big data' targetjobs breakfast news 28 november 2013

BIG DATA

AvenueThursday 28 November

OUR 30TH

EVENT

AGENDA FOR TODAYWelcome and GTI update – Simon Rogers

THE ECONOMIC FORECASTDennis will (in keeping with the theme of the day) note a shift in the way that (Big) Data is used

in economic forecasting; with economists moving away from big econometric models and adopting a more behavioural approach.

THE ERA OF BIG DATALord Daniel Finkelstein OBE, Executive Editor and Chief Leader Writer, The Times believes that

communication and manipulation of data has driven social and political history. His view is that the era of ‘Big Data’ is just the latest stage in this development.

DATA, DATA EVERYWHEREStephen will share his plans for using data to support members’ recruitment strategies and will draw from a number of recruiter examples to demonstrate how data and research is currently

being used to plan recruitment campaigns and evaluate their impact.“AND OUR SURVEY SAYS...”

Marcus thinks there’s a big problem with the way graduate research is used: even if we’ve got the data, we don’t know what to do with it. He’ll talk through the way he evaluates research,

and suggest ways to turn pages of data into pragmatic conclusions.

WE WANT TO SEE YOUR TWEETS!

• #MrToast

GTI acquires Inside Buzz

• Inside Buzz.co.uk offers students, graduates and young professionals an inside look at companies and careers based on interviews with 1000s of employees at the UK’s top companies

• Existing employer content will be incorporated into the TARGETjobs ‘employer hubs’ alongside the existing employer profiles and our own company insights, helping provide the most comprehensive overview of an organisation

• Opportunity for employers to enhance their existing profile and promote by surveying their recent graduate intake on matters as diverse as culture, hours, interview process, training and career prospects

TARGETjobs Premium Employer Hub

• Allows employers to explain exactly why the best graduates should apply to them

• Help shape your graduate recruitment programme via feedback from your recent graduate intake using an Inside Buzz questionnaire

• Benchmark your organisation in up to 20 categories against the competition

• In 2014 we are launching an internship/placement questionnaire

Our launch offer

• Intro cost of £500 • Survey set up • Survey promotion help• Data collection• Employer collaboration• Key content & reviews published on TARGETjobs• Key findings / data available for employers

Record traffic – TARGETjobs

NOW over 1 million

trendence UK Graduate Barometer

• Brand new London-based research centre• Dedicated UK research team• 25,000 students will take part over next 6 months• 400 employers• A NEW diversity focus for 2014 – covering ethnicity,

nationality, social mobility, gender…

As well as…..uniquely surveying students in a way that generates insights by year group, Russell Group vs non-Russell Group and by individual campuses, offering a bespoke competitor analysis and much more….

Bespoke reports

Workshop

Online tool

NEW trendence Law Student Barometer

• 50+ key STEM course campuses

• 4000+ responses• STEM female students only,

cut by year groupCompetitor AnalysisA NEW! Diversity focus Line your firm up against the

top 10 firms that STEM females most want to work for – and find out why!

• 25 key law course campuses

• 3000+ responses• Law & non-law students,

cut by year groupCompetitor AnalysisA NEW! Diversity focus Collecting 25% more

responses from Law Students @ target group campuses and courses

NEW trendence STEM female Student Barometer

Bespoke reports

Workshop

Online tool

National Graduate Employability Conference• The only employability

conference in the UK to bring together 600–800 multi-disciplinary undergraduates with recruiters and universities

• Keynote speaker announced shortly

• Facilitated by Radio 1’s Aled Haydn-Jones

• Presentations, cross-sector panel debates, interactive mixed-table discussions and networking sessions

• Sponsorship opportunities available including hosting your own table of students from your target course area

New 22 April

at Wembley Stadium

Main event sponsors

THE ECONOMIC FORECAST

Dennis Turner, former chief economist, HSBC Bank plc

OSBORNE’S MISSED TARGETS

The growth shortfall

0

1

2

3

4

201520142013201220112010

%

2013 Budget

2012 Budget

2011 Budget

2010Budget

Annual GDP growth forecasts in each Budget

…means more borrowing

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2010 Budget

2011Budget

2012 Budget

2013 Budget

Public sector net borrowing (£bn)

…and higher debt levels

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16

% o

f G

DP

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

% o

f GD

P

2010 Budget 2013 Budget

2011 Budget 2012 Budget

Public sector net debt:

