bnp mf fundfacts macro-ecodashbord august 24 2020 · macro-economic dashboard while the urban...

Macro-Economic Dashboard

While the urban unemployment continues to fall rural

unemployment has risen marginally to 7.24% from 6.6% as of Aug 14 though

it is still lower than urban unemployment. Meanwhile, high-frequency indicators

available for the rural economy are suggesting stable

conditions in Rural India.

In June 2020, IIP growth contracted by 16.6% when

compared with 1.3% growth in June 2019. However, when compared with the previous month, the contraction has

moderated. This can be ascribed to partial resumption of

activities in June 2020 after the country began the unlocking

phase. There has been a broad based contraction across

sectors except consumer non-durables which grew by 14%.

Tractors sales, a leading indicator of rural sentiment,

witnessed a sharp increase in July 2020. The surplus monsoon

and healthy Kharif sowing will strengthen rural recovery.

Passenger vehicle and two wheeler growth have shown

improvement sequentially but yoy is still negative.

Imports normalised faster than exports in July. A defi cit of USD 4.8billion was recorded in July vs. a surplus of USD 0.8bn in June. Exports fell by 10.2%

YoY (vs. -12.4% in June) and imports declined by 28.4% (vs.

-47.6% in June). The recovery in imports was led by sequential

gains across all segments. Within exports, non-oil exports

contracted at a slower pace even as oil exports fell more.

