bit by bit: issues of future technology and cultural development

Bit By Bit: Issues of Future Technology and Cultural

Development

Jeremy Pesner

My Background Computer Science undergraduate

BS, Dickinson College, 2009 Tech Policy graduate

MA, Georgetown University, 2013 Work for the government

(but that's not important here) Research focuses around technological

innovation and human-computer interaction

Three Major Issues I Will Cover

How the customizability of technology is “leaking” into the physical world

Where the next long, long term but game-changing technological innovation will come from

Major issues of an increasingly platform-based development culture

...and then I'll answer your questions

The Real Evolution of Technology

“I'm sorry Dave, I can't let you do that.”

Technology of the Past

“How can I help you?”

Technology Today

What would you like to change?

Young People Want Control

Younger Generations Are “Programming” Life

Actively shaping the world to suits their whims Interacting with celebrities formerly beyond

their reach (via Twitter, AMAs, etc.) Entrepreneurs writing new rules are the new

rockstars Software is cool now (wish my 10-year-old

self knew this) How many (more) enshrined institutions will

decay as a result of this?

The Next Long, Long Term Technological Innovation

Internet was created by ongoing partnership between government & academia

Took several decades before it matured to the point where the public took notice

For much of the developed world, has ushered in nothing less than an entire new paradigm of thought

...but will we get another innovation like this? Let's talk about R&D

R - Changing Nature of Research Funding

ssti.org

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Federal R&D in the Budget and the EconomyOutlays as share of total, 1962 - 2016

R&D as a Share of the Federal Budget (Left Scale) R&D as a Share of GDP (Right Scale)

Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2016. FY 2016 is the President's request. © 2015 AAAS

R - Pasteur's Quadrant

(keep this in mind if you want to bring up the Diamandis NIH statement)

D – Why We Can't Solve Big Problems

“We wanted flying cars – instead we got 140 characters.” - Peter Thiel, Founders Fund

60-70s VC model funded IT & biotech in their infancy with big hopes for the future

The Internet was so successful because it wasn't designed to do one thing in particular

Modern VC model prioritizes clear solutions and 1-3 year ROI

http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/429690/why-we-cant-solve-big-problems

The one exception...

Technology as a Platform

We live in a platform-dominated web: Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc.

Abstracts technical detail away from users Average user doesn't know how to program Even those who do usually use frameworks

and APIs Not too long ago, these platforms were

themselves built from the ground up ...but what are the consequences of that?

Most Popular Technology Platforms by the Numbers

Open Source

http://royal.pingdom.com/2009/05/29/the-8-most-successful-open-source-products-everhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systemshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_web_browsershttps://managewp.com/14-surprising-statistics-about-wordpress-usagehttp://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide

The predominant platform type is clear

Closed Source

• Linux – 1.61%• Firefox – 10.72%• Wordpress – 74.6 million sites

• Windows - 86.34%• Chrome - 50.25%• Facebook – 1.44 billion active users

If This Then That

Interoperability Internet & web succeeded because of open

standards (TCP/IP, HTML, etc.) What kinds of standards will we see for

Internet of Things & cloud? What “building blocks” will we have for our

future technology? Such blocks are the “nature” of technology

(says Brian Arthur) If we don't build the blocks, someone else

will

Thank You

Jeremy Pesnerabout.me/thepezman

jp659@georgetown.edu