breaking myths, establishing evidence danny dorling – sheffield university race and religion...
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Breaking Myths, Establishing EvidenceDanny Dorling – Sheffield University
Race and Religion Statistics from the Census: What can you make of them?Local Government Association, Smith
Square, 8/12/2003
Some Context to Census
How myths can begin:
Letter to Clement Atlee, Prime Minister, signed by 11 Labour MPs 1948:
“An influx of coloured people domiciled here is likely to impair the harmony, strength and cohesion of our public and social life and to cause discord and unhappiness among all concerned”
Allaying fears about numbers
Margaret Thatcher 1978. Pre-election speech:
“People are really rather afraid that this country might be rather swamped by people with a different culture… the British character has done so much for democracy, for law, and done so much throughout the world, that if there is any fear that it might be swamped, people are going to react and be rather hostile to those coming in. So if you want good race relations, you’ve got to allay people’s fears about numbers”
Swamping half a century on
David Blunkett, Secretary of State at the Home Office, 2002 (The Today Program, BBC Radio Four 24/04/02):
"Whilst they're going through the process, the children will be educated on the site, which will be open. People will be able to come and go, but importantly not swamping the local school."
What Censuses Count
Census
(Britain)
Minority – as defined
At the time of each
Census and used..
Count Population Share
1971 Born in or both parents born in the New Commonwealth
2,287,804 53,978,598 4.24%
1981 Born in the New Commonwealth or Pakistan
1,513,345 53,555,566 2.83%
1991 Non-white ethnic minority group
3,011,305 54,856,166 5.49%
1981 Census White Paper
• “In addition, there is a need for authoritative and reliable information about the main ethnic minorities. In order to help in carrying out their responsibilities under the Race Relations Act, and in developing effective social policies, the Government and local authorities need to know how the family structure, housing, education, employment and unemployment of the ethnic minorities compare with the conditions in the population as a whole. Any study of community relations must start from a knowledge of the demographic, social and economic characteristics of the ethnic minorities and, in particular, from knowledge of changes in their geographical distribution. The census, which is comprehensive and confidential, would provide much of this basic information” (Command Paper 7146, 1978, paragraph 24).
The 1991 Ethnicity Question
Ethnic Group White Black-Caribbean Please tick the appropriate box Black-African Black-Other
(please describe) If the person is descended from more than Indian one ethnic or racial group, please tick the Pakistani group to which the person considers he/she Bangladeshi belongs, or tick the ‘Any other ethnic group’ Chinese box and describe the person’s ancestry in the space provided
Any other ethnic group (please describe )
2001 Ethnicity QuestionWhat is your ethnic group? Choose ONE section from A to E, then √ the appropriate box to indicate your cultural background.
A
White
British
Irish
B
Any other White background
please write in
Mixed
White and Black Caribbean
White and Black African
White and Asian
Any other Mixed background
please write in
C Asian or Asian British
Indian Pakistani
D
Bangladeshi
Any other Asian background
please write in
Black or Black British
Caribbean African
E
Any other Black background
please write in
Chinese or other ethnic group
Chinese
Any other, please write in
2001 religion questionWhat is your religion? This question is voluntary. √ one box only
None
Christian (including Church of England, Catholic, Protestant and all other Christian denominations)
Buddhist
Hindu
Jewish
Muslim
Sikh
Any other religion, please write in
What ‘Nots’ 2001 Counted
Census
(Britain)
Minority – as defined
At the time of each
Census and used..