Aug19

Sep19

Oct19

Nov19

Dec19

Jan20

Feb20

Mar20

Apr20

May20

Jun20

Jul20

Aug20

BankingCurrency in circulation (%YoY) 12.9 13.6 15.1 12.8 11.9 11.9 11.5 14.5 15.7 18.4 20.6 22.2 M3 (%YoY) 9.8 9.6 10.6 9.8 10.4 11.2 10.2 8.9 10.7 11.5 12.5 13.5 Bank non-food credit growth (%YoY) 10.1 8.6 8.8 6.9 6.7 8.0 6.9 6.1 6.7 5.5 5.4 6.1 5.5 Personal credit (%YoY) 15.6 16.6 17.2 16.4 15.9 16.9 17.0 15.0 12.1 10.6 10.5 Credit to industry (%YoY) 3.9 2.7 3.4 2.4 1.6 2.5 0.7 0.7 1.7 1.7 2.2 Credit to services (%YoY) 13.3 7.3 6.5 4.8 6.2 8.9 6.9 7.4 11.2 11.2 10.7 Deposit growth (%YoY) 9.7 9.4 10.3 8.3 9.1 11.1 10.2 7.9 9.9 9.7 11.3 12.1 Credit to deposit ratio (%) 75.74 75.69 75.83 75.51 76.23 75.85 75.83 76.44 74.9 73.3 73.6 72.5 10 year G-Sec yields (%) 6.56 6.70 6.45 6.47 6.55 6.60 6.4 6.1 6.1 5.76 5.89 5.84 5.95Weighted average lending rate of banks (%) 10.32 10.29 10.29 10.27 10.14 10.15 10.11 10.00 9.89 9.88 9.74Weighted average deposit rate of banks (%) 6.87 6.84 6.75 6.68 6.55 6.52 6.45 6.38 6.07 6.12 6.00Median MCLR (%) 8.50 8.45 8.35 8.31 8.30 8.25 8.21 8.20 8.00 7.85 7.68 7.58Commercial Paper issuance (%YoY) (21.4) (17.3) (21.3) (18.2) (16.8) (20.2) (23.2) (28.7) (23.1) (22.9) (22.3) (26.4)IndustryCement production (%YoY) (5.1) (1.9) (7.7) 4.3 5.4 5.1 7.8 (25.1) (85.2) (21.4) (6.9)Steel production (%YoY) 3.81 (1.5) (1.9) 7.0 8.7 1.6 2.9 (24.1) (78.7) (43.1) (33.8)IIP (%YoY) (1.4) (4.3) (4.0) 1.8 0.1 2.1 4.5 (16.7) (57.6) (33.9) (16.6) Mining (%YoY) 0.0 (8.5) (8.0) 1.8 5.7 4.3 10.0 0.0 (27.0) (20.5) (19.8) Manufacturing (%YoY) (1.6) (3.9) (2.3) 2.7 (0.7) 1.6 3.2 (20.6) (67.1) (38.4) (17.1) Electricity (%YoY) (0.9) (2.6) (12.2) (5.0) (0.1) 3.1 8.1 (6.8) (23.0) (14.9) (10.0)Capital goods production (%YoY) (20.9) (20.3) (22.0) (8.6) (18.0) (4.3) (9.7) (38.3) (92.6) (65.2) (36.9)Consumer durable production (%YoY) (9.1) (9.9) (18.8) (1.6) (5.4) (3.8) (6.4) (36.5) (96.0) (69.4) (35.5)Consumer non-durable production (%YoY) 3.1 (0.4) (1.8) 1.5 (3.9) (0.3) 0.0 (20.2) (48.6) (11.1) 14.0 PMI Manufacturing Index 51.4 51.4 50.6 51.2 52.7 55.3 54.5 51.8 27.4 30.8 47.2 46PMI Services Index 52.4 48.7 49.2 52.7 53.3 55.5 57.5 49.3 5.4 12.6 33.7 34.2PMI Composite Index 52.6 49.8 49.6 52.7 53.7 56.3 57.6 50.6 7.2 14.8 37.8 37.2 ConsumerRural wage (%YoY) 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.6 3.3 4.5 4.5 4.0 Urban unemployment (%) 9.7 9.6 8.3 8.9 9.0 9.7 8.7 9.4 25.0 25.8 12.0 9.2 9.6Rural unemployment (%) 7.5 6.0 8.0 6.5 6.9 6.1 7.3 8.4 22.9 22.5 10.5 6.7 7.2Naukri job speak index (%YoY) 0.1 7.6 1.5 15.2 10.5 5.8 (0.0) (17.8) (61.6) (61.2) (44.4) (47.3)Motorvehicle sales (%YoY) (23.5) (22.4) (12.8) (12.1) (13.1) (13.8) (19.1) (45.0) (98.0) (84.2) (45.5) (25.5) Passenger vehicle (%YoY) (31.6) (23.7) 0.3 (0.8) (1.2) (6.2) (7.6) (51.0) (100.0) (86.4) (53.5) (12.8) Commercial vehicle (%YoY) (38.7) (39.1) (23.3) (15.0) (12.3) (14.0) (32.9) (88.1) (97.8) (90.0) (80.0) (72.2) Two wheeler (%YoY) (22.2) (22.1) (14.4) (14.3) (16.6) (16.1) (19.8) (39.8) (96.2) (82.9) (41.3) (22.3)Tractor sales (16.5) (4.7) (5.0) (13.2) 2.4 4.8 21.3 (49.9) (79.4) 4.0 22.4 38.5 Petrol consumption (%YoY) 8.9 6.2 8.9 9.3 3.2 3.5 11.3 (16.4) (60.4) (35.3) (13.4) (10.2)Diesel consumption (%YoY) (0.9) (3.3) (7.0) 9.1 (0.1) (1.8) 6.6 (24.2) (55.6) (29.4) (15.3) (19.1)Air traffi c (%YoY) 3.9 1.5 4.3 11.5 2.6 2.5 9.0 (32.8) (100.0) (97.7) (83.5)Foreign tourist arrivals (%YoY) 1.6 4.3 6.1 7.8 2.8 1.3 (6.6) (66.4) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)FreightMajor port tarffi c (%YoY) 1.2 (0.5) (5.4) (0.3) 6.1 2.5 4.5 (5.1) (21.1) (23.3) (14.5) (13.2)Rail freight traffi c (%YoY) (6.1) (6.6) (8.1) 0.9 4.3 3.0 6.5 (13.9) (35.3) (21.3) (7.7) (4.6)E-way bills generated (%YoY) 4.6 8.9 (1.2) 18.5 10.8 11.6 14.3 (26.0) (83.6) (53.0) (12.7) (7.3)Foreign TradeExport growth (%YoY) (6.2) (6.3) (0.6) (0.5) (1.6) (1.7) 2.9 (34.6) (60.3) (36.2) (12.4) (10.2)Import growth (%YoY) (13.4) (12.8) (16.3) (12.7) (8.8) (0.8) 2.5 (28.7) (58.6) (52.4) (47.6) (28.4)Non-oil, non-gold imports (%YoY) (8.8) (6.5) (8.3) (10.5) (8.9) (4.8) (1.0) (30.5) (53.6) (36.4) (41.4) (29.1)Capital goods imports (%YoY) (9.3) 13.1 (0.8) (4.1) (5.2) 9.1 8.3 (36.3) (55.4) (33.9) (42.6) (30.1)FiscalCentral Government expenditure (%YoY) 25.9 34.3 9.1 5.5 32.3 (6.4) 5.2 75.0 20.6 (20.7) 45.7 Indirect tax (%YoY) 10.1 (3.3) (18.7) 6.5 4.2 14.2 13.1 3.8 (74.9) (42.8) (3.21)Infl ationCPI (%YoY) 3.3 4.0 4.62 5.5 7.4 7.6 6.6 5.9 7.2 6.3 6.2 6.9 Core CPI (%YoY) 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.9 WPI (%YoY) 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 2.59 3.1 2.3 0.4 (1.6) (3.4) (1.8) (0.6)

Negative ( + ) 27 33 34 23 24 17 17 35 37 38 33 21 1Positive ( + ) 23 17 16 27 26 33 33 15 12 11 16 10 3

Negative Watch Neutral Positive Source: BNPP AMC, RBI, Central Statistical Organisation, Government of India, Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

The data mentioned above is as per their date of release and availability as on August 24, 2020.The data mentioned above is as per their date of release and availability as on August 24, 2020.

