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Biofuel in the future fossil-free energy system:

The Nordic perspective

Building a sustainable European biofuel industry

Gothenburg, 05.11.2019

Torjus Folsland Bolkesjø

Professor, Norwegian University of Life Sciences

THE NORDIC BIOMASS RESOURCES

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Forest biomass Agro biomass Waste biomass

Nordic biomass potentials (GWh/Year)

Finland

Sweden

Norway

Denmark

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Nordic forest biomass potentials (GWh/year)

Source: Econ Poyry and Nordic Energy Research (2018)

WOOD-BASED BIOFUEL IS ONE COMPONENT IN

A LARGE RENEWABLE-BASED VALUE CHAIN

From Jaastad, Rørstad & Bolkesjø., 2019

3

FOREST STOCK AND STOCK AVAILABLE FOR WOOD

SUPPLY INCREASES

Graphics from European Forest Institute (2017)

4

Andre produkter og tjenester fra skogarealetEUROPEAN CONSUMPTION OF PRINTING PAPER

IS DECLINING

NORDIC FOREST INDUSTRIES

– DIFFERENT STRATEGIES AND DIFFERENT OUTCOMES

Source Midttun & Piccini,2018

Stock prices for

leading Nordic pulp

and paper compaines

(2000=100)

NEW FOREST PRODUCTS ENTERING

THE MARKET?

6

EnergyPower, heat & transportation

Materials and chemicals

Food and Feed

Based on Ministerie van LNV (2007), NHO (2016) & Jonsson et al (2016)

Vo

lum

e

Valu

e a

dd

ed

Health and lifestylePharma, fine chemicals

A FOSSIL FREE EU ENERGY SECTOR:

STILL MAJOR CHALLENGES

7

EU energy

consumption

Electriciy-

specific

Transportation

Heating

and

cooling

Sources: EU Heating and Cooling strategy & AEBIOM

Renewble

share: 5%Heating and

cooling: 50%Transportation::

32%

El-specific:

18%

Renewble

share: 16%

Renewble

share: 27%

BARRIER OF WOOD-BASED BIOFUELS:THEIR COST

Source: Mustapha, Tørmborg & Bolkesjø (2016)

Upper estimate

First generation biofuel

Lower estimate

Fossil fuel

Cost estimates from the literature

MODEL RESULT:

PROFITABLE WOOD-BASED BIOFUEL VOLUMES

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9

Bill

ion L

Cost/price of alternative fuel (€/L)

20%

10%

Source: Jaastad, Rørstad, & Bolkesjøl.(2019)

MODEL RESULT:

PROFITABLE WOOD-BASED BIOFUEL VOLUMES

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9

Bill

ion L

Cost/price of alternative fuel (€/L)

20%

10%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 10 20 30 40

Biomass (pulpwood) price

Mill m3Biomass price

(NOK/ m3

Increased

harvest

Share of wood-based biofuel in the Nordic transport sector

Harvest

residues

Imports

Reduced

wood use in

paper

industries

Source: Jaastad, Bolkesjø, Rørstad & Trømborg.(2019)

Preliminary model results:

Emission reductions by using biomass for heat versus

biofuel

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

5 10 14 25 37 48 59 81 103 15 24 32 48 63 79 94 111 127

2030 2040

TW

h o

r m

illio

n to

n C

O2eq

mill

ion

to

n C

O2eq -

red

uctio

n

€/ton CO2eq

Emission reduction

biomass for heating

Emission reduction

biomass for transportation

Use of biomass

Larger

difference for

high carbon

prices in

power and

heat

Larger

difference for

high carbon

prices in

power and

heat

THANK YOU!

Contact: torjus.bolkesjo@nmbu.no