Count Population Share
2001 Not White British, White Other, White Irish nor White Scottish
4,602,730 57,103,929 8.06%
2001 Not White, Other, nor Mixed
3,374,887 57,103,929 5.91%
2001 Religion – not none, Christian, nor Jedi
2,983,555 57,103,929 5.22%
Censuses are only snapshots
Other Sources are needed
-20.00% 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%
Black Caribbean 566 to 561
White 44,690 to 44,679
Indian 866 to 1,029
Chinese 155 to 221
Pakistani 480 to 707
Bangladeshi 168 to 275
Other 708 to 1,191
Black African 243 to 476
Natural change from 1991 to 2001
(Indirect estimation of) Net Migration
Total change
size of ethnic group1991to 2001 (000s)
Dispersal in EnglandPakistani
Quintile Population
in 1991 % in
1991
Number of
Districts Population
in 2001 Growth
91-01 1 Lowest 95,970 0% 312 149,794 +56% 2 Low 96,789 2% 20 138,804 +43% 3 Medium 93,565 4% 13 136,969 +46% 4 High 57,765 6% 5 82,791 +43% 5 Highest 138,267 8% 4 198,395 +43% Total 482,356 1% 354 706,752 +47%
Indian
Quintile Population
in 1991 % in
1991
Number of
Districts Population
in 2001 Growth
91-01 1 Lowest 173,116 0% 300 228,265 +32% 2 Low 175,015 3% 33 192,542 +10% 3 Medium 155,522 6% 9 181,708 +17% 4 High 182,288 10% 8 210,306 +15% 5 Highest 185,311 18% 4 215,719 +16% Total 871,252 2% 354 1,028,539 +18%
What Stereotypes are wrong?
• Who’s married with children
• Who’s qualified
• Who has a degree
• Who has no qualifications
• How are the geographies of ethnic groups changing and what are the geographies of religious groups identified in 2001?
Who with children is married?
Households with children, England and Wales, 2001
Households with children in England and Wales 2001
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Caribbean/ WhiteOther Black
CaribbeanAfrican /White
AfricanOther MixedAsian /White
IrishALL HOUSEHOLDS
White BritonPakistani
BangladeshiOther AsianOther White
OtherIndian
Chinese
Note: Black: married couple; dark grey: cohabiting couple; light grey: lone parent; white: other. Source: 2001 Census, table ST106, households with dependent children.
Who lacks qualifications?
Qualifications at ages 25-34 in England & W ales, 2001
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
BangladeshiCaribbean/WWhite Briton
PakistaniCaribbean
Other BlackA f rican/White
Other AsianAsian/White
IndianA f rican
Other MixedIrish
OtherChinese
Other WhiteTotal
Source: 2001 Census Standard Table 117. Note: black = low, dark grey=medium.
Who will have a degree?
Holding degree s at ages 25-34 in England and Wales , 2001 (and 2010)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Bangladeshi
Caribbean/White
White Briton
Caribbean
Other Black
Pakistani
A f rican/White
Other Asian
Asian/White
A f rican
Irish
Other Mixed
Indian
Other
Other White
Chinese
Total
Source: 2001 Census Standard Table 117. Note: black = 2001, dark grey=2010. [2010 is simply predicted as three times the % with degrees aged 16-24 in 2001]
Who will have no qualifications?
No Qualifications at age s 25-34 and 16-24 in England and Wale s , 2001
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Irish
Other White
Other Mixed
Caribbean
A f rican
Chinese
White Briton
Asian/White
Indian
Other Black
A f rican/White
Other Asian
Caribbean/White
Other
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Total
Source: 2001 Census Standard Table 117. Note: black = 25-34, grey=16-24.
Finally some indexes
• Indexes can be more trouble than they are worth – are very crude summaries.
• Very slight changes to definitions, formulae, areas studied have huge effects.
• But, they will be constructed so is it possible to work out the least worse indexes to use?
• Three are used here, preferred in bold.
A 1991-2001 categorisationOur 8 simple categories
Britain 1991 England & Wales 2001 Scotland 2001
African Black African Black or Black British - African African
Bangladeshi Bangladeshi Bangladeshi Bangladeshi
Caribbean Black -Caribbean Black or Black British - Caribbean Caribbean
Chinese Chinese Chinese Chinese
Indian Asian - Indian Asian or Asian British - Indian Indian
Pakistani Asian - Pakistani Asian or Asian British - Pakistani Pakistani
Other Asian - Other
Black - Other
Other_Other
All Mixed and Other Groups All Mixed and Other Groups
White White White - Irish
White - Other
White - British
Other White
Other White British
White - Irish
White - Scottish
A simple Geography of Religion
This is a cartogram of the 84 European constituencies not used for voting in 1999. Each area is labelled by which group is most numerous there once the national average proportion of that group is taken into account.