While the urban unemployment continues to fall rural

unemployment has risen marginally to 7.24% from 6.6% as of Aug 14 though

it is still lower than urban unemployment. Meanwhile, high-frequency indicators

available for the rural economy are suggesting stable

conditions in Rural India.

In June 2020, IIP growth contracted by 16.6% when

compared with 1.3% growth in June 2019. However, when compared with the previous

th, the contraction has his can be ascribed

r the ocking a broad ross

except consumer non-ra lbleses wwhh yby 114%4%.

Tractors sales, a leading indicator of rural sentiment,

witnessed a sharp increase in July 2020. The surplus monsoon

and healthy Kharif sowing will strengthen rural recovery.

Passenger vehicle and two wheeler growth have shown

improvement sequentially but yoy is still negative.

Imports normalised faster than exports in July. A defi cit of USD 4.8billion was recorded in July vs. a surplus of USD 0.8bn in June. Exports fell by 10.2%

YoY (vs. -12.4% in June) and imports declined by 28.4% (vs.

-47.6% in June). The recovery in imports was led by sequential

gains across all segments. Within exports, non-oil exports

contracted at a slower pace even as oil exports fell more.

Aug19

Sep19

Oct19

Nov19

Dec19

Jan20

Feb20

Mar20

Apr20

May20

Jun20

Jul20

Aug20

BankingCurrency in circulation (%YoY) 12.9 13.6 15.1 12.8 11.9 11.9 11.5 14.5 15.7 18.4 20.6 22.2 M3 (%YoY) 9.8 9.6 10.6 9.8 10.4 11.2 10.2 8.9 10.7 11 13 5Bank non-food credit growth (%YoY) 10.1 8.6 8.8 6.9 6.7 8.0 6.9 6.1 6.7 5.5 Personal credit (%YoY) 15.6 16.6 17.2 16.4 15.9 16.9 17.0 15.0 12.1 10.6 10.5 Credit to industry (%YoY) 3.9 2.7 3.4 2.4 1.6 2.5 0.7 0.7 1.7 1.7 2.2 Credit to services (%YoY) 13.3 7.3 6.5 4.8 6.2 8.9 6.9 7.4 11.2 11.2 10.7Deposit growth (%YoY) 9.7 9.4 10.3 8.3 9.1 11.1 10.2 7.9 9.9 9.7 11.3 12.1Credit to deposit ratio (%) 75.74 75.69 75.83 75.51 76.23 75.85 75.83 76.44 74.9 73.3 73.6 72.5 10 year G-Sec yields (%) 6.56 6.70 6.45 6.47 6.55 6.60 6.4 6.1 6.1 5.76 5.89Weighted average lending rate of banks (%) 10.32 10.29 10.29 10.27 10.14 10.15 10.11 10.00 9.89 9 8Weighted average deposit rate of banks (%) 6.87 6.84 6.75 6.68 6.55 6.52 6.45 6.38 6Median MCLR (%) 8.50 8.45 8.35 8.31 8.30 8.25 8.21 8 .00 7.85 7.68 7.58Commercial Paper issuance (%YoY) (21.4) (17.3) (21.3) (18.2) (16.8) (20.2) (23.2) (28.7) (23.1) (22.9) (22.3) (26.4)IndustryCement production (%YoY) (5.1) (1.9) (7.7) 4.3 5.4 5.1 7.8 (25.1) (85.2) (21.4) (6.9)Steel production (%YoY) 3.81 (1.5) (1 9 7.0 8.7 1.6 2.9 (24.1) (78.7) (43.1) (33.8)IIP (%YoY) (1.4) (4.3 1.8 0 10.1 2.1 4.5 (16.7) (57.6) (33.9) (16(16 6).6) Mining (%YoY) 0.0 1.8 5.7 4.3 10.0 0.0 (27.0) (20.5) (19.8) Manufacturing (%Y 2 7 (0.7) 1.6 3.2 (20.6) (67.1) (38.4) (17.1) Electricity (%YoY) 3 1 8.1 (6.8) (23.0) (14.9) (10.0)Capital goods production (%YoY) 7) (38.3) (92.6) (65.2) (36.9)Consumer durable production (%Y 5) (96.0) (69.4) (35.5)Consumer