THE FAILURE OF FORECASTING

GDP Forecasts 2013

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

% a

nn

ua

l g

row

th

Highest

Median

Lowest

Fixed investment forecasts, 2013

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

NovSepJulMayMarJan

Lowest

Median

Highest

Export forecasts, 2013

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

An

nu

al %

ch

an

ge

Highest

Median

Lowest

WHERE TO IN 2014 – THE CONSENSUS

Forecasts for 2014 - GDP

0

1

2

3

GDP

%

Highest Lowest

Forecasts for 2014 – Consumer spending

0

1

2

3

4

5

Cons ExpGDP

%

Highest Lowest

Forecasts for 2014 - Investment

0

3

6

9

12

InvestCons ExpGDP

%

Highest Lowest

Forecasts for 2014 - Exports

0

3

6

9

12

ExportsInvestCons ExpGDP

%

Highest Lowest

Forecasts for 2014 - Inflation

0

3

6

9

12

InflationExportsInvestCons ExpGDP

%

Highest Lowest

Forecasts for 2014 - Unemployment

0

3

6

9

12

Unemploy.InflationExportsInvestCons ExpGDP

%

Highest Lowest

WHERE TO IN 2014 – MY VIEW

but now likely to ease

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% c

han

ge m

on

th o

n m

on

th

CPI RPI

Forecast

Target

Range

So interest rates to stay low

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

%

Forecast

and sterling to remain competitive

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

$/£

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

€/£

Sterling weaker

US$ / £ (L axis)

euro / £ (R axis)

Forecast

GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%)

Where is growth coming from?

A slow consumer recovery

-3.5

-2.5

-1.5

-0.5

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% C

HA

NG

E

Consumer spending growth (%)

Forecast

GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%) +

Investment (15%)

Where is growth coming from?

…but not spending

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

%

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

£ b

illion

Investment relative to post-tax surplus(L axis)

Level of investment (R axis)

Investment by Private Non-financial Corporations

Investment to pick up……at last

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% a

nn

ua

l g

row

th

Business Investment

Forecast – OBR 2013

GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%) +

Investment (15%) +

Government spending (23%)

Where is growth coming from?

Government continues in deficit

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016-17 2017-18

£ bn

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

%

Net borrowing (L axis)

% of GDP* (R axis)

GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%) +

Govt consumption (23%) +

Investment (15%) +

Net trade (-2%) (Exports 30% – Imports 32%)

Where is growth coming from?

Trade becomes a plus for growth

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

% o

f G

DP

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

An

nu

al %

ch

an

ge

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEFICIT (LHS)

Annual export growth (% RHS)

Annual import growth (% RHS)

TURNING THE CORNER

Sluggish growth as good as it gets

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

%

QUARTERLY

ANNUAL

Long-term average

Forecast

Thank you

THE ERA OF BIG DATA

Lord Daniel Finkelstein OBE, Executive Editor and Chief Leader Writer, The Times

Data, Data Everywhere

Stephen Isherwood, CEO, Association of Graduate Recruiters

Data, Data Everywhere

• UK Graduate market is not short on data points– Salaries and vacancies: AGR 22,000 vacancies– Student market research: trendence 400

employers– Destinations: HECSU 243, graduates– HE sector: HESSA 2,496,645 HE students– Application data: UCAS 653,600 university

applicants

What external data can tell a recruiter

• Gender split by subject studied• UCAS tariff by institution and course• Race profile by university• The career preferences of graduates• What jobs graduates end up doing

What internal data can tell a recruiter• Are relevant or non-relevant students more or less successful in

your business?• Does a UCAS tariff really predict success in your organisation?• Is your selection process efficient, biased, cost effective?• Drive business engagement• Link strategy to business needs• Help set level of investment• Set benchmarks to measure your team’s performance• Allows you to reward success• Enables you to map the candidate experience• Helps drive efficiency improvements• Measures competitiveness

The business case for more budget

Why spend money on graduate recruitment when there are

360,000 students and 83 applicants per vacancy?

The business case for more budget

Graduated with a 1st or 2:1 240,000 (HESA)

24% have AAB+ 57,600 (UCAS)

Minus 14% going to further study 49,600 (DLHE)

7% want accounting/financial services3,472 (trendence)

Professional services vacancies 5,300 (AGR)

Shortfall 1,828

The business case for better interviewers

Applications 100 100Testing 60 601st IV 30 30Assessment centre 12 17Offer 7 7Offer accepts 6 5

“In God we trust, everyone else bring data”

Michael Bloomberg

“AND OUR SURVEY SAYS...”

Marcus Body, Head of Research, Work Group

Research in the War for Talent…

“A great part of the information obtained in war is contradictory, a still greater part is false, and by far the greatest part is of a doubtful character.”

An imperfect storm.

We have more reliable data……so we rely more on data

We have more unreliable data too…and sometimes we’re relying on that.

Critical analysis is more important than ever.

The critical eye:

• Who did the research?

• What is their commercial/political interest?

• Do you trust their integrity?

• Do you trust their competence?

• Have they shared the source data?

• Have they shared the method?

