brian fuchs, climatologist national drought mitigation center university of nebraska-lincoln drought...

Brian Fuchs, Climatologist National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Drought Monitoring: Challenges in the Western United

States

The Climate Impacts GroupAnnual Fall Forecasting Meeting

October 22, 2009Boise, Idaho

The U.S. Drought MonitorSince 1999, NOAA (CPC and NCDC), USDA, and the NDMC have produced a weekly composite drought map -- the U.S. Drought

Monitor -- with input from numerous federal and non-federal partners

A partnership between the NDMC, USDA and NOAA’s CPC, NCDC, and RCC’s (authors)Incorporate relevant information and products from all entities (and levels of government) dealing with drought (RCC’s, SC’s, federal/state agencies, etc.) (experts)

The Drought Monitor is updated weekly and provides a general up-to-date summary of current drought conditions across the 50 states, Puerto Rico and the Pacific possessions

The Drought Monitor Concept

A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map

Trying to capture these characteristics:the drought’s magnitude (duration + intensity)

spatial extent

probability of occurrence

Impacts

Rates drought intensity by

Percentile Rankings

The Drought Monitor Concept

Original Objectives

“Fujita-like” scale

NOT a forecast!

NOT a drought declaration!

Identify impacts (A, H)

Assessment of current conditions

Incorporate local expert input

Be as objective as possible

Key Variables For Monitoring Drought

climate datasoil moisturestream flowground waterreservoir and lake levelssnow packshort, medium, and long range forecastsvegetation health/stress and fire danger

U.S. Drought Monitor Integrates Key Drought Indicators:

- Palmer Drought Index- SPI- KBDI- Modeled Soil Moisture- 7-Day Avg. Streamflow- Precipitation Anomalies

Growing Season:- Crop Moisture Index- Sat. Veg. Health Index- Soil Moisture- Mesonet data

In The West:- SWSI- Reservoir levels- Snowpack- Streamflow

Created in ArcGIS

Indices for“The West”

USGS Streamflow CPC Daily Soil Model

Satellite Veg Health

SPI Drought Index USDA Soil Ratings

Principal Drought Monitor InputsPrincipal Drought Monitor Inputs

Palmer Drought Index

Use of the DM in Decision Making

USDA Dried Milk Program 2002-03

USDA CRP Release hot spot trigger

Numerous states use as a drought trigger (Governor’s declarations)

2006 USDA Livestock Assistance

2006 IRS (tax deferral on livestock losses)

Challenges?

NRCS Data (RAWS & SNOTEL) Data Density

Basin DataSWSI not being calculated for all basins

State DataWell/Reservoir Data sets not centralized

Climate Change

Population Shifts

New Efforts ?California Drought Tracker

WASHINGTON –Secretary of the Interior Dirk Kempthorne has approved $9.2 million in Water 2025 Challenge Grants for water conservation projects across the West.

The grants will help fund 44 projects in 11 states. Including the matching contributions of non-federal partners, the selected projects represent a combined investment of more than $32 million in water management improvements.

July 26, 2007 www.doi.gov/water2025.

Stresses on Western Water

Population Projections (2000-2030)

Greatest increases expected in the driest states.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

NEEDS: FRESH WATER!

It’s all about the water!

Thank you!

Please visit us at:http://drought.unl.edu/

Please contact me at:bfuchs2@unl.edu

National Drought Mitigation Centerhttp://drought.unl.edu/dm