT = rdb.OFb-1 or rdb.ebs-1 .peb

e-1

CAR = OFb / Ls CARM = minimum capital adequacy ratio CART = target capital adequacy ratio OFb

T = CART.Ls-1

If CARM < CAR-1 < CART

FUbT = [(OFb

T - (OFb-1 + ebs.pebe-1)]

If CAR-1 > CART, = 0

If CAR-1 < CARM , =1

Determination of loan rates

Fb = rl.Ls-1 + rb-1.Bbd-1 - rm.M2s-1 - ra-1.Abd-1 - WBb

realized profits of banks; rl = rm + the rate of interest on loans The endogenous markup is obtained by

equalizing the realized profits to the target amount of bank profits ; all else equal, low realized CARs require higher markups.

The deposit rate is determined as in the basic model, on the basis of banks’ liquidity preference

Loans and deposits

The relationship between loans and deposits, through the balance sheet constraint of banks, is given by the compulsory reserve ratio (res), the actual bank liquidity ratio (blr) and the actual capital adequacy ratio (car):

L/M = (1 - res - blr)/(1 - car) Only by fluke would that ratio be 1.

Problems with the realistic banks It is much more difficult to find a reference steady state; Falling loans may actually lead to rising loan markups on

deposit rates, due to the shrinking profit base that absorbs fixed costs;

Loans to consumers create instabilities as well, because these loans are only partially absorbed by household deposits;

Financial assets held by firms may be a partial solution, but this creates problems with regards to the determination of prices

Commercial paper issued by firms help to stabilize interest rates.

Three experiments with the complete model (CP) Raise (again) compulsory reserve

requirements Introduce random demand shocks Raise the target stock of fixed capital