Christian C
N N No religion N
N N N Muslim M
N N N Hindu H
C C Sikh S
C C Jewish J
C N C
C M M C
C C M N C C
C M C C N C
C C C C H N C
C S S M N M C
C N C S C J C C
N N N C C H J M C
C C N S M M
C C C S N N N C
C C C H C
C C N
Some Indices• The table below shows three indices of dispersal by district for each
group in England and Wales. The first (1) is the index of segregation, the proportion who would have to move district to be evenly spread; the second is the index of isolation (2), the chance of a person of a particular religion meeting another person of their religion, at random by district; the third (3) is an index of separation, the index of isolation adjusted for the national size of the religious group which can vary from 0% to 100%.
Christian Buddhist Hindu Jewish Muslim Sikh Other None Not say
1 4.8% 29.8% 56.2% 62.1% 54.2% 62.5% 19.5% 10.2%4.7%
2 73% 0.5% 6.4% 5.1% 10.3% 3.9% 0.4% 15.8%7.8%
3 3.9% 0.2% 5.4% 4.6% 7.6% 3.3% 0.1% 1.2%0.1%
A simple Geography of Ethnicity
This is a cartogram of the 84 European constituencies not used for voting in 1999. Each area is labelled by which group is most numerous there once the national average proportion of that group is taken into account. The map is almost unchanged as compared to that which can be drawn for 1991 and in contrast to other maps of change
White W
W W Pakistani P
W W W Indian I
W W W Black African Ba
W W Black Caribbean Bc
W W Bangladeshi B
P P W
P P P W
W I P P W W
W P W W Bc W
W W W W I W W
W I I P W P W
W W W I W W W W
W W W W W I Ba B W
W W W I Ba I
W W W I Bc Ba Ba W
W W W Bc W
W W W
Indices at LA level (E&W)
E&W African B/deshi C/bean Chinese Indian P/stani White OtherWhite+Other
1991
Segregation 66% 60% 61% 32% 57% 61% 3% 42% 3%
Isolation 4% 6% 5% 1% 8% 4% 94% 4% 96%
Separation 3% 6% 4% 0% 7% 4% 13% 2% 11%
2001
Segregation 67% 61% 62% 32% 55% 61% 5% 38% 4%
Isolation 7% 10% 5% 1% 9% 6% 93% 5% 95%
Separation 6% 9% 4% 0% 7% 5% 16% 3% 14%
change
Segregation 1% 1% 1% 0% -2% 0% 1% -4% 1%
Isolation 3% 4% 0% 0% 1% 2% -2% 1% -1%
Separation 3% 3% 0% 0% 1% 1% 4% 1% 3%
Indices at Ward Level
E&W African B/deshi C/bean Chinese Indian P/stani White OtherWhite+Other
1991
Segregation 71% 74% 68% 42% 64% 74% 4% 48% 3%
Isolation 4% 11% 8% 1% 15% 14% 95% 4% 96%
Separation 4% 11% 7% 1% 14% 14% 21% 3% 20%
2001
Segregation 70% 71% 66% 41% 61% 71% 5% 42% 4%
Isolation 8% 14% 7% 1% 15% 17% 93% 6% 95%
Separation 7% 13% 6% 1% 14% 16% 25% 3% 23%
change
Segregation -1% -2% -2% -1% -3% -3% 1% -6% 1%
Isolation 4% 3% -1% 0% 0% 3% -2% 1% -1%
Separation 3% 3% -1% 0% 0% 3% 3% 0% 3%
White % and change 91-01
White 2001 %39 - 6667 - 8182 - 9091 - 9697 - 100
White change %-18 - -5-4.9 - -2-1.9 - -1-0.9 - -0.10 - 1
Conclusions
• We did not ask these questions for entirely altruistic reasons; context matters greatly.
• There are thousands of myths to be exposed and legends to be generated.
• Rather than “swamping” we see “spreading slowly into a White swamp”.
• However, there are very many different stories in different places.
White % and change 91-01
White 2001 %39 - 6667 - 8182 - 9091 - 9697 - 100
White change %-18 - -5-4.9 - -2-1.9 - -1-0.9 - -0.10 - 1
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