The wrong researcher

Survey reveals a flawless red carpet look can be yours for just £323

20% of men self-conscious about beach body on holiday

Single men change bedsheets only 4 times per year

Boring Facebook statuses named as number one annoying internet habit

The wrong researcher – the tell-tale signs

Have they stated:

•Why they did the research?And is there an obvious answer, with an obvious outcome they set out

to find?

•The number of participants?If not, keep your eyes peeled for suspiciously small-number

percentages (e.g. 16.6%, 12.5%)

•When the survey was conducted?Is this recycled “old news” and is it still relevant?

•What format the survey took?Face-to-face/online. When? How?

The critical eye:

Who EXACTLY did they ask?

How did they source this group?

What incentives were offered?

Are this group relevant to your interests?

If partially, what proportion?

The wrong sample

1) The very big…

“43% of students at UK Universities…”

2) The very small…

“A focus group of 12 economists at Nottingham…”

3) The “not actually students any more”…

“67% of last year’s intake now say…”

A few simple questions…

1) Does this sample contain my ideal candidates? If yes, how large a

proportion are they of it?

2) Are they likely to be consistent with this group? Am I looking for

exceptional individuals, or typical ones?

3) Could I do something better? Or something that will “check” the

validity of this sample?

The wrong source/audience

The critical eye:

What EXACTLY did they ask?

Is this really what you wanted to know?

If partially, to what extent?

What answer options were given?

Have they released ALL answers?

The wrong question1) The “no alternative”…

“Is a company’s environmental record important to you?”

2) The “ridiculous specificity”…

“On a scale of one to ten, how important is training?”

3) The “unreasonable expectations”…

“Which FMCG employer are you most likely to apply to?”

4) The “Where’s my answer option?”…

“Which of the following do you use to…?”

Open vs closed questions

Closed questions (e.g. rankings/scores/options) are quick and easy

to answer, and quick and easy to analyse. But you sacrifice

understanding exactly what people thought.

Open questions (typed answers) give you a much fuller insight into

what people really thought, but are much more time-consuming and

complex to process and analyse.

The wrong question – an example

A survey of 14-15 year olds:

The critical eye:

Does the data ‘prove’ the conclusions?

Does the data support the conclusions?

Are there other interpretations?

What about those prior interests?

Can you find supporting results elsewhere?

Can you find alternative analysis elsewhere?

The wrong conclusion

1) The hyperbolic imperative

“SOMETHING MUST BE DONE…!”

2) The wild extrapolation

“50% of my survey, so 50% of everyone…”

3) The iffily corroborated

“This backs the significant body of opinion that says…”

4) The downright dishonest

“My survey says you should buy my product/service”

An example of selective analysis…

“…most people think public services are as good or better”

A quick regraph of the data…

“BBC austerity survey: why the public is wrong this time”“Every now and again, an opinion poll will be published which appears to show that most people don't know what they're talking about. A fairly typical headline in this spirit is "British public wrong about nearly everything, survey shows". In that case, the public's ignorance on issues such as welfare, crime and immigration favoured the government.

And the latest poll from the BBC about public services under the Tories could represent something similar. Most people when asked about the state of hospitals, schools, colleges, GP surgeries, and so on either think they have stayed the same, or are getting better.”

“The majority of people would not directly experience those cuts, and their effects are unlikely to be detected when the poll asks mainly about the consumption of key infrastructure.”

Actually, the Guardian are wrong too…

A general word on charts…

A matter of perspective

3D is for the cinema, not for good data representation.Watch out for colour and data labels too…

We love straight lines…

xkcd.com/1007

Correlation and causation

Correlation is a measure of relationship between two mathematical variables or measured data values and is a mathematical property.

Causation is the relation between an event (the cause) and a second event (the effect), where the second event is understood as a consequence of the first, and is a philosophical concept explored at length by Aristotle.

xkcd.com/552

Correlation doesn't imply causation, but it does waggle its eyebrows suggestively and gesture furtively while mouthing 'look over there'.

Be careful of assuming an answer

“Interns don’t join us as graduates, so they must not enjoy the internships. Can we survey what they don’t like?”

AND OUR SURVEY SAYS…WHO DID THE RESEARCH?. . . . . 38

WHO WAS ASKED? . . . . . . . . 27

WHAT WERE THEY ASKED?. . . . . 20

HOW WAS IT ANALYSED? . . . . . 15

One final warning…

Confirmation bias:

•Ignoring evidence which doesn’t fit your view.•Over-rating evidence that says you’re right.

“When I find new information, I change my mind. What do you do?”Keynes (possibly)

“Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change”Hawking

Get in touch

marcus.body@workcomms.com020 7492 0057

2014

Dates for TARGETjobs Breakfast News 2014 will be available soon.See you next year!