non-durable product (1.8) 1.5 (3.9) (0.3) 0.0 (20.2) (48.6) (11.1) 14.0PMI Manufacturing Index 4 50.6 51.2 52.7 55.3 54.5 51.8 27.4 30.8 47.2 46PMI Services Index 7 49.2 52.7 53.3 55.5 57.5 49.3 5.4 12.6 33.7 34.2PMI Composite Index 9.8 49.6 52.7 53.7 56.3 57.6 50.6 7.2 14.8 37.8 37.2 ConsumerRural wage (%YoY) 3.5 2.8 2.6 3.3 4.5 4.5 4.0 Urban unemployment (%) 9.6 8.3 8.9 9.0 9.7 8.7 9.4 25.0 25.8 12.0 9.2 9.6Rural unemployment (%) 7 6.0 8.0 6.5 6.9 6.1 7.3 8.4 22.9 22.5 10.5 6.7 7.2Naukri job speak index (%YoY) 0.1 7.6 1.5 15.2 10.5 5.8 (0.0) (17.8) (61.6) (61.2) (44.4) (47.3)Motorvehicle sales (%YoY) (23.5) (22.4) (12.8) (12.1) (13.1) (13.8) (19.1) (45.0) (98.0) (84.2) (45.5) (25.5) Passenger vehicle (%YoY) (31.6) (23.7) 0.3 (0.8) (1.2) (6.2) (7.6) (51.0) (100.0) (86.4) (53.5) (12.8) Commercial vehicle (%YoY) (38.7) (39.1) (23.3) (15.0) (12.3) (14.0) (32.9) (88.1) (97.8) (90.0) (80.0) (72.2) Two wheeler (%YoY) (22.2) (22.1) (14.4) (14.3) (16.6) (16.1) (19.8) (39.8) (96.2) (82.9) (41.3) (22.3)Tractor sales (16.5) (4.7) (5.0) (13.2) 2.4 4.8 21.3 (49.9) (79.4) 4.0 22.4 38.5Petrol consumption (%YoY) 8.9 6.2 8.9 9.3 3.2 3.5 11.3 (16.4) (60.4) (35.3) (13.4) (10.2)Diesel consumption (%YoY) (0.9) (3.3) (7.0) 9.1 (0.1) (1.8) 6.6 (24.2) (55.6) (29.4) (15.3) (19.1)Air traffi c (%YoY) 3.9 1.5 4.3 11.5 2.6 2.5 9.0 (32.8) (100.0) (97.7) (83.5)Foreign tourist arrivals (%YoY) 1.6 4.3 6.1 7.8 2.8 1.3 (6.6) (66.4) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)FreightMajor port tarffi c (%YoY) 1.2 (0.5) (5.4) (0.3) 6.1 2.5 4.5 (5.1) (21.1) (23.3) (14.5) (13.2)Rail frei tr c (%YoY) (6.1) (6.6) (8.1) 0.9 4.3 3.0 6.5 (13.9) (35.3) (21.3) (7.7) (4.6)E-way b 4.6 8.9 (1.2) 18.5 10.8 11.6 14.3 (26.0) (83.6) (53.0) (12.7) (7.3)

(6.2) (6.3) (0.6) (0.5) (1.6) (1.7) 2.9 (34.6) (60.3) (36.2) (12.4) (10.2)Imp (13.4) (12.8) (16.3) (12.7) (8.8) (0.8) 2.5 (28.7) (58.6) (52.4) (47.6) (28.4)Non-oil, non-gold imports (%YoY) (8.8) (6.5) (8.3) (10.5) (8.9) (4.8) (1.0 30.5) (53.6) (36.4) (41.4) (29.1)Capital goods (9.3) 13.1 (0.8) (4.1) (5.2) 9.1 8 36.3) 5.4) (33.9) (42.6) (30.1)FiscalCentral Government expenditure (%YoY) 5.9 34.3 9.1 5.5 32 3 ( 5.0 20.6 (20.7) 45.7Indirect tax (%YoY) 10.1 (3.3) (18.7) 8 (74.9) (42.8) (3.21)Infl ationCPI (%YoY) 3.3 4.0 4.62 5.5 7.6 6.6 5.9 7.2 6.3 6.2 6.9 Core CPI (%YoY) 4.3 4.0 3.5 3 3.7 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.9 WPI (%YoY) 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 2.59 3.1 2.3 0.4 (1.6) (3.4) (1.8) (0.6)

Negative ( + ) 27 33 34 23 24 17 17 35 37 38 33 21 1Positive ( + ) 23 17 16 27 26 33 33 15 12 11 16 10 3

Negative Watch Neutral Positive Source: BNPP AMC, RBI, Central Statistical Organisation, Government of India, Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

The data mentioned above is as per their date of release and availability as on August 24 2020

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